] Simone Collins: This big Ponzi scheme we like to call the American economy isn’t just going to make it without a bunch of kids cranked out en masse to keep the wheels spinning, right?[00:00:08] Well, friends, I’ve got news for you here too. You do not approach the net neutral in taxes paid versus consumed unless you are in the top 10% of income for 40 plus years. Oh. Interesting argument here. So only the rich people have to get married[00:00:23] Malcolm Collins: Okay, I buy this.[00:00:25] Yeah, let’s get rid ofSterilize all- ... the average person. Ster- and Leaflet has said this as well, that we should offer money- Yes ... for people to sterilize themselves. Yeah. Let’s move to le- what do we call this? Twist. Like, dark pronatalism?[00:00:36] Simone Collins: Twist.[00:00:37] Elitist pronatalism. We’ve always been accused of elitism.[00:00:40] You know, oh, the Collinses, they want people to have kids, but only the right people. And they want everyone to think that we’re like white people or like, Christian people, but we’re like, no, just like competent, happy people. Well, wow. I mean, yeah, I, I like that it’s always really fun when something fundamentally changes our view of something,[00:00:58] Speaker 3: So for context, today’s episode is actually one that I had not planned on releasing to the general public. We had planned on doing this as a paid private episode. and throughout most of it, what you will see is us being rather snarky and dismissive of the ideas being presented because we’re like, “Well, what’s the alternative?[00:01:17] What’s the alternative? What’s the alternative?” And at the end of it, I was convinced, I think that this person makes a pretty good argument. And so this has been a major sea change in how I see reality, , which is to say it could be actively harmful and selfish to fight for the vast majority of people to get married and have kids.[00:01:40] ,[00:01:40] Speaker 4: Because the vast majority of people make bad partners, they make bad parents, they make bad children, and they would live a worse life if they were married and had kids[00:01:54] Speaker 3: Whereas the virtuous thing is to just replace them[00:01:58] But see if it convinces you as well[00:02:01] Would you like to know more?[00:02:02] Simone Collins: Hello, Malcolm. I’m excited to be speaking with you today because today we’re doing a listener request. So those are always really exciting. We have a lot of people with excellent taste. And I- Do we?[00:02:15] Malcolm Collins: Do we? Yeah. Yeah, we do.[00:02:17] Simone Collins: Yeah, we do. Yeah.[00:02:17] Malcolm Collins: I actually quite like our fans. They, they’re, I, I like you guys because you typically are living productive lives and doing interesting stuff, which is neat.[00:02:24] Yeah,[00:02:25] Simone Collins: like s- smart people who always give us new ideas and push[00:02:28] Malcolm Collins: us further. And the number of you who have found partners and started making kids since we started this podcast is astonishing.[00:02:34] Simone Collins: It makes us really happy. Yeah. So if you’re still looking, don’t give up. There’s a lot of hope, and you could be next.[00:02:40] So-[00:02:40] Malcolm Collins: And I, I promise you guys, it gets better as they get a bit older.[00:02:44] Simone Collins: Oh, yeah, ‘cause... Yeah, Malcolm has been reading my old diaries from early in our pre-married and newlywed days, and apparently it sucks. Wait, that’s gonna dissuade people.[00:02:55] Malcolm Collins: Not the women- Ignore ... the babies.[00:02:57] Simone Collins: Oh, the babies. Okay.[00:02:58] Malcolm Collins: But the women also get better.[00:02:59] Yeah, we got in fights all the time in the early days.[00:03:02] Simone Collins: Not fights. We disagreed about things strategically, but sure, fights. What we had been s- encouraged to read is a, a Substack post by an excellence name- excellently named Substack, Performative Bafflement. I’ve always loved the name of this Substack.[00:03:17] Haven’t read everything in it. Haven’t read this. The title of this particular article that we’re gonna read is Against More Marriage as a Solution to the Fertility Crisis: Let’s Create the Torment Nexus to Pump Out a Few Incremental Taxpayers. All right, let’s go into it. It has 66 likes, 48 comments, and 15 restacks, so did pretty well.[00:03:37] They write, “Okay, so we all know about the fertility crisis, right? All the developed countries are going extinct. Many consider this bad or worrisome idea, et cetera. Said crisis is happening for hundreds of interlocking reasons, but the big KPI people like to point to here seems to be marriage. /Marriage directly tracks fertility, and the decline in relationship formation and marriage drives [00:04:00] most of the fertility gap since 2000.”