“Cycles have no respect for trends.” Michael Howell is on the show to explain why global liquidity, not Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, is the force driving Bitcoin, gold and global markets. Michael argues that the liquidity cycle has already peaked and may not bottom until the second half of 2027. He warns that tighter liquidity could create further downside before the next major monetary expansion begins. We get into the five-to-six-year debt refinancing cycle, why central banks are ultimately forced to keep supplying liquidity, China’s influence on the gold market, the growing debt maturity wall, and why the “great debasement” of Western currencies may still lie ahead. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Michael Howell: https://substack.com/@capitalwars

"Bitcoin treasury companies are not the equivalent of altcoins, but there’s a very similar lesson that has to be learned: they’re a great way to get less Bitcoin." Parker Lewis is back on the show to explain why Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy (MSTR) may underperform Bitcoin, and why the digital capital narrative gets Bitcoin wrong. Parker argues that investors buying treasury company stocks are often paying a premium to take on more risk: leverage, dilution, corporate expenses, execution risk, counterparty exposure and potential tax drag. While the company may accumulate more Bitcoin, he explains why that does not necessarily mean its shareholders are getting more Bitcoin for their money. We also get into Michael Saylor’s changing message, the difference between Bitcoin as money and “digital capital,” and why Bitcoin payments are essential to its long-term success. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Parker Lewis: https://x.com/parkeralewis

“In my opinion, not just Bitcoin, but the direction of society for our lifetimes and our kids’ lifetimes will be decided in the next five to ten years.” Brandon Quittem is back on the show to get into whether Bitcoin can survive its transition from a countercultural movement into a global financial asset without losing the qualities that make it revolutionary. We discuss the growing concentration of bitcoin in custodians and ETFs, the threat of paper Bitcoin, the importance of protecting self-custody, and why cultural apathy may be Bitcoins biggest danger. We also get into the Fourth Turning, institutional decay, AI, political polarisation and the battle between centralised control and individual sovereignty. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\\\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Brandon Quittem: https://x.com/Bquittem

“I think in ten years, the financial system and the Bitcoin system are going to collide.” Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of Crypto Voices and one of the leading voices on Bitcoin's power law and global money supply data. In this episode, we get into whether the Bitcoin power law has finally broken, why the four-year cycle still appears intact, and what the data suggests about the current market and a possible $500,000 Bitcoin in 2029. We also explore the coming collision between Bitcoin’s slowing power law growth, a financial system built on exponential credit and whether Bitcoin will force that system to change or ultimately be co-opted by it. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\\\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Matthew Mezinskis: https://x.com/1basemoney

"They will allow inflation to run hotter than they'll admit to." James Lavish is co-founder of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter. In this episode, we discuss Kevin Warsh's first months as Fed chair and whether the Fed is about to change how it measures inflation. We get into the inflation task force, the trimmed mean PCE, why the 2% target was always arbitrary, and how the balance sheet is quietly expanding through treasury buybacks and QE light. We also cover credit card delinquencies hitting 2008 levels, the K-shaped economy, whether the Fed is hoping AI bails them out of the debt problem, the circular AI trade, and why James is confident Bitcoin will be back at all-time highs within 12 months. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish

“Maybe it’s time to kill your heroes again, and Saylor is now the hero to slay in this cycle.” Fernando Nikolic is the founder of Perception. In this episode, we get into whether Bitcoin has lost its narrative, why Michael Saylor’s messaging has changed, and how narratives can move markets. Fernando breaks down the shift from Saylor’s early Bitcoin maximalist language to the more recent focus on credit, derivatives and Strategy as a financial product. We also get into whether Bitcoin’s rebel era is over, why the ETF approval may have marked the end of Bitcoin as a countercultural movement, and whether Bitcoin adoption is now becoming more fragmented, boring and inevitable. We also get into the death of monoculture, the way the internet has broken shared reality, and how AI, Spotify and algorithmic feeds are creating a more homogenised culture. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Fernando Nikolic: https://x.com/basedlayer

