Odd Lots
Odd Lots
Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets.
Steve Eisman on the 'Paradigm Shift' Happening in Markets Right Now
After a decade of dominance, 2022 saw tech stocks badly underperform the rest of the market. However, so far in 2023, tech stocks and other speculations have surged again. According to Steve Eisman, what we're seeing is the natural process by which a "paradigm shift" is playing out in stocks. Eisman, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, won big betting against CDOs during the Great Financial Crisis and was famously depicted in the book and movie The Big Short as one of the few investors who got it right. In this conversation, he talks about lessons learned from his career in investing, how and why big shifts happen in markets, the state of the financial system, and what sectors could win over the next decade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Feb 6
48 min
Viktor Shvets Declares Victory for Team Transitory and the Soft Landing
It was looking bad there for awhile for Team Transitory. Anyone who had previously even uttered the word "transitory" in regards to inflation was regretting having used it. But lately the term is creeping back in, particularly as inflation decelerates while the unemployment rate remains low. So was the transitory perspective right all along? And is the fabled "soft landing" actually here? Macquarie Capital strategist Viktor Shvets believes it is. On this episode, the return Odd Lots guest gives his view of the economy and why he never gave up on his transitory stance. He talks about why inflation is falling and how many sources of anxiety — from geopolitical risk to deglobalization — won't materialize in the manner that many people are expecting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Feb 1
47 min
The "Big Shift" That's Finally Causing Rents to Fall
Rent inflation went wild in 2021 and 2022, turning it into one of the most substantial drivers of overall inflation. But good news: it seems pretty clear that rents are now finally falling. Private sector measures, from companies like Apartment List and Zillow are starting to show a clear decline. So what's changed? How hard could rents drop? And could a renter in a place like New York City actually get a rent reduction? On this episode of Odd Lots, we speak with Chris Salviati, the top housing economist at Apartment List, to discuss what's changed and what 2023 has in store.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 30
41 min
Why Corporate America Still Runs on Ancient Software That Breaks
Southwest Airlines had a disastrous holiday season, thanks in part to a software bug that left crews out of place and grounded thousands of flights. But Southwest isn't alone in having software in the headlines lately. The New York Stock Exchange recently had a software error that caused weird pricing on stocks and the FAA had its own computer issue that grounded planes earlier this month. So what's the deal with corporate software? Why do these crashes happen? And why does the user experience typically leave something to be desired? On this episode of the podcast we speak with Patrick McKenzie, an expert on engineering and infrastructure, who writes the Bits About Money newsletter and recently left payments company Stripe after six years. We talked about the challenges of keeping any software system alive after years of upgrades and updates, the distribution of tech talent across industries, and whether non-tech companies can close the gap with Silicon Valley.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 26
47 min
What The Heck Is Happening With the Price of Eggs?
The price of eggs rose 60% in 2022, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, wholesale egg prices are up 300% in the last year, creating a chart that looks almost parabolic. So what's going on? And is there any relief in sight? On this episode, we speak with Glenn Hickman, president of Hickman's Family Farms, an Arizona egg farm with roughly 10 million chickens. Glenn explains why egg prices have been shooting higher, the role of the Covid-19 pandemic, and how farms are responding to the outbreak of avian flu.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 23
40 min
The 'Widowmaker' Crypto Trade That Helped Blow Up an Industry
Over the last year, numerous things have gone wrong for the crypto industry. (Too many to list.) But one thing we've learned is that there's an incredibly high degree of interconnectedness between various firms, all borrowing and lending from each other in a way that created a tremendous amount of fragility. A key entity in all this is GBTC, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which was one of the first regulated entities that allowed ordinary investors to get Bitcoin price exposure. Over time, this trust turned into a behemoth, with numerous players making massive leveraged bets on it. On this episode, we speak with Ram Ahulwalia, the CEO of Lumida Wealth, who explains how the fund works, how the trade worked for investors, and why it's ended in tears for so many players.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 20
37 min
Isabella Weber On a New Way to Think About Inflation
In economics, there tends to be two dominant ways of thinking about inflation. Either you agree with Milton Friedman, who described inflation as always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon (the result of too much money printing). Or you're more of a New Keynesian who thinks that higher prices are all about the relationship between demand and capacity. In a new paper inspired by Odd Lots and the series of disruptions that have rocked the economy since the global pandemic, UMass Amherst Economics Professor Isabella Weber describes a potential third way of thinking about inflation. She identifies systemically significant sources of inflation, or industries that could end up having a broader impact on a wide variety of prices. The hope is that by identifying these important sources of inflation early, policymakers can put in place measures to make sure price increases don't get out of hand. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 19
37 min
Ex-Logger Aims to Beat Elon Musk in Electric Trucks
While electric vehicle use is growing rapidly, the internal combustion engine remains completely dominant in the world of heavy trucks. At some point in the future, Tesla has a plan to commercialize an electric semi, but nobody really knows when. Meanwhile, other entities are looking to compete in the world of industrial vehicles. Chace Barber is a former trucker in the logging industry, which has some very different characteristics than the type of freight trucking you typically see on a highway. When you're driving over the Rocky Mountains, without easy proximity to mechanics, tow trucks or service stations, you need power and reliability. His company, Edison Motors, is building its own trucks with a hybrid diesel-electric approach that it sees as a better path forward. On this episode, we discuss the challenges of hauling logs, as well as how it's possible for a small entity to get in the game of building such large industrial equipment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 16
52 min
Why Banks Are Suddenly Borrowing From the Fed's Discount Window
The discount window at the Federal Reserve allows banks to borrow money at an above-market rate in exchange for high-quality collateral. The facility is always available to use, but typically nobody does. Not only is the borrowing costlier, there's also a "stigma" associated with its usage, since the perception is that if you use it your institution might be in some kind of financial distress. So why has some entity (or multiple entities) been using it lately? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute and a former employee of the Federal Reserve who helped design and manage the discount window for 10 years. We discuss what the program is, its history and how it's used today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 13
38 min
Neil Dutta and Conor Sen on the Chances of a US Soft Landing
The most recent jobs report has revived talk that the US economy might pull off the fabled "soft landing." Jobs are still growing nicely and the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. But wages are decelerating and there are reasons to think that inflation is rolling over as well. So can Jerome Powell & Co. smoothly land the plane, so to speak? On this episode of Odd Lots we speak with Neil Dutta, chief economist at Renaissance Macro Research, and Conor Sen, a columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, about the US macro situation, as well as the rental market and the impact of China's reopening.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jan 12
51 min
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