[00:04:02] He inserts graphs showing the clear... what looks to be causation. Okay, okay. It is correlation, but looks like it. “One of the main solutions,” he writes, “to the fertility crisis that most folks seem to like is pro-marriage incentives and initiatives. I am here to argue against this. These people are basically advocating for creating the torment nexus for megafolks of people,” megafolks, “to pump out a few incremental taxpayers.[00:04:29] My position: Let’s not create a torment nexus, please and thank you. Aren’t I being totally histrionic and ridiculous here?” What? Let’s see. Okay, I wanna see where they’re[00:04:36] Malcolm Collins: going with this. I have no idea. I have no idea where they[00:04:38] Simone Collins: could be going. Yeah, my guess is they’re just gonna be like, “I don’t know, let the system break.[00:04:41] I don’t wanna grind for some boomers to have more Social Security.”[00:04:47] Malcolm Collins: Is this a leftists or a right? I don’t even know. I, I, they[00:04:49] Simone Collins: could be like a big toe It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. I don’t care because Performative Bafflement is a great Substack name, and I’m not gonna color your view of this person.[00:04:57] Don’t click on their Substack. Be good.[00:04:58] Speaker: So I decided to check and they are, , center right, , and of the based variety. They talk a lot about genetics, stuff like that, , working out, that sort of stuff, but not, you know, as, probably as far as us, , and male. , So at least I didn’t have my mind changed by a lefty woman as I thought[00:05:17] Simone Collins: Okay, let’s go into the argument. Sexual, sorry, sexual. Where is my mind today? Secular marriage trends. First, they’re absolutely right that marriage is declining. It has been declining every single generation since the ‘40s, when we hit a local peak of 90% marriage rates, which have, which drove the baby boom.[00:05:37] 90%. I didn’t know that, actually. Can you imagine living in a society where nine out of 10 people were married?[00:05:44] Malcolm Collins: No[00:05:45] Simone Collins: It’s crazy. Okay, I continue. Literally every single generation on generation since then, each cohort of women has looked out at the world, said, “Well, nope,” and opted out of marriage at higher rates than the one before.[00:05:59] And they show a graph of women in the US by decade of birth who are getting married, and it, it ain’t looking, it ain’t looking good. The, it’s, it’s, it looks like a rainbow that’s dying. And I continue, and just as a note, I am framing this as primarily women’s choice because one, women are traditionally proposed to and say yes or no.[00:06:22] Two, historically women are the sex that wants and pushes for marriage while in a relationship more often. Three, women getting educated and having jobs and careers of their own is a big part of the fertility crisis in the sense those things all reduce fertility when first introduced to a society. And indirect-[00:06:41] Malcolm Collins: Wait, that doesn’t sound right.[00:06:41] Do women push for marriage more than men? I don’t think so.[00:06:44] Simone Collins: So these days definitely men are pushing more for marriage, so she’s, I mean, she’s right that women are, are driving the decline in marriage. You can see it in the polling. We’ve done plenty of episodes that cite this polling. So I, that is true.[00:06:56] When you look at at least historical tropes, ‘cause we didn’t live in this time. I[00:06:59] Malcolm Collins: mean- Yeah, I know historical tropes, but I think the reality is, and, and potentially even into history, that’s been the men, I mean, in a lot of the stories that, you know, I remember from my childhood, the romance stories, it’s the man pushing for marriage.[00:07:11] It’s the- No ... I’ll go to Ipswich for you. It’s the- Mm ... you know, like-[00:07:16] Simone Collins: That’s, those are romances. That’s not reality. Reality is men want to maintain as much optionality as, look, sexually, like from a sexual strategy perspective- Not men who want to have[00:07:25] Malcolm Collins: babies. I pushed you to get married.[00:07:29] Simone Collins: Right. Your mu- your game of musical chairs was rapidly ending.[00:07:33] You, you felt like you’re, I guess m- m-[00:07:37] Malcolm Collins: And I was like 24 at the time when I felt like I was waiting too long. I[00:07:38] Simone Collins: know, but you felt like an old maid or whatever the male equivalent of that is. You, you’re a very unusual case. The, the male strategy has almost always been, look, maintain maximum optionality, string women along, don’t actually commit because then you can move on to another woman.