“Bitcoin’s value prop remains unchanged and a 50% drawdown isn’t something that should scare you. It should be viewed as an opportunity.” Joe Consorti is back on the show to break down why he thinks the Bitcoin bottom may be closer than many people expect, why $50k is the key level to watch, and why October or November could mark the final low before Bitcoin begins moving into its next bull market. We discuss: – Bitcoin below $60k – Whether the four-year cycle is still alive – The role of inflation, oil, midterms, and global liquidity – Why capital has rotated into the AI trade – Michael Saylor, Strategy, MSTR, STRC – Why central banks can’t stop printing money – Why the Bitcoin thesis remains unchanged THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Joe Consorti: https://x.com/JoeConsorti

“The game has changed, it’s very clear.” Matt Dines is a fixed-income portfolio manager and host of Mind Print Hash. In this episode, we get into why he believes the dollar system has already changed and why Bitcoin may be the endgame. For decades, global markets have been built around the offshore dollar system: LIBOR, Fed backstops, QE, ZIRP and the assumption that every crisis ends with more liquidity. But Matt argues that world is being replaced by something very different: a Treasury-led dollar system built around T-bills, SOFR, regulated stablecoins and a new set of geopolitical incentives. We discuss why 2022 was such an important inflection point, how the move from LIBOR to SOFR changed the structure of dollar markets, why the GENIUS Act matters for stablecoin rails, and what Treasury dominance means for the Fed, global credit and Bitcoin. We also get into MicroStrategy and STRC, the risks facing Bitcoin treasury companies, why dollar liquidity still drives Bitcoin markets, how geopolitics is reshaping the financial system, the path to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and why holding real Bitcoin still matters. Bitcoin is not just another risk asset in this transition. It may become the base layer for a new monetary system, but getting there will be volatile, political and tied to the future of the dollar. In this episode: Strategy, STRC and Bitcoin treasury company risk From Fed dominance to Treasury dominance The end of the petrodollar Why capital markets are war by another means The path to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Why Bitcoin is the endgame THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Matt Dines: https://x.com/LeveredUSTs

“The market is trying to find a villain right now—and Saylor is that guy.” Adam Livingston explains the pressure building around Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy and STRC as the preferred stock trades at $88, well below its $100 par value. Is STRC broken, or is the market mispricing Strategy’s credit risk? Adam explains how STRC works, why its yield has climbed above 13%, whether it can recover to par, and what Strategy’s capital structure means for MSTR shareholders. We also get into dilution, dividend coverage, Strategy’s use of its cash reserve and whether Saylor is now forced to keep accelerating his Bitcoin strategy. We also get into the Bitcoin bear market, the possibility of a market bottom and why Adam believes the current environment is presenting a major buying opportunity. In this episode: Why STRC is trading below par Whether Michael Saylor is trapped The risks facing MSTR shareholders Bitcoin treasury companies and “digital credit” Bitcoin’s potential market bottom The Fed, inflation and monetary repression THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Adam Livingston: https://x.com/AdamBLiv

“The whole goddamn thing is a charade… finger in the air, wild-ass guess, total gaslighting and bullshit.” In this episode, Lawrence Lepard is back on the show to explain why the Fed is trapped between persistent inflation, an accelerating sovereign debt crisis and a financial system that cannot withstand genuinely tight monetary policy. Lawrence breaks down the Fed’s retreat from forward guidance, why its new playbook gives policymakers cover to change course without warning, and why he believes today’s hawkish stance will ultimately give way to rate cuts and more money creation. We also explore his “decade of inflation” thesis. He argues that the cycle began in 2020, that double-digit inflation is still ahead, and that a major disruption in the Treasury or bond market could trigger a “break-glass” response from the Fed, sending Bitcoin, gold and other hard assets dramatically higher. In this episode: • Why the Federal Reserve is abandoning forward guidance • How the Fed could redefine inflation • The sovereign debt problem • Why double-digit inflation is coming • Lawrence's outlook for Bitcoin and gold THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN CAPE FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Lawrence Lepard: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard