] Malcolm Collins: Hello, Symone. I’m excited to be here with you today. World-changing, civilization-changing information has dropped, and no one is talking about it. And so we need to talk about it for our fans here, because at least they can be informed aboutI’m gonna... Y’all, guys, guys, guys, you think I am overstating things here, so I’ll just go through the data we’re gonna be looking at real quick.[00:00:24] And if you have an understanding of economics, you’re gonna immediately be like, “What?” happening. So, throughout the course of the war oil, gas prices didn’t really go up that much.[00:00:37] Simone Collins: The I- the Iran war?[00:00:38] Malcolm Collins: The Iran war. Okay. And, and now when, when the, they had the brief peace they were actually at a rate that around what they were at the beginning of the war.[00:00:46] Okay. And we’ll go over the prices, but that’s kind of crazy given that oil’s still not coming through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, what a lot of people are saying, because they want to dunk on Trump without actually knowing, like, globally, geopolitically what’s going on, they go, “Oh, well, this is because the US released their strategic reserves.”[00:01:06] The reality of the situation is that, that the US releasing its strategic reserves really did not impact the situation that much at all. What actually was the big impact on this situation was China reducing the oil that they are consuming. In fact, 74% of the entire global decline in crude oil imports and trade came just from China consuming less.[00:01:34] All right? The, the amount less that China is consuming has been larger than, and dramatically larger than, the impact of the US, all of Europe, and Japan releasing their strategic reserves combined.[00:01:52] Simone Collins: How sudden or gradual has this been? ‘Cause I know China’s been investing heavily in solar. Is that what’s going on maybe in renewables?[00:02:00] Malcolm Collins: Not at all. No. So the, their, their solar investments have been major. Now around 50% of the cars sold in China are electric- Yeah ... which is pretty crazy. But that accounts for a r- around 2% reduction in the amount of oil they use every year historically. What?[00:02:15] Simone Collins: Oh,[00:02:15] Malcolm Collins: my-[00:02:15] So-[00:02:15] Simone Collins: I mean, I th- man, oh, I thought that would be way more significant.[00:02:18] What’s the point of electric cars if that’s all that they do?[00:02:22] Malcolm Collins: That’s, that’s where China’s... Well, I mean, keep in mind, it’s been happening for a while at this point, but we’re talking about something that happened over the course of a few months. Now, what you[00:02:29] Simone Collins: could say- Right. So w- okay, you are saying this is very sudden, this like, it was like this and then went like this.[00:02:35] Malcolm Collins: Mm-hmm.[00:02:35] Simone Collins: Okay.[00:02:36] Malcolm Collins: Now what you could say is, “Well, this must be because China released or is using a lot of their strategic reserves as well.” But this would also be wrong. Over the first few months of the war, actually China continued to stockpile more into their strategic reserves.[00:02:54] Simone Collins: Implying they didn’t have demand.[00:02:57] Malcolm Collins: Yes, which we’re gonna get to. But then now they are using some of their strategic reserves, but it’s not, like, a huge amount. It doesn’t account for a huge amount of this. And on top of all of this China’s seaborne imports, if you’re like, “What does this mean for China? How much less oil are they bringing in?”[00:03:13] Mm. Have reduced by 40%. And I will note here that the actual decline in demand appears to be bigger than that. Specifically, if we’re looking at all of the oil, both domestic and foreign oil, and we’re looking at their refining capacity, it has[00:03:36] Almost a, a 40% reduction there as well. So we’re just seeing significantly less oil being consumed or planned to be consumed in the near future. Whew. Now, if this is all confusing to you, I’ve got to pull this up[00:03:55] Simone Collins: You gonna show me a graph? This is gonna help, like, ‘cause I, it’s, it’s really hard for me to, like, wrap my head around [00:04:00] this[00:04:04] Malcolm Collins: So historically, when we were looking at China, like when economists were looking at China, because China always lies about its data or when it’s not lying, it doesn’t release it. Like in 2023, for the first time, they stopped releasing youth unemployment statistics, and they haven’t released it since.[00:04:18] And if China’s not releasing something, it probably looks catastrophically bad. And so the way that we historically attempted to judge how the Chinese economy was doing was something called the Li Keqiang Index. And what it looked at was electricity consumption, rail and fain- freight volumes, and bank loan gross.[00:04:39] And this is something we also do when we’re trying to determine the economic state of places like North Korea that are also the fuzzy with the amount of data that they put out. What this means for China It’s for a long time everyone’s like, “Didn’t China’s, like, real estate industry completely collapse?”[00:04:57] And that was like 70% of personal savings in China, and one of the biggest asset classes in China. Why didn’t their economy collapse? It’s been a big mystery for a lot of people. Why doesn’t it look like the Chinese economy collapsed? And I think the answer here that I’m gonna put is, the key word in that is why doesn’t it look like they collapsed?[00:05:19] So China really hates looking bad. They really hate looking weak. All right?[00:05:25] Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah. They, they can’t look like they’re losing ever.[00:05:28] Malcolm Collins: And and they know that one of the core ways that the West judges how their economy is doing is their oil consumption. So suppose their economy had actually almost completely collapsed over the past few years.[00:05:45] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:05:46] Malcolm Collins: And as a result, the government didn’t want anyone to know. What was one of the key things that they would have to do? They would have to basically artificially stimulate oil consumption to make it look like the rates remained constant.[00:06:02] Simone Collins: Sure.[00:06:03] Malcolm Collins: Now suppose all of a sudden China got a green flag to have their oil rate consumption drop out of the blue an incredible amount, and have people not say, “Oh, your economy secretly collapsed.”[00:06:19] Simone Collins: Oh, they thought they could get away with this. And they largely did, if it wasn’t for you meddling kids. They[00:06:25] Malcolm Collins: large- Yeah, if it wasn’t for the meddling Malcolm and Simone and the, how many people watch this podcast? Oh,[00:06:30] Simone Collins: I get no credit for this one. I had no idea. I’m just watching people you know, break out in hives over The Odyssey.