A potentially “supersized” El Niño is forecast for this winter - and scientists warn it could bring more extreme weather, from droughts and heatwaves to devastating floods.

But what happens when El Niño collides with a world already being reshaped by climate change?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether governments, businesses and the global financial system are prepared for the shocks ahead.

He speaks to Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience at the University of Reading and an anticipatory action expert at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, who explains how early warning systems can help communities prepare before disaster strikes, and economist Dr Matthew Winning, from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, looks at the wider economic consequences - from food prices and supply chains to insurance, investment and our pensions.

As extreme weather becomes harder to predict, should we rethink the way we plan for disasters? And is it already too late to rely on the old idea of a “one-in-100-year” event?