[00:07:52] And even when m- women now in our modern society after no-fault divorce were able to just divorce women when they wanted to and then move [00:08:00] on. Like the, the, there’s a lack of commitment. Although these days I know women initiate the majority of divorces. But no, I, I, I think, I think that checks out. I agree.[00:08:08] I think that most women wanted marriage more than men historically, and often what was ha- what happened even when, like, a woman gets pregnant It’s the shotgun wedding, not because the woman is being held at gunpoint, it’s because the young man is being held at gunpoint. Women can’t escape the reality of having, being pregnant, you know, i- if, if they live in a society or in a family that does not approve of abortion or have a culture that doesn’t approve of it.[00:08:33] Malcolm Collins: Mm-hmm.[00:08:34] Simone Collins: Anyway, yes, I agree with, I w- I agree with performative bafflement. So la, la, la. Four, women being able to have jobs and lives of their own gives them more o- options and is what enables them to opt out of marriage at ever-increasing rates. I am here to argue that this gigantic reduction in marriage rates is an unambiguously good thing, and that the great majority of these ladies are genuinely making smart decisions.[00:08:58] Marriage is a bad idea in the great majority of cases. Broadly, people aren’t compatible because people suck. I mean, come on, Malcolm, you can’t disagree with that. When approximately 90% of women-[00:09:09] Malcolm Collins: Other people suck? Right, but the- If you can find a person who[00:09:12] Simone Collins: sucks in the way that you suck- You’re such an outlier, Malcolm.[00:09:14] Malcolm Collins: There are people who think, progressives think I suck. You know, like...[00:09:18] Simone Collins: Right, and b- b- e- yeah, but we’re very unusual in... We, we both also s- cast a wide net and, and worked... W- I was very targeted in my search. You cast a very wide net and were also very, very choosy and worked extremely hard to find a partner.[00:09:39] Most people don’t work that hard but I think are less choosy, so it, you know, it all washes out. But I, I was so committed to living alone, not because I wasn’t a hopeless romantic, I actually kind of was, but because I couldn’t imagine someone being compatible with me being how weird I am. Yeah,[00:09:55] Malcolm Collins: but[00:09:55] Simone Collins: males-[00:09:55] Malcolm Collins: And look, you had deliberately-[00:09:56] disproportionately push for marriage, b- by a dramatic margin.[00:09:59] Simone Collins: You just checked on AI?[00:10:01] Malcolm Collins: Yeah.[00:10:01] Simone Collins: During what time period?[00:10:05] Malcolm Collins: 2023 data, so not even that recent.[00:10:07] Simone Collins: No, we’re, we’re talking about, like, the 1950s. Obviously now, I said obviously now, men are the ones[00:10:13] Malcolm Collins: pushing the narrative. Well, in the 1950s I believe that men also pushed for it.[00:10:15] I think that, that we are shown a narrative in the media that’s not real or accurate[00:10:22] Simone Collins: Hmm, I don’t know. Chime in in the comments and let us know what you think. Who’s right, Malcolm or Simone? But I will continue. Broadly, people are compatible, blah, blah, blah, they suck. How do we know this? By just looking at actual outcomes, looking at revealed preferences and how people actually end up after marriage.[00:10:39] Obviously, the ever-decreasing marriage rate for each generation of women above, she’s referring to the graph, the sad rainbow, that is driven by something. What could that something be? I’m here to- By the way,[00:10:50] Malcolm Collins: I’m guessing this person’s a leftist because they don’t seem interested in what’s actually true, but just sort of[00:10:54] Simone Collins: what, what’s likely And I’m, I’m assuming that they’re a woman.[00:10:56] I’m here to argue, because these are very common arguments so far that I hear from fem- the female YouTubers I watch, ‘cause I like girly things. I’m here to argue that it’s a genuine reaction to actual marriage quality and outcomes, the empirical outcomes. Even today, when many fewer couples get married and marriage is significantly more selected, divorce base rates are approximately 42% for first marriages, and about half of the remaining marriages are net miserable for at least one party.