[00:06:37] That’s all, that’s all I can see online.[00:06:39] Malcolm Collins: And all[00:06:39] Simone Collins: the- Meanwhile in China ...[00:06:40] Malcolm Collins: all the empty theaters for The Odyssey. I don’t, I don’t know. I think it, it probably is doing well-ish. And I[00:06:47] Simone Collins: don’t know if it’s- It’s a big fancy IMAX film. It’s doing fine, but let’s get back to China because- The biggest fear that we’ve always had-[00:06:50] this is what we should actually be talking about ...[00:06:52] Malcolm Collins: on the left is that the left, I was like, can you imagine how hard this battle would be if our enemy was actually competent at things? Like if they made good movies. W- extra woke. And now we had one, one ever maybe. And people are going to see it. And now people are going to take that as affirmation that they can be as woke as they want.[00:07:11] So let’s hope for a few more woke flops to teach the story again. But anyway back to what’s going on with China, ‘cause this is so much crazier. So all of the potential... Well, first let’s look at the timeline of prices here, because it, it actually blows out a few of the alternate theories, which we’ll also be going over.[00:07:27] Okay. Like are, are they doing war games? Are they doing i- i- is this to like put pressure on Iran to get oil cheaper? Are they which isn’t really the way that this type of negotiation works, but- Let’s go into this. And, and for anybody who’s wondering, like, the big mystery of why the global economy is doing so well right now, in large part the global economy is doing well because of this China collapse.[00:07:54] Historically when you’ve had oil crunches that happen due to wars in the Middle East and stuff [00:08:00] like that, because oil is largely an inelastic economic thing, right? That means that the, this the amount of demand is not variable based on the price. You know, you still need to run an entire country.[00:08:10] Mm-hmm. The price just goes up when the amount drops. Like the US would never even have the capacity to say, “We just need 40% less oil now,” right? Like that, that’s a crazy thing. Just tell everyone, “Yeah, just use oil 40% less going forward.” Even China doesn’t have that kind of capacity. The, the, the...[00:08:30] For me, the only explanation is that the numbers of oil imports had been artificially boosted. Mm ... because even the CCP, without some form of, like, external, like we all saw that they were telling everyone to, you know, s- stop using their cars and stop doing this and stop doing that. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe then we’d be able to make out, oh, there’s some big government campaign that’s getting everyone to consume oil a ton less or shutting down tons of factories or something like that.[00:08:55] But we’re not seeing that. And because we’re not seeing that, the only thing that could create this invisible drop out of nowhere demand in oil is an actual economic collapse. Mm ... and I’ll note here that oil is not the primary fuel driver in China. The primary fuel driver is coal. But it would be way easier for China to be consuming less coal than they were telling everyone else- Oh, sure[00:09:20] because coal in China is produced mostly domestically. So they don’t ha- you- it’s, it’s easier to hide, easier, easier to obfuscate. But with oil... And that’s also probably why they thought it was worth doing this, ‘cause they’re like, “Oh, it’s just our oil demand. Like, we’ll just fake this for however long this economic crisis lasts.”[00:09:39] So let’s go over oil price. So, oil was at around $72 per barrel right before the war, okay?[00:09:46] Simone Collins: Mm-hmm.[00:09:47] Malcolm Collins: The war starts it goes to 119 per barrel. And at the time many analysts where they thought, like what normally happens to this, they thought it could go to 150 to $200. But it only peaked at 126 and then it dropped sharply.[00:10:01] This was in like mid-June, July, so, so pretty quickly. And after that it only sort of, spiked again at 119 at one point. And then as the war wound down[00:10:11] oh, that didn’t post.[00:10:12] $87. So yeah, about what it was before the war started[00:10:16] Malcolm Collins: But the war ran down and it hit about what it was beforehand. Mm. This was... okay, yeah, $72. So this was early July 2026. Now, this is really important because it, it then has shot up ag- again since it started s- you know, conflict started spiking in the region.[00:10:33] But they... It went back to pre-war levels the moment the peace treaty was signed, which is crazy because oil wasn’t coming through the strait again, right? Like, th- this is eh, that, that sort of would seem like an artificially low price for oil during that period, unless you had grokked that China didn’t plan to raise its oil consumption again.[00:10:54] Right. And this gets really interesting because when that happened, China did not increase their consumption again. N- not only did they not increase their consumption again or raise intake capacity again they also didn’t, what was it? Sorry, gotta pull up my notes here.[00:11:14] They, they also didn’t increase the amount that they were producing or anything. Like it, it w- it’s just honestly very strange behavior. So let’s go over the alternate explanations for this other than China’s economy secretly collapsed over the past few years, and they’ve been pretending that it hasn’t.[00:11:30] First is this is a b- buyer strike or price negotiation where China stopped buying to force sellers to lower prices. a pure negotiating tactic would usually mean pausing imports while still running refineries hard using existing stock. Instead, they are aggressively cutting refineries. Hmm.[00:11:49] This looks like actual weak demand rather than a temporary bargaining ploy. And keep in mind, China has giant stockpiles of oil, so they could absolutely just keep their refineries running. Hmm ... this is not the behavior we’d [00:12:00] expect if this was part of price negotiations. Also, it’d be a really bad and stupid time for China to do that as well. Because one of the things that’s obviously gonna be on the table for Trump when he’s doing negotiations with Iran is going to be to lift sanctions on oil for Iran. Like, that’s almost some- certainly something that Iran’s gonna walk out of the, the, the conflict with in terms of, like, the things that they want versus the things that we want versus the things we don’t really care about, right?