Money For the Rest of Us
Money For the Rest of Us
J. David Stein
A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com
The Pandemic Might Be "Over," but Not the Repercussions
How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives. Topics covered include:Is the pandemic really over?What percentage of people continue to isolate at homeHow behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.How work has changed with the pandemicHas pandemic stimulus changed beliefs about the sustainability of the national debt leading to structural inflationHow productivity improvements could improve the national debt burdenWhat investment lessons has David learned from the pandemic For more information on this episode click here. Sponsors LinkedIn – Post your job for free Express VPN – get three months free on VPN service Show Notes Biden’s claim that ‘pandemic is over’ complicates efforts to secure funding by Dan Diamond—The Washington Post COVID-19 Dashboard—The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University Axios/Ipsos COVID-19 Poll – Wave 70, September 9–12, 2022 Study: 163 Million People Dine Out at Least Once a Week—QSR Magazine U.S. Return-to-Office Rates Hit Pandemic High as More Employers Get Tougher By Peter Grant—The Wall Street Journal Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy; Panel Topic: An End to Pre-Pandemic Trends or Just a Temporary Interruption? by Valerie A. Ramey Inflation as a Fiscal Limit by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi Related Episodes 333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System 400: What If High Inflation Doesn’t End? Investments Mentioned Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Sep 21
28 min
Why Student Debt Is So High and  Why Forgiving It Doesn't Fix the Problem
What are the drivers that lead to higher student loan balances? Why a one-time student loan forgiveness program doesn't solve the problem of increasing student debt. What are some more viable longer-term solutions. Topics covered include:How big is the Biden Administration student debt forgiveness planHow big has the student debt burden grownWhy are borrowings for students increasingWhy Baby Boomers spent so much less on collegeHow are student loans accounted for by the U.S. federal governmentWhat is the impact on the deficit and potentially inflation of forgiving billions of dollars of student debt For more information on this episode click here. Show Notes Student Debt And The Federal Budget | How Student Loans Impact The U.S. Fiscal Outlook, November 2021—Bipartisan Policy Center What the Student-Loan Debate Overlooks by Ronald Brownstein—The Atlantic See the Average College Tuition in 2022-2023 by Emma Kerr and Sarah Wood—U.S. News & World Report Biden’s Student-Debt Plan Could Chip Away at the Racial Wealth Gap by Sheelah Kolhatkar—The New Yorker If your federal student loan payments are high compared to your income, you may want to repay your loans under an income-driven repayment plan—Federal Student Aid What Does Student Debt Cancellation Mean for Federal Finances?—Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Government payments by program—Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture Projected Lifetime Earnings by Major by Douglas A. Webber, December 1st, 2019 Related Episodes 245: Is College Worth It? 307: Income Share Agreements—Good for Students or Investors? 327: Is Student Loan Forgiveness A Good Idea? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Sep 14
25 min
Why Diversifying Your Portfolio Feels So Awful
Warren Buffet said, "Diversification makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing." He also said, "Diversification is a protection against ignorance..." Most of us need that protection against ignorance, yet diversification often makes us feel bad when some of our holdings don't do as well as others. We make the case why we should diversify anyway. Topics covered:Warren Buffet says it's crazy to own more than 30 stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway owns 48 stocksWhat does it mean to analyze a businessHow have U.S. stocks performed relative to non-U.S. stocks long-termWhat has driven the outperformance of U.S. stocks and what has to happen for it to continueWhat are examples of diversification plays just in case the U.S. falters For more information on this episode click here. Show Notes Warren Buffett and Diversification—GrahamValue.com The Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio by John Divine U.S. News The Business Cycle Is Different Than The Economic Cycle - Crestmont Research EU Natural Gas—Trading Economics Related Episodes 254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks? 275: Are You Over Diversified? 364: Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure Against Currency Fluctuations? Sponsor Masterworks – invest in contemporary art See important Regulation A disclosures at masterworks.io/cd    Since inception, Masterworks has sold six paintings from the collection. IRR is net of all fees and expenses and is presented on a deal-weighted basis, which assumes the same investment amount was made in each applicable offering. In certain cases, Masterworks may concede its fees and/or profit sharing in connection with the sale of a painting for the benefit of the shareholders. Net IRR was calculated assuming all fees and profit sharing to which Masterworks was entitled were charged to the issuer. IRR on sold artwork is not indicative of Masterworks’ overall performance or future results. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Sep 7
26 min
What If High Inflation Doesn't End? How To Invest If High Inflation Stays