[00:11:26] That’s roughly two-thirds failure misery rate. She, she doesn’t, I’m assuming she. Performative bafflement doesn’t cite this- That’s because[00:11:33] Malcolm Collins: the people don’t try. They don’t try to get into a good marriage, and they don’t try once they’re married. Yeah,[00:11:36] Simone Collins: and, and look, they’d be miserable by themselves too. I,[00:11:40] Malcolm Collins: I- Yeah, I don’t, I do not know any miserably married people.[00:11:44] Any[00:11:45] Simone Collins: from our generation. Yeah. I mean, I don’t, people like to hide it, I guess. But yeah, at least people- I, I would know ... in the boyscan community are really solid. Anyway think about think how net miserable those 90% of marriages were that were not selected at all and could not get [00:12:00] divorced back in the ‘50s.[00:12:01] Moreover, of the marriages that stayed together, all they predominantly do is make people fat and sexless and miserable. Married weight gain is a strong effect seen in practically every country in the world, even after controlling for genes and personalities. For example, identical twins, one of whom marries and the other does not, the married one typically gains significant weight.[00:12:21] Both you and I weigh less than we did when we got married, which is interesting. The Termik et al 2024 meta-analysis surveys approximately 200,000 couples and approximately 100,000 matched singles across 18 countries, and surfaces a very strong effect size of marriages on obesity. A 1.7 odds ratio, up to 2.5 odds ratio in economic downturns.[00:12:47] Aw. People eat their feelings. And, and the trend reverses. On divorce, both men and women lose weight. On sexless- sexlessness, as far as I can tell, a lot of sources consider fewer than one times a month to be basically a sexless marriage. In GSS, this ranges from 5 to 20% of all marriages that have lasted at least five years, depending on how happy they are and how long they’ve been going.[00:13:11] And obviously there’s giant survivor effect there with the approximately half of them that have been divorced were more likely to be sexless prior to divorce. So fif- five to 20% is the heavy, heavily survivor biased portion of sexless marriages that already have a huge thumb on the scale in terms of upping the amount of sex.[00:13:32] This is to say that I personally think some much larger portion of marriages attain sexlessness. It’s just that the majority of those end up divorced, leaving a relatively more modest five to[00:13:40] Malcolm Collins: 20% remainder. So her thing is it’s a good thing that it’s not happening because most people are failures Okay.[00:13:47] Simone Collins: Yeah. Okay, yeah, that’s, I think that’s broadly what, what is being argued here.[00:13:50] Malcolm Collins: And she’s like, “And you should...” I, I mean, I guess, like, the type of person who’s not finding a partner today is the type of person who would’ve been a bad partner in the past.[00:13:57] Simone Collins: Well, Performative Bafflement proceeds to present a flowchart showing total marriages, and then they split off 42% divorce, and then of the active marriage pool, we have 20-year successes.[00:14:09] That’s 18% of all relationships. We’re almost coming up on 11, Malcolm, so we’re getting there. And then net miserable and/or dead bedroom, 40% of all relationships. And there’s some weird, like, extra thing in it. Eh, who cares? Whatever. Over only 20 years, only approximately 18% of marriages are actually still happy and sexually active.[00:14:32] All the rest are divorced or net miserable/dead bedroom, and I don’t think if you’re PMC, you’re immune. So I’ve just ignored the obesity effects on this chart because that’s apparently almost every American’s fate, and nobody cares about this. At least not enough to do anything about it. This view is a simplification.[00:14:48] Obviously, a lot of the divorces were dead bedrooms or miserable before divorce, and this caused the divorce, and obviously people trickle into the net miserable column at increasing rates over time. But this is genuinely what all the data tells us over 20 years, and there’s a good reason to think that GSS is optimistic on both the dead bedroom and the happy marriage front.[00:15:06] So every woman opting out of mes- marriage at a higher, in higher rates, super smart. Definitely the right move. If you track empirical outcomes, that’s definitely the best, the w- the... Wait a second. But she’s not looking at the counterfactual. She’s not looking at, like, the mental health rates of women who never get married.[00:15:22] Malcolm Collins: Yeah.[00:15:22] Simone Collins: We’re only looking at married couples. And, look, a lot of women who end up divorced get, like, alimony and more financial security because of the divorce. Anyway she continues. I’m just go- we, we’re just assuming Performative Baffle- Bafflement is a woman, not really knowing the background. And as an aside, I think this kind of a, is kind of an amazing demonstration of the wisdom of crowds and invisible hands at work.