[00:12:26] And if we’re ending the thing that we were punishing them, you know, we’re gonna end that. So now China Iran all of a sudden has access to global markets, and China is attempting to punish them. Iran’s gonna be like, “Oh, well, screw you guys. I have tons of other customers now, and frankly, you, you can’t punish me like that.”[00:12:42] Like, it, it just doesn’t, it won’t work, right?[00:12:44] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:12:44] Malcolm Collins: Yeah. So it’s, it’s it doesn’t even make, like, strategic sense from China’s perspective. Next is commercial margin protection. Refinery cut runs to avoid losing money when crude was expensive while domestic fuel prices were controlled slash low.[00:12:59] Simone Collins: Hmm.[00:12:59] Malcolm Collins: Even after crude prices fell significantly later in the period, refining runs stayed depressed. If it was purely about margins, runs should have recovered once crude became cheaper. They didn’t. A- again, this is, you know, it’s like, oh, well, you know, we wanna run this at an economic price. Yeah, but then why didn’t you start when it fell back, went, went back to the same price it was before the war?[00:13:20] Simone Collins: Mm-hmm.[00:13:20] Malcolm Collins: Next this is I, I think people might think the most plausible of them, which is a war gaming Taiwan endurance drill. Taiwan, China’s greatest threat is a blockade of the Strait of Malacca because they get, you know, 80% of their oil from afar. They get a, a, a good chunk of their fertilizer from afar as well.[00:13:39] And they also import food, so they’d be quite effed. But, like, everyone’s like oil, energy is the most important of the things that would be cut off in a blockade of the Strait of Malacca.[00:13:49] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:13:49] Malcolm Collins: So it, it, it might make sense for them to be like, “Yeah, let’s, let’s try these plans that we had set up for that.”[00:13:54] The problem is, is the pattern doesn’t match a stockpile endurance th- test. Hmm. They cut off refining runs quite hard rather than carefully rationing or maximizing stock life. Behavior looked more like responding to weak demand than, Basically, okay you’re, you’re trying to do, like, a war gaming thing.[00:14:13] You would do rationing. You wouldn’t do cutting the refining capacity, and you certainly wouldn’t leave it cut at the end of the war when assuming you want to attack Taiwan in the near future, you want to maximize your oil stores for such a contingency. Especially if you’ve just been drawing them down a bit.[00:14:35] So,[00:14:36] Simone Collins: So that can’t... Yeah, that’s not, or I guess less likely. I still see that as more likely than everything else I’ve heard so far.[00:14:42] Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, I mean, the, the, I... The, the other thing is China would tell us if that’s what it was doing. The, the-[00:14:51] Simone Collins: What do you mean? Why? Oh, because they wanna make us worried and- True.[00:14:54] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, the, the, the core purpose of running a, a war game around a, a shutdown of the Strait of Malacca is to show the United States, or one of the core purposes, that it wouldn’t help or matter. Because if you could do that, then you could get, you know, demoralize us into not doing it, or show that, like, us doing it would actually last for a really long time or something.[00:15:15] Simone Collins: Hmm.[00:15:18] Malcolm Collins: So, I, I just can’t think of a lot of other potential things. People also need to consider how the, the position China was in after COVID China globally had positioned itself as, like, part of the world’s factory, right? Like, you make the cheap parts in China, and then the next bit of the bob it gets made in this European country, and the next last bit of the bob it gets made in the United States, right?[00:15:44] Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And that was how everything was done. And then China just shut down tons of factories and cities and ports, right, for years at a time. And that, e- everything that required Chinese tooling, the Chinese factory ecosystem, was basically like, [00:16:00] “Oh, let’s build contingencies to China.” And then everyone knew who might set up something in China is like, “Of course I’m not setting up critical components,” and generally everything is a critical component ‘cause you need all the pieces at the end of the day, in China.[00:16:15] Especially ‘cause China isn’t that inexpensive anymore. It’s, it’s cheaper now to set up a factory from start to finish in terms of, like, a production line in Mexico than China, and Mexico has, like, way better trade deals with the United States than China does, right? And it’s way closer and way cheaper, and y- less you know, ways you can get F’d because it’s not, you know, a, a country that’s, that’s friendly to you.[00:16:38] So China’s in a very weak position. They had the crash of their housing system, which is, which is still ongoing where 70% of individual Chinese i- investors, like individuals, keep their money, their wealth in housing stuff. Mm-hmm. And this can be, like, 32 times your yearly salary in, like, some cities and stuff.[00:16:57] Like, this is, like, y- just, like, your one house. This is, like, super generational wealth. And at, at the same time as all this, see our episode about the secret coup in China that you weren’t told about.[00:17:08] Simone Collins: Yeah, that was wild.[00:17:09] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, China’s very good at keeping a crackdown on things. Yeah, they[00:17:11] Simone Collins: are ...[00:17:12] Malcolm Collins: the, the central, for people who aren’t familiar with what happened during that, the central governing body of the CCP ended up having, there were four people left in it. Everyone else had been disappeared, and two of the four people, basically Xi Jinping and the Secret Service guy, arrested the other two overnight one night. Now that’s actually illegal by CCP rules. You needed a majority, and they didn’t have the majority to vote the arrest of the other people.[00:17:39] They just basically took over what was left after having die in mysterious circumstances or otherwise removing, I think, three or four other people who were previously on the council. Mm-hmm. ‘Cause it used to be, like, a, a, a, like a, like a six or seven person council to, to run the country. And there are rumors, and I think very substantiated rumors that the night before one of the other guys had ta- tried to have Xi killed.[00:18:02] They, they, they there was a, a, a, a skirmish and I think it was something like 42 people died. Like a actual almost attempted civil war. But it was shut down. So, you know, Xi, even if you don’t like Xi, you can say, well, he probably felt forced to handle this situation, and that’s why people within the CCP didn’t make a big stink that they went against CCP law to arrest half of the, the other half of the ruling council that was left.