How economic wars, pandemics, and worker shortages could lead to years of high structural inflation. What needs to happen to avoid this dire inflation scenario. Topics covered include:What are the three inflation lessons Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sharedWhat is inflation anchoringWhat caused the current period of high inflationHow China and Russia contributed to low inflation and why those trends have reversedHow behavior changes and productivity improvements can contribute to lower inflationHow to invest for an extended period of high inflation For more information on this episode click here. Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring the episode. Show Notes Monetary Policy and Price Stability, August 26, 2022, byChair Jerome H. Powell—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Fed's Kashkari: 'happy' with market reaction to Powell speech by Ann Saphir and Matthew Lewis—Reuters War and Interest Rates by Zoltan Pozsar—Credit Suisse 2nd Quarter Market Commentary, July 2022—Horizon Kinetics BP Energy Outlook 2022 Investments Mentioned Invesco DB Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC) Horizons Kinetics Inflation Beneficiary ETF (INFL) Related Episodes 342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming? 384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It? 395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Aug 31
25 min
Unintended Consequences Impact Everything
We explore examples of positive and negative unintended consequences, what causes them, and how to navigate a world where unanticipated things happen all of the time. Topics covered include:What leads to unintended consequencesWhat are some unintended consequences of QE and stimulus, price controls, tax incentives, gun legislation, and marijuana legalizationHow positive unintended consequences and order can arise from the bottom upHow recent climate legislation could lead to unintended consequencesWhy customers don't always know what they want For more information on this episode click here. Episode Sponsors LinkedIn – Post your job for free Show Notes Large rent increases squeeze metro Phoenix tenants by Associated Press—The Journal Record Unintended Consequences by Karras Lambert and Christopher J. Coyne The Seen, the Unseen, and the Unrealized: How Regulations Affect Our Everyday Lives by Per L. Bylund Norway reconsiders electric car privileges by Chris Randall—electrive.com More Guns, More Unintended Consequences: The Effects of Right-to-Carry on Criminal Behavior and Policing in Us Cities by John J. Donohue, Samuel Cai, Matthew Bondy, and Philip J. Cook Marijuana Legalization and Fertility by Sarah Papich Japan’s latest alcohol advice: please drink more by Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki—Financial Times The Poverty of Historicism by Karl Popper How the New Climate Bill Would Reduce Emissions by Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer—The New York Times Democrats Designed the Climate Law to Be a Game Changer. Here’s How. by Lisa Friedman—The New York Times Economists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends; The Largest Public Statement of Economists in History—Climate Leadership Council Why We Don't Have a Carbon Tax by Paul Krugman—The New York Times Lean Startup and the Business Model: Experimentation Revisited by Teppo Felin, Alfonso Gambardella, Scott Stern, and Todd Zenger Related Episodes 158: How To Invest Like A Cockroach 236: How Investors Cope With Radical Uncertainty See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Aug 24
24 min
When Should You Hire An Investment Advisor? Two Case Studies
We analyze two listeners' portfolios. One who is close to retirement and considering hiring an outside money manager. The second is 45 and just sold a business and is trying to decide whether to fire Schwab's robo-advisor service and manage his portfolio on his own. Topics covered include:What elements are part of a financial planWhat to consider when researching an investment advisorWhat is a core-satellite investment approachWhy Schwab was fined $180 million for misleading its clients about the cash balance in its Intelligent Portfolios serviceHow to decide if an investment advisor is a good fitWhy no portfolio can be on autopilot, but they can be as simple as two ETFs For more information on this episode click here. Sponsors Express VPN - get three months free on VPN service Masterworks - Invest in contemporary art Show Notes Schwab Subsidiaries Misled Robo-Adviser Clients about Absence of Hidden Fees—SEC Cease-And-Desist Order Against Charles Schwab & Co, June 13, 2022—SEC Related Episodes 92: What Robo-Advisors Recommend 248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud 303: How To Do Financial Planning See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Aug 17
29 min
How To Invest Based on Cycles
This episode edits and remasters two earlier episodes on investing based on cycles to focus on timeless investing principles. Topics covered include:What are different types of cyclesWhy do cycles have subjective start and end dates.Why do coincidences happen so often.How to position investment portfolios based on cycles.How luck and skill play a role in investing.Why it is better to invest based on calibrating risk rather than prediction. For more information on this episode click here. Show Notes Weiss Research Weiss Research SEC Action Foundation For The Study of Cycles Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence by Joseph Mazur A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics – Andrey V. Korotayev and Sergey V. Tsirel Howard Marks – Yet Gain? Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard Marks Related Episodes 173: Should You Invest Based On Cycles 224: Mastering the Market Cycle – Howard Marks See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Aug 10
