Nigel Farage has secured re-election in the Clacton by-election, but his political gamble to "stick two fingers up to the establishment" hasn’t gone according to plan. With novelty candidate Count Binface as Farage’s primary challenger, the self-described intergalactic space warrior secured nearly 10,000 votes.With Farage's personal favorability ratings dropping and accusations that he skipped the declaration to avoid being "humiliated by nobodies," has the Reform leader’s publicity stunt severely backfired? In this episode of The Fourcast, Alex Thomson speaks to Popular Conservatism director Mark Littlewood, columnist Sonia Sodha, and polling expert Luke Tryl (Reform UK were unable to find anyone from the party to appear on the podcast).They analyse whether Reform UK is losing its political momentum, how the ongoing standards investigation affects Farage's future, and whether Britain's political right is facing a deep crisis of credibility.

In the West Bank village of Qusra, Israeli settlers have spent days besieging Palestinian homes, cutting residents off from food and water - an attack even Donald Trump’s ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, has condemned as a “horrific act of terror”. But this incident appears to be part of an escalation of settler violence in the West Bank this year. So can Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, who have at times condemned the violence but have also done so much to embolden settlers, reign it in? Or is the situation spiralling out of control? In a statement, the Israeli military said that soldiers had been deployed in Qusra since Thursday morning to protect residents and maintain security, and "were instructed that the Qusra residents will remain in their homes."The military added that "soldiers will not operate inside the Palestinian family's home located near the site where the tent that was evacuated and dismantled had been erected".On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by former Israeli ambassador to Canada Alan Baker, who was part of a commission set up by Benjamin Netanyahu to investigate the legality of settlements in the West Bank. He was also joined by Palestinian ambassador to Unesco Adel Atieh and Haaretz senior analyst Esther Solomon.

In 2019, Theresa May positioned the UK as a global climate leader by enshrining a legally binding Net Zero target by 2050. Fast forward seven years, and the political landscape on the British Right has transformed dramatically. With Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch proposing to repeal Net Zero targets and Reform UK labeling green policies "net-stupid-zero," the consensus around climate action is fracturing. All this comes as the UK endures repeated heatwaves, droughts, and severe economic impacts—with summer heatwaves costing an estimated £4.4bn in lost productivity alongside thousands of excess deaths. As extreme weather directly threatens agriculture and rural communities, is the Right out of step with voters, or are they tapping into growing cost-of-living concerns?In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei explores whether Net Zero scepticism is pragmatic economics or climate denial in disguise. Matt is joined by former Energy Minister Graham Stuart MP, Net Zero Scrutiny Group member Lord Peter Lilley, and former NFU President Baroness Minette Batters to debate conservative ideology, economic reality, and the electoral risks facing the Right.

AI is increasingly being used to find vulnerabilities, exploit networks and carry out cyberattacks - but how autonomous are these systems really?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei asks whether we are approaching a world where AI agents can conduct cyberattacks with little or no human intervention. Could an AI maintain access to a network, evade attempts to shut it down or even copy itself?Matt is joined by AI safety expert and author of Considerations on the AI Endgame, Dr Roman V. Yampolskiy, and Katie Moussouris, founder and CEO of Luta Security and a former contributor to the US government's ‘Hack the Pentagon’ programme.They discuss the latest AI hacking incidents, whether governments need tougher regulation, who should be responsible when AI causes harm, and whether AI could ultimately become both the biggest cyber threat - and the best defence against it.

The war in Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase, as Kyiv has launched increasingly ambitious long-range strikes deep inside Russia, put mounting pressure on Crimea and sought to bring the war closer to ordinary Russians and Vladimir Putin. But now the Kremlin is hitting back hard. In a missile attack on Kyiv this week, at least 17 people were killed. Now there’s reports of a Ukrainian plane in Leipzig, Germany, being targeted by an explosive-laden drone. It’s not clear who was behind the attack but reporting suggests it could be Russia. So are we witnessing a dangerous new phase of escalation? On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by economist Timothy Ash from Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme.

Just a few months ago, Nigel Farage and Reform UK looked unstoppable. After sweeping the local elections and topping opinion polls, many believed Reform was on course for government. But has the momentum already begun to fade?A string of controversies - including police investigations, questions over party finances, and a £5 million donation from a Thailand-based cryptocurrency billionaire - has put Reform under growing pressure. With the party slipping in the polls, are these scandals finally cutting through with voters, or is this just another setback Farage will survive?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Tim Ross from Politico, former Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler and Labour strategist Claire Ainsley to examine what's gone wrong for Reform, whether Andy Burnham has given Labour a route back to power, why the Greens are also losing ground, and what the latest polling tells us about the future of British politics.

After around 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African territory of Ceuta, far-right politicians across Europe quickly branded the events an "invasion." But with most migrants already returning to Morocco and UK illegal boat crossings dropping to a five-year low—down 43% compared to 2025—what is actually driving the debate around European border control?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Director of the Migration Observatory Madeleine Sumption, Director of Politics at Ipsos Keiran Pedley, and Austrian migration expert Gerald Knaus.They discuss whether the incident in Ceuta could drive a new surge for the far-right across Europe, how the UK could be affected and if immigration is still the hot topic for voters.

Despite his job seemingly looking assured just a few weeks ago, Gianni Infantino’s position as President of FIFA is now in jeopardy.With the footballing federations of Europe, North America and Asia all rejecting Infantino’s plans to sell off part of the World Cup to private investors, pressure is piling on Infantino. Even the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham says Infantino is the “wrong man” to lead FIFA.On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Channel 4’s Sports Reporter, Jordan Jarrett-Bryan, as well as Abiola Ijasanmi the former Chief Operating Officer from the Confederation of African Football.They discuss whether Infantino has badly mis-read the situation and - could he actually could be forced out of this job?

The war between the United States and Iran has spread across the Middle East. Fresh strikes in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt, alongside escalating Houthi attacks on international shipping, have raised fears that the region is entering a dangerous new phase. With Washington intensifying its military campaign and Iran relying on its network of allied militias, is this becoming a wider regional war?On this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by Professor Madawi al-Rasheed from the London School of Economics Middle East Centre. They discuss why the Houthis are stepping up attacks, whether Saudi Arabia is being pulled into the fighting despite its efforts to avoid it, how Iraqi militias could become a new flashpoint, and whether the US has a long-term strategy, or is being drawn into another prolonged Middle East war.Is there still a path to de-escalation, or are we witnessing the beginning of a conflict that could engulf the wider region?

Social care is the thorny issue which politicians have failed to solve for decades.Today though, the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham put it back on the political agenda as he called for a ‘National Care Service’, saying that social care in the UK is “as unfair” as the healthcare system in the US.On this week’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by the former Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary Damien Green, Professor Richard Humphries who is a Senior Policy Advisor at the Health Foundation and the Liberal Democrat MP and Chair of the Health Select Committee Layla Moran. They discuss why the current system is not fit for purpose, why previous efforts at reform have failed and whether Andy Burnham could be the one to finally solve it.