[00:18:25] Yeah. They, they, they got rid of much more than that. But what this means is power has hugely consolidated around Xi. And Xi is a famously incompetent leader. He is, he is, he is no Deng Xiaoping. A- again, people are like, “Malcolm, he did the Tiananmen Square massacre. How can you say he was competent?”[00:18:43] Those students were causing a mess. You know, he had done a lot for the people of China. Really worked on their... He made it a much more capitalist system, you know? C- capitalist fascism, like that’s, that’s a system that I don’t always hate if it’s making the lives of literally hundreds of millions of people dramatically better, which did happen under his reforms She, on the other hand, has done nothing meaningful to handle the birth rate situation, which is by far their biggest problem, or their water problem, see our video on that- Mm-hmm[00:19:12] um, which is their next biggest problem or really handle the real estate crisis, which could have been deflated significantly earlier. It’s like it- China isn’t even planning for the future anymore. It’s just Xi trying to extract as much as possible. Now, the reason I set all this up is Imagine you’re a rich person in China, and if you’re a rich person in China, you either basically are subservient to the CCP, look at, look at the Alibaba guy who they basically scared into hiding or you are working with the CCP.[00:19:43] Now, Xi’s been disappearing people left and right recently. What are you thinking? You’re probably like, “I wanna get my butt out of China,” right? Now, we’ve been seeing that. If people are wondering why Chinese investors keep inflating the housing markets in whatever city you happen to live near whether Vancouver [00:20:00] or San Francisco or London or wherever it’s because that is an enormous amount of capital flight out of China.[00:20:07] Simone Collins: Well, and this, this is after years of using various money laundering services. I think, what is it called? Money f- money flying, flying money? They’re very sophisticated networks that often integrate with drug cartels and other networks to get money out of China. And of course, sometimes people are using surrogacy and having kids in the United States to be able to move money.[00:20:27] It’s like, yeah, it, it, the, the amount of investment, there are multiple very large dark industries around getting people out of China if money-[00:20:37] Malcolm Collins: Right, but the, the important thing is from the perspective of the Chinese economy is- Mm ... this is pretty much everyone other than Xi Jinping that has a ton of wealth.[00:20:49] And I will note, when Xi did the coup and got rid of those two other guys, these two guys were longtime, like, you know the various party factions in China? Mm-hmm. These guys were in the Xi party faction. They were, like, Xi loyal- Yeah.[00:21:00] Simone Collins: Well, and one was a big time, a longtime military expert, right, who presumably[00:21:06] Malcolm Collins: maybe didn’t like the idea of going- Well, but the only, only people in the company who actually ha- had a a military history because- Yeah[00:21:09] you know, China hasn’t been to war in frigging ages. But the, the point I’m making here is it’s, like, even being a Xi ally doesn’t get you safe in China right now. So if I was a Chinese person with a lot of money, I’d be doing everything I can to get my money out of that country. And you know what’s not happening in China is the price of individual things in China i- like, the Chinese housing market is not high because of Western investors, okay?[00:21:33] Let me, let me put it that way, right? Mm-hmm. Worse than all of this you have w- what, what is bid up in China because of Western investors, and whenever you see somebody shilling, oh, like, China’s gonna be a great economy to invest in or anything like that, it’s always because they have some, like, huge amount of assets in China.[00:21:47] Like, BlackRock got, like, exclusive rights to do stuff with China, and then they started talking about how great it was. And Elon is allowed to do business in China with Tesla, which is very unusual. So he’s always talking about, oh, Chinese economy’s so good, oh, it’s so robust. So you know, big motivation to not tell you How bad things might actually be on the economic ground within China.[00:22:08] Simone Collins: Hmm.[00:22:08] Malcolm Collins: But yeah, that’s, that’s, that’s where I am on what’s going on in China right now. I think we can’t know exactly how bad this is, how bad of an economic collapse we’re actually seeing. But I think that this is the most plausible answer to how China was able to create a 40% drop their factories down to low 60% capacity basically overnight.[00:22:31] Simone Collins: Well, one thing that has me wondering, ‘cause I do consume one type of content from Chinese content creators specifically, and I’m like, “Huh, wait a second,” like why is this a type of content? It’s young women who live out of their cars. Like they’re, I guess, technically homeless, but their cars are really cool, and it’s so...[00:22:56] They’re so cute, and they’ve like tricked them out, and they have the little like hot pot things, and they cook their cute little meals, and everything’s pink. And some of them have like inflatable things that they like put out the back of their cars. It’s all, it’s a genre. I[00:23:09] Malcolm Collins: love my cute little dystopian stuff.[00:23:11][00:23:30] Simone Collins: Well, I mean, like I just started seeing the content randomly on Instagram alongside everything else that I consume like New England summers and cleaning content. But I don’t know, it’s, it’s kind of weird. I, I guess I never thought to question like why is the only Chinese creator content that I’m seeing homeless women living out of their cars, but being really cute about it?[00:23:56] So I wonder- ... if I’m seeing parts of this [00:24:00] without realizing[00:24:00] Malcolm Collins: it. That, that sounds like a d- I mean, if you’ve seen videos of like Chinese streets and like the way that their creator economy has, has begun to develop, it is- No ... so dystopian.[00:24:10] Simone Collins: Really? How so? How so?[00:24:12] Malcolm Collins: Okay, so one really crazy thing is, is there’s Chinese dating apps-[00:24:16] Simone Collins: Okay[00:24:17] Malcolm Collins: that are based on oh, I think it, it, they also have streaming apps based on this- Okay ... based on how close you are to a person. Mm. You know, it’s, it’s to ensure that like, you know, you’re getting the rich women and the rich women are getting the rich men, right? Like that’s- Okay ... you know, you know how the China is, right?