
Why equity real estate investment trusts should be part of your investment portfolio despite the office sector's struggles.
Topics covered include:Why some office REITs are down 30% in 2023, and owners are walking away from buildingsHow commercial mortgages differ from residential mortgagesThe broad sector diversification found within equity REIT ETFsWhat have equity REITs performed long-term and what drove those returnsWhat is a reasonable return expectation for equity REITsWhy equity REIT prices adjust more quickly than private real estate valuesWhy you should be wary of private REITs
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Show Notes
Slow Return to Work Pummels Office Stocks by Peter Grant—The Wall Street Journal
REITs Likely to Attract Growing Interest from Private Real Estate Funds by Sarah Borchersen-Keto—Nareit
Related Content
414: Use Caution with Private REITs like Blackstone’s BREIT
A Complete Guide to Equity REIT Investing
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May 24
22 min

What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act?
Topics covered include:What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economyWhat causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisisWhy it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its obligationsWhat the Biden Administration could do to prevent a defaultWhat the Federal Reserve could do to prevent a defaultGiven the ongoing crisis, should you shift assets from stocks to cash?
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Show Notes
The Debt Limit Since 2011—Congressional Research Service
7 doomsday scenarios if the U.S. crashes through the debt ceiling by Jeff Stein—The Washington Post
A debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze by Jeff Tucker—Zillow
Why is federal spending so hard to cut? — Recurring debt ceiling fights will only be solved by budget reform by Linda Bilmes—Brookings
Debt Limit Default Is Default, Even Under a “Prioritization” Scheme by Richard Kogan—Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Why I Changed My Mind on the Debt Limit by Laurence H. Tribe—The New York Times
The Trillion-Dollar Coin Might Be the Least Bad Option by Annie Lowrey—The Atlantic
If U.S. again risks default, Fed has 'loathsome' playbook by Ann Saphir—Reuters
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169: The Debt Ceiling—What Happens If the U.S. Defaults
416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know
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May 17
26 min

Does there need to be a loser for every winner when it comes to investing and economic growth?
Topics covered include:What are zero-sum gamesHow trading can be a zero-sum gameWhy active management and seeking excess returns through security selections or country weights are zero-sum gamesWhy the U.S. stock market has outperformed the rest of the worldWhy economic growth overall is not a zero-sum game, but some aspects of the economy are zero-sum games
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Show Notes
With the Odds on Their Side, They Still Couldn’t Beat the Market by Jeff Sommer—The New York Times
International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years by Cliff Asness, Antti Ilmanen, and Daniel Villalon—AQR
The (Time-Varying) Importance of Disaster Risk by Ivo Welch—The Financial Analysts' Journal
The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review by Dasgupta P.—GOV.UK
Why the economy is not a zero-sum game: a simple explanation by Nathan Mech—Acton Institute
Defending the Free Market: The Moral Case for a Free Economy by Robert Sirico
Rents: How Marketing Causes Inequality by Gerrit De Geest
The Threat of Rent Extraction in a Resource-constrained Future by Stratford B.—White Rose Research Online
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421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing
426: Which is Best – Active or Passive, ETFs or Funds?
430: How Should Personal and National Wealth Be Measured?
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May 10
28 min

Why you should allocate a small percentage of your assets to gold.
Topics covered include:What is money, and how does gold fit with that definitionWhy central banks bought more gold last year than at any time since 1967Which central banks own the most gold and which are increasing their gold holdingsHow fast is the gold supply growing compared to the U.S. dollar money supplyHow financialization, greater leverage, and contagion risk should motivate us to consider gold
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Show Notes
Central banks load up on gold in response to rising geopolitical tensions by Daria Mosolova—The Financial Times
Above-ground stocks—Gold Hub
Central bank holdings—Gold Hub
Does the Federal Reserve own or hold gold?—The Federal Reserve
Trey Reik—LinkedIn
M2 and Components—FRED
Gold Charts R Us
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53: Should You Invest In Bitcoin?
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263: Should You Invest In Gold?
344: Why Should You Care About Shadow Banking?
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May 3
27 min