37 min
Forsage and Herbalife—How Multi-Level Marketing, Pyramid Schemes, and Ponzi Schemes Differ
Why it is challenging to distinguish a legitimate multi-level marketing company from a pyramid scheme as hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman found out in his losing campaign against Herbalife. How Forsage has taken pyramid and Ponzi schemes to a whole new level, and why the regulators can't shut it down. Topics covered include:What are multi-level marketing companies and how most MLM distributors are unsuccessfulWhat is the difference between a pyramid scheme and a Ponzi scheme and what are some examplesHow hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management took on Herbalife and despite FTC and SEC actions, Herbalife continues to thrive.Why Forsage, a pyramid and Ponzi scheme on the blockchain, continues, despite SEC regulatory actionsWhy Bitcoin isn't a Ponzi scheme For more information on this episode click here. Sponsors Policygenius Money For the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Herbalife Settlement With F.T.C. Ends Billionaires’ Battle by Matthew Goldstein and Alexandra Stevenson—The New York Times Multi-Level Marketing Businesses and Pyramid Schemes—Federal Trade Commission Herbalife International Settlement Complaint Herbalife Settles With S.E.C., but Too Late for Hedge Fund Investor by Matthew Goldstein—The New York Times Consistency is Key! Make Money Podcasting by Elsie Escobar—Libsyn November Stats From Rob Walch—Podcast Business Journal Federal Trade Commission Returns More Than $149 Million To Consumers Harmed by AdvoCare Pyramid Scheme—Federal Trade Commission Federal Trade Commission Returns More Than $23 Million To Consumers Deceived by Online Business Coaching Scheme MOBE—Federal Trade Commission FTC Shuts Down Credit Repair Pyramid Scheme Financial Education Services, Which Bilked More Than $213 Million from Consumers—Federal Trade Commission Investor Alert: Ponzi Schemes Using Virtual Currencies—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission What is Forsage?—Forsage Support Related Episodes 248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud 253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Aug 3
23 min
How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being
How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more. Topics covered include:How longevity and birthrates impact population growthWhat areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declinesWhy high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levelsWhen is global population expected to peak and at what levelWill greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflationWhat is the difference between growth and developmentHow slowing population growth will impact investmentsWhy the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growth For more information on this episode click here. Sponsors LinkedIn Jobs - post your job for free Money For the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results—United Nations Department of Economy and Social Affairs Five Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al. Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen Visa High Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate Oglesby Another Beautiful Italian Town Is Selling €1 Homes—This Time, No Deposit Required by Cailey Rizzo Will Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli Rehn The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Wanting Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation by Mikael Juselius and Elöd Takáts Unions Are Now a Lifestyle Choice for Some Young, Aspirational Workers, Says Walter Olson—The Economist Economics for a Full World by Herman Daly This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End by David Marchese The Environmental Kuznets Curve by David I. Stern Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered by Ernst F. Schumacher See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Jul 27
27 min
How To Get Better At Risk Taking
Five ways we can better take and manage risk. Topics covered include:How likely is it that China will invade Taiwan and the stock market will fall 80%Why experts tend to be humble and don't make specific predictionsWhat is the difference between risk and uncertainty, and between loss capacity and loss aversionWhat factors impact our degree of loss aversion and loss toleranceWhy the economy needs more risk takers rather than rentiers For more information on this episode click here. Sponsors Masterworks - invest in modern art Real Vision Show Notes Investor Risk Profiling: An Overview by Joachim Klement, CFA—CFA Institute Research Foundation Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample by Jonathan Chapman, et al. The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Risk Preferences by Wesley Howden and Remy Levin Does Mood Take the Front Seat in Determining the Financial Risk-Taking Propensity of Individuals? Evidence from India by Crystal Glenda Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna B. V Venture Capital AUM at Record High of $2tn—Preqin 10 Key Facts About the Capital Markets by Katie Kolchin, CFA—SIFMA Related Episodes What Is Risk vs Uncertainty? 268: How To Better Manage Risk 350: How to Invest in Startups on Equity Crowdfunding Platforms? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Jul 20
27 min
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