[00:15:43] Basically, nobody knows these numbers. All anyone can do is look around at the relationships around them and judge their quality and outcomes. It is an exceptionally noisy information channel that’s highly selected and skewed for everyone. And even with all that noise, even with literally zero idea of the statistical ground [00:16:00] truths, women in the aggregate have still arrived at a better, closer to the truth answer in each subsequent decision round over 80 years of cumulative decisions.[00:16:09] That’s amazing. And before everyone here jumps-[00:16:12] Malcolm Collins: Closer to the truth? She’s arguing that no one should get married or reproduce. I think so. Functionally[00:16:17] Simone Collins: speaking. Yeah, I think, yeah. I, I’m getting some anti-natalism in here.[00:16:20] Malcolm Collins: Like, no, it’s, it’s like what’s even the point of fixing this if sometimes marriage is bad?[00:16:25] Right? Like- ... what?[00:16:28] Simone Collins: Well, and sometimes being single is bad, but she’s not talking about that, is she?[00:16:31] Malcolm Collins: And before- I, I’ve never seen two decent people in a bad marriage[00:16:36] Simone Collins: I have. I have. My, my best friend in childhood her, her parents were perfect, and I thought they were the perfect marriage. And The dynamic broke at one point when the wife was given the job opportunity of a lifetime.[00:16:53] They moved across country, and the husband went a long time without working, and it just killed the family’s dynamic ‘cause he no longer felt like the provider. He became the stay-at-home dad, and that, he, his identity wasn’t ready for that. Mm. And then they both ended up with other partners, and they’re happy now.[00:17:08] But, like, there are things that have nothing to do with the two individuals who can be incredibly... These people were, like, smart and good-looking and insanely tall. Like, they were both over six feet. And-[00:17:20] Malcolm Collins: Oh, that doesn’t really make sense to me. So what, he cheated on her? What do you mean they both ended up with other part...[00:17:24] Because presumably it’s gonna be harder for him to get his job back or get another partner after this I think he may have[00:17:29] Simone Collins: cheated. I think he may have cheated on her. Mm ... which, I mean, if she was, like, gone a lot for work, but I don’t know. ‘Cause I don’t, I was a kid, you know, when sh- when sh- my friend was going through all this.[00:17:37] Yeah. And it was, it was rough, you know? But it was, it was amicable, but every- b- and these are, like, two very good people. It just didn’t work out. And that, like, devastated me. I was like, “Oh my God.” Well, I- “Like, if they can’t make it work” ... I, I[00:17:48] Malcolm Collins: don’t know about that. I don’t know. But you continue.[00:17:50] Simone Collins: Anyway, look, I’m just saying, very decent, smart, wonderful people.[00:17:53] I feel like, you know... It, it all worked out in the end, so I’m happy. Anyway she, Performative Bafflement continues, “And before anyone here jumps in and tries to argue that their spouse is Mother Teresa and Sydney Sweeney combined and was recently elected- Mine is ... best and also hottest human being who has ever or will ever exist.[00:18:12] Yes, I’m not talking about you and me, friends. We all know my readers are notable exceptions whose spouse is descended from heaven on gossamer wings, and whose very presence inspires the involuntary outbursts of angelic hymns and paroxysms of joy.” Mine[00:18:27] Malcolm Collins: does, though. You do have a- That’s the problem, Simone[00:18:28] Simone Collins: Mine does, too.[00:18:29] I know. I’m, I’m the one woman who made it. “I’m talking about everyone else,” says Performative Bafflement. “Those who are far less fortunate than we. You know the ones I mean. You see the quality of your friends’ and relatives’ and coworkers’ marriages. As is usually the case with revealed preferences-” No, I, I do see the f-[00:18:46] this can imply huge effect sizes in the background”[00:18:47] Malcolm Collins: I do see the quality, and it’s high quality. I, I do see the quality. In my generation, it’s high quality. Th- this idea that, like, if you look around, all this can tell me is this person is in some sort of circle where everyone’s miserable. And I can only guess it’s all progressives or something.