[00:24:32] But it’s created- Oh ... these like entire like streets or like under bridge things where you will just see rows and rows of women with lighting equipment and like fake room setups behind them just, just lining- On the[00:24:47] Simone Collins: street? ...[00:24:48] Malcolm Collins: these roads, on the street, to make it look like they’re like in a house streaming like nearby one of the, in one of these wealthy neighborhoods.[00:24:58] Simone Collins: Oh, so then he’s scrolling and he sees this girl, like, streaming, and she’s hot, and she’s, she lives in the neighborhood.[00:25:06] Yeah.[00:25:08] Speaker 5: So this is kind of sad and dystopian. This huge group of people were seen live streaming under a bridge in China[00:25:25] Simone Collins: Dude, that’s so clever. Good for them. Get your bag, girl. Like, all the way. I love it. I- that is the kind of woman worth marrying, right? You don’t wanna marry some entitled trust fund kid, and I’ve met in...[00:25:40] Not entitled, v- actually very nice and friendly and well-meaning, but, like, I’ve met Chinese trust fund kids I would not marry them. They’re not marriage material.[00:25:49] Malcolm Collins: No, they, I think they are. I think what you haven’t met is a, the super ambitious and hungry Western women versus super ambitious and hungry[00:25:58] Simone Collins: Asian women.[00:25:59] No, so those are great, but I, the-[00:26:01] Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, no, no,[00:26:02] Simone Collins: no, no ... least Chinese phone kids I’ve met from China are not ambitious. They’re like- The point you’re making- ... literally flunking out of their universities.[00:26:07] Malcolm Collins: It, yeah, but what you miss, okay, is super ambitious Asian women, especially Chinese of all- Mm-hmm ... the Asian ethnicities are not- Oh, they’re[00:26:15] Simone Collins: ruthless.[00:26:15] They’re amazing. They’re wife material.[00:26:17] Malcolm Collins: No, no, they’re ruthless in exploiting you.[00:26:20] Simone Collins: Oh.[00:26:21] Malcolm Collins: They’re not like a, a, a ruthless super ambitious Western woman- Mm ... typically wants to work with you- Yeah ... to exploit society-[00:26:30] Simone Collins: Yeah ...[00:26:31] Malcolm Collins: for your collective family advantage.[00:26:33] Simone Collins: Mm.[00:26:34] Malcolm Collins: A super ambitious Chinese woman typically wants to exploit you maximally.[00:26:41] Simone Collins: Look, I believe, I think that we’re one to train one’s wife to not do that, both through, like, a strong prenup, but also to be like, “Look, I, it[00:26:52] Malcolm Collins: is your programming.” It’s really hard to do, Simone, because they don’t see themselves as, they’re not exploiting you just for themselves, they’re usually exploiting you for the sake of their family and their- Right[00:27:02] extended family.[00:27:03] Simone Collins: But I would un- understanding that, wouldn’t it make sense or work to explain to them that their upside is much higher if the whole family’s net worth is higher, which she can contribute to, rather than her just basically draining the husband as a resource until he’s no longer functional and then ending up back where she started?[00:27:22] Malcolm Collins: They don’t really see it that way. The more resources their family takes from your family, the more set up their family is once you go broke to give h- her a good life still. Like, that’s, that’s not really- I don’t know ... the way they would think about it.[00:27:36] Simone Collins: They would- I don’t know if the, I n- I ‘cause I have heard of, like, the wife training influencers, or, like, the, the influencers who train women to find a trophy husband.[00:27:44] Not trophy husband, sorry, rich husband, and be a trophy wife.[00:27:47] Malcolm Collins: I mean, and Ch- They’re, they’re- ... Chinese people[00:27:49] Simone Collins: can- ...[00:27:49] Malcolm Collins: ruthless,[00:27:49] Simone Collins: but- ...[00:27:50] Malcolm Collins: can, can comment here, people who’ve known, like, super ambitious Chinese women. But from what- Mm ... I’ve seen generally, they’re much they’re much less like you plus me against the world.[00:27:59] [00:28:00] Mm. It’s me and my family verse you.[00:28:02] Simone Collins: I mean, I’m, I don’t know. I, I think that the right woman on the street streaming with hustle would be a great wife, as long as you are on the same page about aligned incentives, and I think there are ways to align incentives Just kill her family. It’s easy, Malcolm.[00:28:19] Malcolm Collins: K- I, I, the, the, the, I, I disagree.[00:28:22] Look, it’s not that there aren’t ambitious women in China who would make it you plus me against the world, but these women are, like, running businesses and stuff like this. They’re not going to rich neighborhoods pretending to-[00:28:31] Simone Collins: Oh, right. They’re like... I- if they’re that competent, they could just start a business presumably.[00:28:35] Malcolm Collins: Yeah. They wouldn’t be... Their first instinct wouldn’t be to scam, right? And I’ll note here, I was saying in a recent video, and I’ve noticed, I think, like, we have some fans that I can only say are morally retarded, and I, I really wanna like- Oh, my God ... talk them to... So one of our fans- Oh, no ... was saying in relation to what I said in the last episode, and I just have to talk people through this so they can understand.[00:28:57] Simone Collins: Malcolm is[00:28:58] Malcolm Collins: saying[00:28:58] Simone Collins: this with love.[00:29:00] Malcolm Collins: They were like, “Why is it so immoral to pay for[00:29:05] OnlyFans, because of the negative externalities that has on society, but it’s not immoral to exploit social systems to benefit your family and children?” And it’s like H- how, this is like saying how is it less immoral for a woman to steal to feed her children than it is to rape someone?[00:29:28] Both have negative externalities. And it’s like, yeah, both have some negative externalities, but they can also have positive externalities that are greater than their negative externalities, right? Mm-hmm. Like, especially if you and your family and your culture wants a better future and has a more realistic plan for a better future than the aggregate person who otherwise might be draining those systems.[00:29:50] Hmm. And e- especially if you have no way to prevent them from draining, then you’re typically doing a net good by decreasing the time in which those systems can stay stable so that people have to set up something that can work in the long run instead of allowing other players to victimize your family.[00:30:07] Like, there’s a lot of ways that that’s actually potentially morally neutral, morally good. It depends on how your, like genuinely your own productivity, reach, everything like that, right? Like, what, what whether you have a family, whether you, you know, all of that stuff, right? Mm-hmm. The, the, you could ever not understand like it’s about what’s net good for society in the long run that no positive comes to anyone except your personal hedonism from you paying into OnlyFans.