How we measure wealth, riches, abundance, and well-being is more important today than ever.
Topics covered include:How late 18th century philosophers Adam Smith and the Earl of Lauderdale defined wealth and the role of capital. Why they worried about income inequality and excess profitsWhat led to the dramatic increase in life expectancy and wealth in the 20th and 21st centuriesHow a long life expectancy and well-being can be attained at much lower levels of wealthWhy John Maynard Keynes was right about the expansion of the economy but wrong about how many hours we would workHow the U.S. expanded its wealth relative to the rest of world, and at what costWhy natural capital should be included in measuring wealth
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Show Notes
An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith—Early Modern Texts
About Adam Smith—Adam Smith Institute
An Inquiry Into the Nature and Origin of Public Wealth and Into the Means and Causes of Its Increase by The Earl of Lauderdale—McMaster University
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio—Simon & Schuster
The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review—GOV.UK
Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World by Jason Hickel—Penguin Random House
Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren by John Maynard Keynes—Yale
America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold—The Economist
How Much is Enough? Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky—Penguin Random House
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142: Why Are Some Nations Wealthier Than Others?
282: Is GDP the Best Measure of Happiness and Well-Being?
300: Ray Dalio and the Changing World Order
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Apr 26
28 min

With a total U.S. inflation rate of 14% in the past two years, we review how various inflation hedges performed over the past twenty-four months.
Topics covered include:What were investors' and the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations two years agoWhat led to the big inflation increaseWhy was the Federal Reserve forced to raise its policy rate by almost 5% in a yearHow successful were inflation-index bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate in beating inflation over the past two yearsHow did two active ETFs that set out to protect against inflation performWhat is the current outlook for inflation, and what should investors do
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Show Notes
CPI Inflation Calculator—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation Beneficiaries ETF—Horizon Kinetics
Quadratic Capital Management
Investments Mentioned
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
Vanguard Short-term Inflation Protection Securities ETF (VTIP)
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)
Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
WisdomTree U.S. High Dividend Fund (DHS)
WisdomTree Global High Dividend Fund (DEW)
Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL)
Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH)
Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL)
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342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?
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Apr 19
26 min

How accelerating bank deposit withdrawals could harm the economy, including real estate prices. How dollars slosh around the financial system but always seem to end up at the Federal Reserve.
Topics covered include:How many deposits have left banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapseHow much have banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve to meet deposit withdrawalsWhy exiting deposits are harming bank profits and causing them to make fewer loansHow the credit crunch could hurt commercial real estate valuesHow money market mutual funds differ from banksHow today's banking crisis is similar to the 1980s savings and loans crisisWhat should investors do to protect their wealth
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Show Notes
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks—The Federal Reserve
Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States—The Federal Reserve
All U.S. Banks Net Interest Margin—BankRegData
Current Treasuries and Swap Rates—Chatham Financial
Options trading surges as investors brace themselves for US regional bank volatility by Stephen Gandel and Nicholas Megaw and Colby Smith—The Financial Times
Bank Turmoil Squeezes Borrowers, Raising Fears of a Slowdown by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times
Banks' Demand for Reserves in the Face of Liquidity Regulations by Jane Ihrig—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Money Market Funds: Investment Holdings Detail—The Federal Reserve
Deposit Outflows Shine Light on Fed Program That Pays Money-Market Funds by Eric Wallerstein and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street Journal
ICI Research Perspective: Trends in the Expenses and Fees of Funds, 2022—Investment Company Institute
FAQs: Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operations—Federal Reserve Bank of New York
US Resolution Trust Corporation by Aidan Lawson and Lily Engbith—SSRN
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333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System
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Apr 12
28 min