[00:19:01] Simone Collins: I guess, yeah. I mean, I’m, I’m even, like, thinking it, a- as far as I can work it in, in my head, even with people who have m- I would say very imperfect marriages, they’re all just due to imperfections they have as people which they would experience perhaps in a more magnified fashion if they lived independently.[00:19:20] But again, something that I wasn’t considering at this point in the piece because I hadn’t gotten to the end argument, which does help think this for me, is the people we surround ourselves with, e.g., Simone and I surround ourselves with, are exceptional people. I don’t like to talk to people who I do not think are exceptionally competent or exceptionally contributory to the future of humanity.[00:19:42] And it is that type of person, when they end up in a marriage, that they have a good marriage. , It is the type of person who lives the life for whatever, as you’re about to hear, that even when they are otherwise good people, have toxic marriages[00:19:58] Simone Collins: And- Yeah ... the great thing is that a [00:20:00] lot of people’s vices can be moderated-[00:20:04] Malcolm Collins: Well, this is the whole thing. If you were purpose in life is to make humanity better and to contribute to humanity’s continued flourishing in the future, e.g. the next generation, one of the most important things you can do but by far I mean, unless you’re gonna cure cancer or something, which you’re probably not, okay?[00:20:24] Is have a lot of kids and raise them well, right? Especially with this being a crisis that humanity is going through right now. And the fact that you wouldn’t even try to do like one of the... It’s like, you know, you’re on, a spaceship and the, life support’s dying and somebody’s like, “Well, you know, I, I don’t really see the point in trying to fix the life support,” it sometimes shocks you.[00:20:49] It’s like, what are you talking about? It’s the only option. I haven’t heard you present a secondary option here.[00:20:57] Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah. We’ll, we’ll continue then. We’ll see. The argument’s only warming up. There’s a lot more. Marriage is a bad idea even from a purely theoretical point of view. On top of the base rates indicating that it’s a bad idea empirically, the whole idea of being able to accurately predict how people are going to evolve or change over 20 to 70 years is silly to begin with, and 20 years is pretty much the minimum you have to consider if you want to have kids with that person.[00:21:23] How much have you changed versus you 20 years ago? Why wouldn’t you expect your spouse to change that much and you to change that much in the next 20 to 70 years? I promise the great majority of everyone in that 82% were in love when they got married and didn’t think they’d get divorced or be miserable.[00:21:39] See, this is why you have to grow together as a couple and not grow apart. Like, that, that’s, this is easy to head off, so I’m just gonna skip to the next section because you just grow together and not apart. That, that, that’s something you can solve. Next section. Good marriages are heaven and bad marriages are hell.[00:21:54] Here I’ll point out that a good relationship is one of the best things on earth and a bad relationship is one of the worst things on earth. Being single is much better than being in a bad relationship. Okay, I’m gonna skip through this section too because we agree.[00:22:06] Malcolm Collins: Well, yeah, but the- That[00:22:08] Simone Collins: means you should just leave the relationship[00:22:09] Malcolm Collins: and get a good one[00:22:09] Being married is much better than being single.[00:22:11] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:22:12] Malcolm Collins: Being in a good marriage is- So[00:22:15] Simone Collins: if you’re in a bad marriage, leave it,[00:22:17] Malcolm Collins: right? Vet the person, learn about the person, grow together, get married young. What... Like, the advice is just so easy to get around.[00:22:27] Simone Collins: Yeah. What this cashes out to, Performative Bafflement writes, as soon as no-fault divorce opened up in the late ‘60s, divorces surged and that was a good thing.[00:22:37] It was millions of soul-crushing relationships suddenly being able to be dissolved.[00:22:40] Malcolm Collins: No, it was millions of relationships becoming soul-crushing because people got other options.[00:22:45] Simone Collins: Mm.[00:22:46] Malcolm Collins: This, there were bad relationships before this, but I can guarantee you they were probably at about a third the rate.