[00:30:36] That is, that is literally like rape, right? Because it’s, it’s one of these things that you’re doing to sexually satisfy yourself and does nothing but hurt other people in society. Literally no, no benefit at all. And I, I think a lot of people really struggle who didn’t grow up within a consequentialist culture with consequentialist logic.[00:30:57] Like, I almost feel like somebody who can’t see like Why is it w- worse to steal food and then gamble , with the money than to steal food and give it to your children? Why is, why is, I just, I can’t wrap my head around how one’s worse than the other. They’re both stealing.[00:31:15] You know, it’s like they, wh- how, but yeah that’s sorry, just like it’s like where I got so frustrated with it. I was like, how, because I get these sorts of comments all the time, and I’m like, how can you not like- At, at the end of the day, if you’re playing by a rule set that’s allowing you to be exploited by other bad actors, and this is true with China on, like, the global stage in the way that you know, some...[00:31:36] Also I’d be interested to see if Chinese people of my assessment of Chinese women if they would agree with it. And note here I’m talking in aggregate. Obviously not every Chinese woman or something like that, but the, the type of Chinese women who would go to a wealthy neighborhood and, and try to get a boyfriend.[00:31:50] Oh. Are they, are they more ruthless than Western gold diggers? And when I say g- Western, I’m, I’m thinking, like, American. They might [00:32:00] be at the same level as, like, Latin American women gold diggers. They, they’re, they’re pretty bad, too.[00:32:04] Simone Collins: Well, Malcolm, would you honestly expect a different result from an American woman who is live streaming next to...[00:32:09] I mean, we don’t really have similar proximity-based social networks that are super popular, but I mean- I don’t know ... you would expect the same result of an American woman who did that, too.[00:32:19] Malcolm Collins: I don’t think you’d see that in America.[00:32:21] Simone Collins: At that level of thirstiness?[00:32:24] Malcolm Collins: Y- I, well, I think- Come on. I don’t know ... the problem is, is that your average American woman who would fall into that category sees herself as above playing a game like that.[00:32:33] Although- Mm ... I, I, you’re the one who noted the American women in Manhattan going and stealing the the Stop & Fresh salad products. The salads. Yeah. Yeah. Because- Only green salad ... they thought if they stole Healthy Salads with men’s names on them, they would get, like- Well,[00:32:46] Simone Collins: especially double protein, ‘cause that means they must be hitting the gym.[00:32:48] But they’re finance bros, because they’re only stealing these from the Sweetgreen’s in FiDi. Of course, that was inspired by a joke, but women actually started doing it. And yeah- It’s a good idea ... and women, women hitting on... Yeah, it is, and women hitting on guys in bars in, in the Financial District. I...[00:33:03] Look, I admire anyone who knows what they want and goes out there to get it, all right? That’s, that is better than... I would prefer that for a partner than someone who I just meet by happenchance at a party, like someone sets us up. Those are low agency people. I am not introducing low agency people into my family’s lineage, okay?[00:33:28] I,[00:33:28] Malcolm Collins: I have people- Well, yeah, I, people are high agency. You’re right. Yeah. But I guess what I’m saying is every, like, economic indicator that I am aware of has said China should be doing a lot worse than it appears to be doing. And this could be sort of the gasket on that, where China was able to slip in a 50, sort of a 40% reduction in energy use.[00:33:49] And keep in mind, if you’re really, “Well, no, that’s only imported energy,” their refineries aren’t only the, the the low 60% capacity number is not only imported energy. That’s total refinery capacity, right? Like, And it’s also weird to me that China hasn’t, like, come up with some other explanation for the world as well.[00:34:08] Like, “Ah, here’s what we’re...” If it was something else, I would expect an explanation[00:34:15] Simone Collins: Yeah. No, this is extremely suspect. Extremely. Although here’s, here’s my problem with China. I’ve, you know, the, so many collapses have been predicted. You know, where it’s like, “Oh, they’re months from collapse,” you know, the real estate market again.[00:34:33] And yet they always find a way to prop it up. Like, and they just- They always[00:34:35] Malcolm Collins: find a way to make it look like it didn’t happen, but that’s not the truth to China. Like, the, the story that I always love to tell, ‘cause it’s one of my favorites, it’s during the Olympics, they had... You, you would walk by streets, and they made it look like all of their stoplights were powered by wind power, right?[00:34:52] Because they put these little wind turbines on top of them. But it turns out that the wind turbines to spin were actually drawing from the electrical grid to make it look like everything was wind powered, right? Oh, that’s great. Using extra coal. That’s fantastic ... you know,[00:35:06] Simone Collins: Coal powered w- performative wind turbines[00:35:08] Malcolm Collins: that, that is, that is the Chinese economy. It is faked on the surface.[00:35:13] Simone Collins: Oh, Lord. Okay.[00:35:15] Malcolm Collins: I will say, I have seen major improvement in Chinese AI models. My favorite not safe for work video model on RFAB is CGen. Oh, I thought- Which is a Chinese model ... was it CGen?[00:35:26] Simone Collins: It,[00:35:28] Malcolm Collins: it, sorry, it’s, CDance? ...[00:35:29] Simone Collins: CDance.[00:35:31] Right? CDance? No, maybe it is CGen. I don’t know. I really like it. It’s really, it’s really very good.[00:35:39] Malcolm Collins: It, it does, as a model, it, it, I mean, among the not safe for work model, China just does a lot of the, they do some of the best not safe for work image generation stuff. They do- Mm-hmm ... like Wan and stuff like that.[00:35:48] So they’ve been really good with not safe for work AI. Mm ... which is- I,[00:35:52] Simone Collins: I wonder, too, if that’s probably because they’re largely banning it within their own borders and then selling it abroad. So I think, for example- Like, they banned chat bots ... [00:36:00] yeah, well, they, they, yeah, they banned AI companions of any sort in China as of July 15th.[00:36:06] However, I imagine that they might have some form of, of porn ban as well, and a problem that any American-based company’s gonna have with investors is they’re gonna be like, “I don’t want you developing this. This is, this is horrible.” Whereas in China, they’d be like, “Oh, you’re gonna produce tittytainment for our, like, antagonists abroad, and this won’t affect our people at all?[00:36:26] Okay, you are doing God’s work. Go ahead.” You know?[00:36:30] Malcolm Collins: Well, let’s see. Is not safe for work AI banned in China?[00:36:32] Yes, it is banned[00:36:34] Simone Collins: See? Look at that. That’s even- Look at that ... it’s right[00:36:36] Malcolm Collins: there CDance, they make it for America not safe for work, and then in China-[00:36:39] Simone Collins: Tittytainment.[00:36:41] That’s what it is. It’s tittytainment. Your titties gotta be tamed.[00:36:44] Malcolm Collins: rfab.ai people, we got these models cheaper than anyone else.[00:36:48] Simone Collins: Yeah. China’s best, so good they don’t even allow it in China ...[00:36:51] Malcolm Collins: the, the, the mini version of CDance produces almost as good as anyone else, and I haven’t[00:36:55] Simone Collins: found- In fact, even just porn is illegal, Malcolm, in China Ooh Just can’t.[00:37:00] Yeah. Production, distribution, sale, dissemination, dissemination, and other, under recent rules, private sharing of pornographic or obscene materials are illegal. So they’re like-[00:37:15] Malcolm Collins: Well, they’re not gonna be resistant to this stuff, and that’s one of the things that ends up hurting them I know. I know If you just ban everything, then you don’t build up a resistance to it as a culture- Yeah.[00:37:24] Yeah ... even biologically, and you get- Yeah ... cooked over time, which is, you know, you know where else- Yeah ... you know where else porn was banned?[00:37:35] Japan South[00:37:35] Simone Collins: Korea? Oh, Japan, yeah.[00:37:37] Malcolm Collins: Almost nowhere in the world-[00:37:38] Simone Collins: Not South Korea,[00:37:38] Malcolm Collins: Japan ... is better at pornography or more prolific in pornography than Japan. I know, right?[00:37:44] Simone Collins: Yeah,[00:37:44] Malcolm Collins: that’s true. You ban it, you get a population that gets over-sensitized and cooked.[00:37:50] Simone Collins: Or, you know, true, true creation. Like, actually maybe there’s a thing, you know?[00:37:54] It’s like the best, the best corn, corn coming out of Japan could lead to... You know, because it was banned. Maybe this, this is why we have such good NSFW video generation.[00:38:06] Malcolm Collins: Actually, America, like, disproportionately doesn’t produce that much porn. Like, i- in terms of its share of, like, the total not safe for work global ecosystem.[00:38:15] Speaker 6: To be absolutely clear, the vast majority of porn in the world was produced in the San Fernando Valley in California, , between 1970 and 2000. This is a very modern phenomenon that the US is not the dominant player[00:38:26] Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Russia’s an outsized player. China’s- Yeah ... an outsized player. Sorry, not China. Yeah. Japan is an outsized player. Korea’s an outsized player.[00:38:33] Simone Collins: Good point.[00:38:33] Malcolm Collins: And Korea, again- Okay. Where porn is banned-[00:38:35] Simone Collins: Is it sort of, like, just broadly- ... is an outsized player ... the United States Christian culture being super not cool with it?[00:38:41] Just a cultural issue?[00:38:45] Malcolm Collins: I I think it’s actually-[00:38:45] Simone Collins: Maybe, maybe also, like, outlawed sex work could be an issue, too.[00:38:50] Malcolm Collins: I think it’s outside... It’s downstream of two things. Mm. One, for real humans, it’s downstream of the arbitrage earning potential of the industry. Because you know, if you’re making that kind of material it’s for global distribution generally speaking.[00:39:04] And so what matters is how much will people pay for it versus how much does it cost to make it, which means it’s gonna be disproportionately valuable to spend your time on that if you are, I mean, obviously gated by ethnicity, but let’s say, like, a, you know, you’re making it for the US market, you’re doing that in Russia or the Ukraine or in Eastern Europe is gonna be a better place economically to do that.[00:39:24] And then for drawn stuff Japan and Korea just have more of a history of drawing not safe for work stuff in, in the styles people prefer. And then outside of them, because of Latin America, see our episode on why are Latin Americans such weebs ‘cause they are just a bunch of weeby nerds. Way more anime is consumed in Latin America than, like, anywhere else actually anywhere else in the world.[00:39:46] But see our episode if you wanna get the exact number breakdown on that. But they got very used to the Japanese animation styles, and so they began to produce a lot as well. But yeah[00:39:55] I think it’s a lack of good artists for that sort of stuff is, is really the, the, the [00:40:00] answer. Just not as many people trained on the styles that people prefer and then, ah, cost to time benefit for real humans[00:40:10] Simone Collins: Well, and I think the, quote-unquote, training is downstream of culture as well It[00:40:15] Malcolm Collins: didn’t used to be this way.[00:40:16] The US used to dominate, I think, when, when the, the industry was, like, VHSes and stuff like that.[00:40:22] Simone Collins: Did we? Mm.[00:40:24] Malcolm Collins: I think so.[00:40:25] Simone Collins: I’ll check in a post. Oh, yeah, yeah, g- yeah, I could see that. I could see that. Never mind. Okay, cool. Well, anyway, we just can’t keep our minds off one little thing. That’s okay, though.[00:40:35] Malcolm Collins: Yeah.[00:40:36] Well, I mean, th- this is, this is one of those things. When I talk about the, the debilitation thing, I mean, I think we see this even within American culture. The communities that completely ban it are the communities where people seem to get the most cucked by it, you know? When, like, a Mormon- Yeah. Oh, yeah[00:40:49] is like, “My life was completely destroyed by this,” I’m like-[00:40:52] Simone Collins: Well, yeah, I mean, like, think about what are, what are the[00:40:54] Malcolm Collins: most- ... that shouldn’t have destroyed your life ...[00:40:55] Simone Collins: the most rapey cultures are not the cultures that have the most she-asked-for-it dressed women. The, the cultures where we have women dressing most like she asked for it.[00:41:07] What are you talking[00:41:07] Malcolm Collins: about? What are you talking?[00:41:09] Simone Collins: Grape.[00:41:10] Malcolm Collins: That that happens the most in cultures where people cover up the most? Yes. Oh, true. Yeah, Islam.[00:41:14] Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah, yeah.