In this off-week bonus episode of Money for the Rest of Us, we look at the possibility that current U.S. stock valuations are justified and the market is not overvalued.Topics covered include:Two ways to measure P/E ratios and which is more accurateHow record profit margins are affecting P/E ratiosHow concentration risk is at an all-time high for U.S. stocksHow the stock market's direction will depend on whether profit margins expand, contract, or stay the same.Where to invest to reduce an overconcentration in U.S. stocks. Episode SlidesEpisode TranscriptSlides, transcript, and show notes also at: https://moneyfortherestofus.com/. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We analyze long-term stock returns when investing at market peaks and bottoms, and when stocks are cheap or expensive.We also share what we think stocks will return over the next decade and why.Finally, we simulate the investment outcomes for someone who invests $50 per week.Episode SlidesEpisode TranscriptSponsorsGet the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday WorkDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us Plus See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I provide a short update on Money for the Rest of Us and introduce our listener survey. All survey participants will get access to an exclusive podcast episode on my worst investing mistakes and what I learned.Take the Money for the Rest of Us Listener Survey See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are.We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return.Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return.SponsorsMoney for the Rest of Us Retirement Investing CohortDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode slide deckVariance Risk Premia by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu—NYUCross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility by Jie Cao and Bing Han—The Journal of Financial EconomicsThe Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options by Joost Driessen, Pascal J. Maenhout, Grigory Vilkov—SSRNCross-section of option returns and volatility by Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto—The Journal of Financial EconomicsThe Art of Put Selling: A 10 Year Study by John Marshall, Krag Gregory, Katherine Fogertey—Goldman SachsLow Stress BetsRelated Episodes557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap549: Why Catastrophe Bonds Are Yielding 12%, and Should You Invest?544: Sports Betting Is Not InvestingArticle: Tail Events and Tail Risk See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue.Topics covered include:Why the OpenAI agentic AI breach is so disturbingHow do we prepare for cyberattacksWhy gold should be one of the assets we hold apart from the financial systemHow the historical relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken downTo what extent are central banks selling dollars to buy goldHow gold ETF flows influence the gold priceSponsorsGet the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday WorkDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode 564 Slide Deck with ChartsGold's Run Isn't Yet Done - Bhanu Baweja - Financial TimesBrief independent investigation of agents’ behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incidentAre Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets? - Linda S. Goldberg, Oliver Hannaoui, and Sneha Parthasarathy - Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkRelated Episodes541: Debasement Fears or Meme Fever? What’s Driving the Gold and Silver Rally563: Why Interest Rates Keep Rising and What to Do About It See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The national debt exceeds $40 trillion, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are at 19-year highs, the U.S. Treasury Department is intervening in currency and bond markets. We unpack it all in this episode and show you how to position your investment portfolio to lock in higher yields and protect yourself from falling bond prices.SponsorsTry NetSuite for FreeDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesEpisode 563 Slide DeckDebt to the Penny - U.S. TreasuryHistorical debt and budget tables - U.S. White HouseAverage U.S. national debt interest rate - U.S. TreasuryTreasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 - U.S TreasuryAmerica’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t - Hanno LustigRelated Episodes525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors463: How to Lock in Higher Yields464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What are the steps to simplify your portfolio, given that it is likely spread across multiple accounts? We focus particularly on retirees, who have to weigh additional considerations like withdrawals, Roth conversions, and required minimum distributions.We also explore which areas of the stock and bond markets are attractive right now as you seek to simplify and/or rebalance your portfolio.SponsorsTry NetSuite for FreeDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offShow Notes and Related ContentA Complete Guide to Investing in I Bonds and TIPS (2026)550: Asset Location: Where You Invest, Where You Live, What You Can AccessFree Investment Strategy ReportInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us Plus See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We explore the expected size of AI-related debt, which vehicles hold it, what could go wrong, and how to protect yourself.Topics covered include:How AI capex boom compares to other large booms and bustsWhat fixed income vehicles hold AI-linked debtWhat mechanisms are being used to transfer AI-debt risk.How circular finance is contributing to the AI infrastructure buildoutWhat could go wrong with the AI infrastructure buildout that could lead to losses on AI-related debtHow to tell what exposure you have to AI debtSponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offNetSuite Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesAI debt slide deck used for episodeRBC Weighs $2 Billion Risk Transfer to Hedge Data Center-Linked Loans by Esteban Duarte and Paula Sambo—BloombergHyperscalers Tap External Financing as AI Capex Outruns Cash Flow—FactSet InsightWhat History Tells Us About The AI Investment Boom by Larry Swedroe—Financial AdvisorGoldman Sachs Warns on AI’s Debt Tsunami — Is This the End of the AI Boom? by Rich Duprey—Yahoo! FinanceProgress and peril by Pablo Hernández de Cos—BISThe Opportunities and Risks AI Presents for the Economy and Financial System by Governor Lisa D. Cook—The Federal ReserveFinancial Stability Report by The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System—The Federal ReserveFinancing the AI infrastructure boom: on- and off-balance sheet borrowing by Egemen Eren, Ingomar Krohn and Karamfil Todorov—BISHow AI debt financing impacts duration supply and interest rates by Hugo De Vere, Srini Ramaswamy and Seth Searls—Federal Reserve Bank of DallasUS Life Insurers Held $807 Billion of Hard-to-Sell Credit by Alexandre Rajbhandari—BloombergInsurers are funding AI infrastructure – NAIC wants to know if the ratings hold up by Paul Lucas—Insurance BusinessUS Corporate Bonds Statistics—sifma See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How inflation numbers are manipulated to appear lower. How to change your mindset about inflation to get ahead of it.Topics covered include:How Inflation (PCE) Calculations Are ChangingWhy the CPE Changes Are SuspiciousThe Biggest Changes Ever to Inflation CalculationsWhat Causes InflationAI Buildout Is Boosting InflationHow Rising Income Can Overcome InflationInflation Is Currency DebasementMost Things Get Cheaper and Better Over TimePersonal Inflation Rate and RetirementWe Can Beat Inflation by Improving Our SkillsInflation Manipulation vs Inflation FabricationHow to Outsmart InflationSponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offNetSuite Retirement Investing Webinar and Portfolio CohortInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesPreview of the 2026 Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts—BEAThe Inflation Outlook by Governor Stephen I. Miran—U.S. Federal ReserveToward A More Accurate Measure Of The Cost Of Living by The Advisory Commission To Study The Consumer Price Index —SSAA Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation by David Stein—Money for the Rest of UsLive Retirement Portfolio Cohort—Money for the Rest of UsRelated Episodes475: Inflation’s Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasement429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David shares nine lessons a listener followed to become a millionaire.Topics covered include:The benefit of underspending on housingWhat rate of return and how much would you need to save to grow a portfolio to one million dollarsWhy historical studies of the S&P 500 returns are misleadingDavid's recent portfolio mistakeSponsorsDelete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offNetSuite Retirement Investing Webinar and Portfolio CohortInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusRelated Episodes498: What I Learned Investing in the Past Decade454: How To Invest – Ten Rules of Thumb for Individual Investors See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.