What has been the impact on trade and the trade deficit since the U.S. implemented tariffs on steel, aluminum, and goods made in China?
Topics covered include:Has the shipping backlog been reduced at U.S. portsWhat are the dangers of running too high of a trade deficitHow large is the U.S. trade deficitWhat has been the impact of U.S. tariffs on trade, domestic production, and pricesHow Chinese direct-to-consumer retail companies Shein and Temu are driving prices of goods ever lowerWhy consumers should demand greater visibility on how products they purchase are made
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Show Notes
The ‘ship backup has ended’ at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports by Alejandra Salgado—Supply Chain Dive
America’s Trade Deficit Surged in 2022, Nearing $1 Trillion by Ana Swanson—The New York Times
Industry study tracks China tariffs’ added costs to importers and consumers by Ben Unglesbee—Supply Chain Dive
Costs of Trade Wars: The Distributional Consequences of US Section 301 Tariffs Against China by Kara M. Reynolds—SSRN
Certain Effects of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs Reduced Imports and Increased Prices and Production in Many U.S. Industries by USITC—United States International Trade Commission
Economic Impact of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs on U.S. Industries by USITC—United States International Trade Commission
The other Chinese apps taking the US and UK by storm by Chelsea Bailey—BBC
Secretive Shein Founders Build $40 Billion Fortune in Rapid Fashion by Venus Feng and Pei Yi Mak—Bloomberg
Shein sets ambitious revenue target ahead of IPO by Rachel Douglass—Fashion United
Shein copycats chase its explosive growth by Eleanor Olcott, Qianer Liu, and Gloria Li—The Financial Times
Temu’s Big Haul by Ella Apostoaie—The Wire China
The High Price of Fast Fashion by Dana Thomas—The Wall Street Journal
Stealing More than Just Designs: Utilizing Environmental Law as a Remedy to Design Piracy by Fast Fashion Brands by Spencer Kluth—SSRN
Shein’s Cotton Tied to Chinese Region Accused of Forced Labor by Sheridan Prasso—Bloomberg
Worn: A People's History of Clothing by Sofi Thanhauser—Penguin Random House
More than ever, our clothes are made of plastic. Just washing them can pollute the oceans. by Brian Resnick—Vox
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212: Trade Wars Increase Prices and Poverty
413: What if the World Stopped Shopping?
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Apr 5
26 min

David has a fascinating discussion with Kristof Gleich about active management, indexing, and how ETFs and mutual funds really work.
Topics covered include:Should individual investors even try to select active mutual fundsIs there an indexing bubbleWhy are there so many new ETFsShould we be worried about an ETF flash crashWhat do ETF market makers and authorized participants doDo SEC yields for international equity mutual funds and ETFs reflect the impact of dividend withholding taxes
As the president and CIO of Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc. Kristof Gleich oversees all Investment, Distribution & Marketing and Executive Office functions at Harbor. He provides insight while helping lead Harbor’s strategic growth plan.
Previously, Kristof was a managing director and global head of manager selection at JP Morgan Chase & Co. He has a degree in Physics from University of Bristol.
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311: Did ETFs Pass the 2020 Market Collapse Stress Test?
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Mar 26
49 min

"If something is profitable, it will be done," says Martin Wolf of the Financial Times. We explore how profits will drive the energy transition and how and where water from the Colorado River is used.
Topics covered include:How profits have led to higher energy market share for natural gas and renewal energyWhat is hindering a faster transition to renewablesWhat is contributing to a water shortage in the southwestern U.S,. and how will it be resolvedWhy big infrastructure projects often aren't the best solution to solve a problemWhy some regulation is helpful
For more information on this episode click here.
Show Notes
The market can deliver the green transition by Martin Wolf—The Financial Times
Where the Water Goes: Life and Death Along the Colorado River by David Owen—Penguin Random House
Economics may take us to net zero all on its own by John Burn-Murdoch—The Financial Times
The Gregor Letter by Gregor Macdonald—Substack
The Inflation Reduction Act: Here's what's in it—McKinsey & Company
Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role by Charles V. Stern and Pervaze A. Sheikh—Congressional Research Service
The Supreme Court wrestles with questions over the Navajo Nation's water rights by Becky Sullivan—NPR
As the Colorado River Shrinks, Washington Prepares to Spread the Pain by Christopher Flavelle—The New York Times
Can Western States Agree on the Future of the Colorado River? by Matt Vasilogambros—Pew
A matter of priorities by DeEtte Person—Know Your Water News
Average monthly water prices in the United States as of July 2022, by selected state—Statista
Election to Designate AMA for the Douglas Basin—Arizona Department of Water Resources
Arizona Is in a Race to the Bottom of Its Water Wells, With Saudi Arabia’s Help by Natalie Koch—The New York Times
Arizona gets serious about piping water from Mexico in nonbinding desalination resolution by Brandon Loomis—AZ Central
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Mar 22
28 min
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