Germany’s far-right party has won a major victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, although it remains to be seen whether the AfD will be able to form a government there.Nevertheless, the result has sent shockwaves not only through Germany, but across Europe too. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, a far-right party could gain power in a German state.Why is the AfD surging? How much is its success being driven by immigration, economic frustration and anger at the political establishment? And what could its rise mean for Germany’s relationship with Russia, NATO and the EU?Matt Frei is joined by author and commentator John Kampfner and Dr Sarah Wagner, a researcher in political science at Queen’s University Belfast, to examine whether this is a political blip or a watershed moment for Germany and Europe.

Senior Reform officials have been caught on camera discussing ways to get thousands of pounds of foreign money into the party, potentially breaking electoral law.[Subscribe to our Substack newsletter: https://channel4news.substack.com/subscribe]A Channel 4 News and Verbatim Investigations investigation found that James Orr, Reform’s Head of Policy, and Dan Jukes, a close aide to Nigel Farage, arranged for a US company to secretly fund three influential polls commissioned by the party. Since we aired the story, the two officials involved have stepped down from their positions but deny wrongdoing, and rival parties have reported Reform to the police. The Reform party has denied wrongdoing and launched an internal investigation. Nigel Farage has insisted that the party has broken no laws.To discuss all of this, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by political commentator and former Reform member Tim Montgomerie, Labour MP Dame Emily Thornberry, as well as the barrister and election law expert Tom Gillie.

A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods.But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change?On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead.He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions.As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?

Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have faded as retaliatory strikes flare up once again across the Middle East. And with Donald Trump warning of further military escalation, is the world at risk of yet another economic shock?So what’s behind the new wave of strikes in the Middle East? And could Iran be at risk of losing control of its ultimate bargaining chip - the Strait of Hormuz.In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban break down the geopolitical signals shaping this war. Joined by the economist Neil Shearing from Capital Economics, they discuss global markets, inflation, and whether an exit strategy exists for either side.

Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will? Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling. On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.

Meta has agreed to a landmark settlement over allegations that its platforms harmed children and teenagers - raising a much bigger question about how social media is designed and regulated.On this episode of The Fourcast, we look at what the settlement actually means for Instagram and Facebook users, whether other social media companies could be forced to follow suit, and whether this could fundamentally change the way we use social media.Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by visiting professor at Stony Brook University School of Journalism and author of ‘Hot Type’ Jeff Jarvis and Associate Professor in Digital Humanities at University College London, Kaitlyn Regehr.In a statement released after the settlement, Meta said the agreement is not an admission of wrongdoing, but a new framework designed to give parents more control and teenagers stronger protections. It says the measures will only work if TikTok and YouTube adopt the same rules, because teenagers move between multiple platforms.

Britain is doubling down on its support for Ukraine, backing a deal that could see Ukraine produce its own long-range missiles as Russia intensifies its attacks.But as Moscow ramps up its missile production and warns of further mobilisation, Ukraine is facing growing pressure on its air defences and ammunition supplies. Meanwhile, questions remain over whether Europe can fill the gap if US support continues to weaken.On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum and Guardian foreign correspondent Luke Harding to discuss Britain's growing role in the war, the state of the battlefield and whether Ukraine's allies are becoming weary of the conflict.Could long-range Ukrainian missiles change the war? Is Russia winning the war of attrition? And how far is Britain prepared to go to support Ukraine?

Is Donald Trump driving the world economy off a cliff while you’re on your summer holiday? America has just passed $40 trillion of debt. Trump’s tariffs are pushing up prices, his tax cuts are adding to the deficit, and his war with Iran has sent oil prices soaring. Now bond markets are turning on him. The US treasury has tried to step in and calm the bond markets, but it doesn’t appear to have worked. So what exactly is going on? Is this just a wobble in the bond markets - or a sign of something much worse to come? On this episode of The Fourcast, Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Pippa Malmgren, who served as an economic adviser to President Bush, and The Economist’s Archie Hall.

Should Britain tax wealth more heavily? With the government under pressure to find billions for public services and defence, Andy Burnham has refused to rule out a wealth tax. But would taxing the richest households actually raise significant money, or drive wealth, investment and entrepreneurs out of the country?On The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Gabriel Zucman, economist and author of 'We Need to Tax Billionaires' and economist Arthur Laffer, creator of the Laffer Curve.So how unequal is Britain? Has wealth become undertaxed compared with income? And if Britain doesn't tax the richest more, where else should the government find the money?

Nigel Farage has secured re-election in the Clacton by-election, but his political gamble to "stick two fingers up to the establishment" hasn’t gone according to plan. With novelty candidate Count Binface as Farage’s primary challenger, the self-described intergalactic space warrior secured nearly 10,000 votes.With Farage's personal favorability ratings dropping and accusations that he skipped the declaration to avoid being "humiliated by nobodies," has the Reform leader’s publicity stunt severely backfired? In this episode of The Fourcast, Alex Thomson speaks to Popular Conservatism director Mark Littlewood, columnist Sonia Sodha, and polling expert Luke Tryl (Reform UK were unable to find anyone from the party to appear on the podcast).They analyse whether Reform UK is losing its political momentum, how the ongoing standards investigation affects Farage's future, and whether Britain's political right is facing a deep crisis of credibility.