[00:41:15] So, like, this whole thing of, like, “Oh, we’re just gonna protect people from it by making it impossible to access or see,” well, that,[00:41:21] Malcolm Collins: it[00:41:21] Simone Collins: doesn’t have a good[00:41:22] Malcolm Collins: track[00:41:22] Simone Collins: record.[00:41:22] Malcolm Collins: And then you have huge rates of, of, of rape. Mm-hmm. And in, and in Mormon culture, you know, you say, “Oh, no porn,” and then you get d- like, debilitating porn addictions where, like, they can’t hold down a job because the, they, they... like, porn exists.[00:41:33] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:41:33] Malcolm Collins: Which, fascinating. Yeah, yeah. It, it causes, like, hugely negative externalities too.[00:41:36] Well,[00:41:37] Simone Collins: and this is why, again, don’t shelter, annotate. Annotate, annotate, annotate. It’s all about annotation. Yeah. Sheltering does not work. Not in our world. Not in our world.[00:41:46] Malcolm Collins: Well, n- not in the world of the internet as it exists right now, you know? Yeah.[00:41:49] Simone Collins: Mm-hmm.[00:41:50] Malcolm Collins: Anyway. Anyway. Very interesting global phenomenon we’re seeing here.[00:41:53] Very interesting asides as well. Mm. China’s just making every wrong decision it can. Yeah. So hooray for us. What this does mean, potentially, is, okay, now that they’re drawing down their strategic reserves they might be less likely to attack Taiwan, or that they were able to make it through a blockade without huge negative effects, and now they see other good things they can do during an attack, like further reduce the refining capacity, if this isn’t a full reduction, to match the real economic demand create another reason to attack Taiwan.[00:42:24] So, I don’t know if this pushes it away or it moves it closer but it does change variables.[00:42:31] Simone Collins: Hmm. Agreed. That’s fascinating.[00:42:35] Malcolm Collins: All right. Love you.[00:42:36] Simone Collins: I love you too.[00:42:37] Malcolm Collins: What are we doing for dinner tonight?[00:42:39] Simone Collins: Well, I still have all that mozzarella that we should probably go through. Yeah, let’s do something[00:42:42] Malcolm Collins: with that.[00:42:43] Simone Collins: But I want... Yeah, I think you wanted to make quesadillas, so I can also just do that. ‘Cause I don’t know what I’ll do with the mozzarella. I don’t think I ha- I have any Buldak left.[00:42:52] So why don’t I just make you a quesadilla? Unless you want- Well,[00:42:55] Malcolm Collins: here’s what we can do tomorrow, okay?[00:42:57] Simone Collins: Okay.[00:42:58] Malcolm Collins: I would look up fun recipes with what we do have that involves mozzarella.[00:43:02] Simone Collins: Okay. Will[00:43:03] Malcolm Collins: do. Maybe even invent a recipe, ‘cause I like mo- mozzarella on just about anything.[00:43:06] Simone Collins: That’s true.[00:43:07] Malcolm Collins: Ooh, mozzarella on french fries[00:43:14] Simone Collins: Hmm.[00:43:16] Malcolm Collins: You know what tastes really good? Moz- melted mozzarella on top of french fries with that chicken dish that’s, like, crumbly that we make.[00:43:27] Simone Collins: Oh, Burmese mint chicken?[00:43:29] Malcolm Collins: Yeah.[00:43:31] Simone Collins: Oh, as like a topping on top of it, like at the very end.[00:43:34] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, like a topping on top of, like melted mozzarella,[00:43:39] Simone Collins: Sweet potato or Korean?[00:43:42] Malcolm Collins: I do Korean for the bigger crunch.[00:43:46] Simone Collins: Okay. Will do.[00:43:47] Malcolm Collins: I, I, I mean, tonight we... I’m not as hungry, so actually- Oh ... I love quesadillas.[00:43:52] Simone Collins: Yeah, okay. We’ll just do a quesadilla tonight, and tomorrow we’ll try out the whole...[00:43:56] ‘Cause yeah, that’ll, that’s a meal, meal. You’re, we’re gonna need to get you tired [00:44:00] out. Yeah.[00:44:02] Malcolm Collins: All right, love you.[00:44:03] Simone Collins: I love you too. What are you looking for?[00:44:05] My cup The- That was just drinking out of[00:44:07] Bathroom?[00:44:08] Malcolm Collins: You know me so well.[00:44:09] Simone Collins: that what wives are famous for, knowing, like, where things have been left?[00:44:13] Malcolm Collins: Where the husband loses stuff?[00:44:15] Simone Collins: But I think it has to do with different mental processing of thi- like, the, the things that the brain is more attuned to. Like, I remember listening to this thing about differences between men and women in terms of performance, and that women are way more attuned to repetitive background noises, for example.[00:44:34] Hmm. Whereas men tune it out. It’s like a kid who’s like, “Mommy, Mommy, Mommy, Mommy.” That will register with the mother, but not with-[00:44:44] Malcolm Collins: And the dad’ll just be like, “Yeah, whatever.”[00:44:45] Simone Collins: There’s a reason why I’ve never heard, like, in a cartoon, a kid being like, “Daddy, Daddy, Daddy.” ‘[00:44:52] Malcolm Collins: Cause they just get smacked.[00:44:57] Simone Collins: Yes. This is true. This is true, and ignored. The requests are not[00:45:04] Malcolm Collins: effective.[00:45:07] I’ll get started here.[00:45:09] Simone Collins: Mm-mm[00:45:18] Speaker 8: What is in here, Titan? It’s a fish. It’s a fish? Yeah. Yeah. A crawfish or a rock. Okay. It’s ... I think it’s a fish. I don’t think that’s a crawfish. That looks like a tiny little fish. No, it’s a big fish. It’s a big fish. Have you been eating dirt? What’s going on with your face?[00:45:39] Speaker 9: A little tiny A little tiny? Yeah. What do you think? A little big and a little tiny. For sure. Yeah. Okay. Well, are you gonna tell me what the fish’s name is?[00:45:54] Speaker 8: Okay. Very good. That seems appropriate You’re gonna take him for a walk and then return him to his homeland?[00:46:06] Yeah, exactly. I’m gonna take him for a walk and bring him back. Okay. From you. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Let’s- Okay, you’re just tickling him? You weren’t gonna... Okay. Now I wish him to go back home. You caught another one, Jackson? Yeah. Yeah. And her name is Girly, ‘cause she caught her like a girl, apparently. Really?[00:46:23] Yes. Is it living or is it dead?[00:46:28] I think it’s a- No, it’s right there. Oh, we’re re-catching it. That one bites it. Forthen, remember, that’s the sharing bucket. Ah, the sharing bucket. You have to share that bucket. You have to share that bucket. And look, now you have a fish in there, Toasty, so it’s good. Yeah. That’s the last one I did. The last one you did?[00:46:43] What, are you retiring from your fishing career? She’s retiring from her fishing career. Okay. Bye.[00:46:57] Where is Daddy? He made us stay here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit basedcamppodcast.substack.com/subscribe