FiveThirtyEight Politics
FiveThirtyEight Politics
FiveThirtyEight, 538, ABC News, Nate Silver
Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle
The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterm’s primaries.
Aug 10
44 min
Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating?
The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out.
Aug 8
59 min
Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion
The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.
Aug 3
50 min
All The Political News You Missed Last Week
The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump.
Aug 1
1 hr 12 min
The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again)
In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms.
Jul 25
1 hr 5 min
Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans.
Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at The New York Times, joins the crew to discuss the results of the latest Times/Siena College midterm polling. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling."
Jul 18
1 hr 7 min
Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022?
In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, “Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power,” and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond.
Jul 14
53 min
The Supreme Court Episode
With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall.
Jul 11
1 hr 9 min
Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump?
The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the state’s likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
Jul 5
56 min
The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns!
The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterms forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites to win the House while the Senate is a toss up between the two parties. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast.
Jun 30
40 min
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