[00:22:53] Simone Collins: Maybe, yeah[00:22:55] Malcolm Collins: Im- when you, when you create a norm around leaving a relationship or a motivation to leave a relationship or look for flaws in your partner instead of trying to make it work, this is why arranged marriages have higher love rates or equal love rates, but when you c- count survivorship bias, higher love rates than non-arranged marriages.[00:23:11] Mm.[00:23:11] Simone Collins: So no-fault divorce created the first FOMO or a dangerous new form of FOMO And it caused a bunch of people to become miserable when they could- they did not need to be, or would not have been.[00:23:23] Malcolm Collins: Yeah.[00:23:24] Simone Collins: Okay, next section then we’ll skip to. Is this women getting all uppity? So lots of guys think this is a female selectivity problem.[00:23:31] Indeed, if you do the math, approximately 80% of women are opting out of marriage at the bottom quint- quintile of male SES, and nearly two-thirds are opting out of the medians and below. Marriage is increasingly a luxury good. The top quintile of SES men still have 85 to 90% marriage rates just like all men in the ‘40s.[00:23:51] Oh, that’s interesting. And look again, look at the ground truth. This is just women being actually smart and reacting to actually huge effect sizes. What’s the percent of [00:24:00] marriages that make it and were retroactively actually worth entering? Roughly 20%. Boy, if I were making that bet, I’d sure try to only do it with the top quintile of people.[00:24:12] Uh-oh, Malcolm. You’re top quintile.[00:24:16] Malcolm Collins: I, I am top quintile, I’ll say that.[00:24:18] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:24:19] Malcolm Collins: But, you know, I could just get a, I could just get a, as you’ve said in the past, I should just get a harem. So I’ll get a few more wives and-[00:24:24] Simone Collins: Right. But you know, we know from that, like, one, one bit of research on African what’s the word?[00:24:31] Poly- polygynous marriages, that the more wives a man has, his value gets moderated down. True. Because the wife considering choosing him as a husband has to understand that you now have to divide his assets by the number of wives, plus a little bit more of, of a discount because there’s the uncertainty of knowing y- you may fall out of favor.[00:24:53] So he’s not as certain of a bet as a man of more moderate income who you know will not be further diluting it with additional wives. ‘Cause keep in mind, what, what if you’re like wife number three for, like, millionaire man? But you don’t know how many more wives he might convince to get. Those economies have got, about to get gnarly, right?[00:25:14] So you’re gonna get, I think, fairly low-quality w- women, unless you’re super- Mm ... super high value or they’re very insensitive. Now, I think it’s different with things like sister wives, right? Because in a sense, in, it seems like in many cases, sister wives actually choose each other, and the husband’s just like, “Ugh, okay.”[00:25:31] Whereas they’re like, “Look, I need another woman around the house.” I, you know, and it’s like, not... You know what I mean? That, that’s kind of a dynamic at play. So I’m not talking about those k- types of marriages. Anyway blah, blah, blah. Okay, so basically she’s saying that, like, it only makes sense for women to marry the, the high-value men.[00:25:49] Next section. Let’s put any returns to bed for good. Of course, returns spent with a, spelled with a V, which you’ve noticed is a whole thing, right?[00:25:58] Malcolm Collins: Returns spelled with a-[00:26:00] Simone Collins: With a V. You’ve not... Are you... Really?[00:26:02] Malcolm Collins: I don’t know what you’re talking about.[00:26:04] Simone Collins: There’s this whole- how do I best describe it? Guys, how do I describe this to Malcolm?[00:26:11] This, like, go back to Roman times. It’s like the... It’s supposed to be so... It’s like trying to be highbrow Bronze Age pervert, and you start some, like, men’s association called RETVRN and it’s, it’s all about going back to traditional Christian values. This rings no bell? You’ve not seen any of this?[00:26:33] Malcolm Collins: I have no idea what you’re talking about.[00:26:33] Oh, my[00:26:34] Simone Collins: God. Anyway, I’m gonna read. I will read. And this is largely why some of these men are the biggest proponents of returning to a regime where women are locked out of jobs and bank accounts, and are stuck barefoot and pregnant in kitchens, shackled to duds. It’s seemingly the only way they see actually marrying women in nowadays, given the high ever-growing opt-out rates.[00:26:55] Clearly- She’s[00:26:55] Malcolm Collins: not offering an alternative. Like, we’re literally- Yeah, let’s see ... talking about an end to human civilization. Blah,[00:26:59] Simone Collins: blah, blah. Okay, so yeah, manosphere rejected. No returv- returvning. Case study: what can a median woman get from marrying the median man? Okay, so prospectively, the median woman can get a snag, an, or, expect to snag a median man.[00:27:14] The median man is short and obese, only has a high school degree, and makes approximately 50K a year. That can barely buy you groceries, much less a house anywhere. Oh, also when it comes to sex, a median Ejaculatory latency time is nine minutes. Nine minutes. So every week or so you’ll get nine minutes of awful sex that approximately zero women could get off to.[00:27:34] Man, sounds great. I can see why average women are just busting down the doors for median men to get married.[00:27:40] Malcolm Collins: That’s really the average time?[00:27:42] Simone Collins: I mean, that sounds bad, right? I don’t want that.[00:27:45] Malcolm Collins: I, I think you- You want that? I think you’d prefer that.[00:27:49] Simone Collins: Oh, you mean short and quick. Well, Malcolm, we have things to do.[00:27:52] Yes, no, the, but not a... I mean, every, I think[00:27:56] Malcolm Collins: every[00:27:56] Simone Collins: couple-[00:27:56] Malcolm Collins: If I, I’m honest, I would probably prefer that to be my [00:28:00] time than-[00:28:00] Simone Collins: Men prefer cookies more than... You, you under- we’re not gonna get into-[00:28:06] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, we’re not gonna get into it, but, like, yeah, that is,[00:28:09] Simone Collins: Women tend to prefer longer sexual periods ...[00:28:11] Malcolm Collins: I hear that and I’m like, that sounds very efficient.[00:28:13] Maybe this is actually why- Right,[00:28:14] Simone Collins: because the way that men experience sexual pleasure works a little differently from the way that women experience sexual pleasure, right? Like-[00:28:20] Malcolm Collins: Actually, this might be why we have such an extreme stance on, like, it, how do, how are people having kids when they when they’re, like, naturally, when, when they have a bunch of kids already.[00:28:30] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:28:30] Malcolm Collins: We’re like, “When are you, how do you people have active sex lives?” And now that I’m hearing that the average time for a guy to come is nine minutes, I’m like, that’s how you have a- that’s how you have sex lives and kids.[00:28:40] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:28:41] Malcolm Collins: You know? Yeah,[00:28:41] Simone Collins: you think the kids are gonna leave you alone for longer than 10 minutes?[00:28:44] I mean, this is, this[00:28:44] Malcolm Collins: is- Yeah, we, yeah. When I’m like, I just don’t understand how it’s, like, plausible that you’re having sex and a bunch of kids.[00:28:51] Simone Collins: Yeah.[00:28:52] Malcolm Collins: Okay, I get it now.[00:28:53] Simone Collins: Yeah, 10 minutes, 10 minutes makes sense.[00:28:55] Speaker 6: Note here, this is part of the broader conversation that we have, which is I don’t get these people who are like, “I’m parents with, like, five kids, four kids, and we still have a healthy and active sexual relationship.” , Because this guy acts like a dead bedroom is, like, the worst thing in the world, and it’s like, no, I thought it was a natural part of having a ton of kids around the house and needing to hire a babysitter to be a, basically a prostitute by proxy, because that’s the only way you get to have sex.[00:29:25] Because God knows I’m not gonna have sex while a little baby is watching me, and I’m not gonna leave my baby outside the room for over an hour, , while I’m just pleasuring myself and my wife, right? You know, like, that’s gross, right? Like, the baby starts crying or something. What a horrifying thing.[00:29:43] And everyone’s like, “Oh, no, it’s so easy.” And I’m like, “Oh, because it only took nine minutes for you. That makes sense.”[00:29:48] Simone Collins: Anyway, blah, blah, blah. So she’s basically saying that marrying a mid man is kinda dire looking from the, the w- woman’s perspective, I mean, I can continue.[00:30:01] Man, sounds great, blah, blah, blah. Another triangulation point. Fully 35% of women lack interest in sex at all, and can you blame them? And around... Wow, so 35% of women are asexual, basically. I mean, that makes sense. It’s like all, all of, me and all of my friends in high school. And around 50% have at least one noticeable problem with the quality of sex they’re getting.[00:30:20] Want more context and flavor? Check here for actual comments from lots of women. It’s pretty clear that having approximately any job and pets and Netflix, and you own a place, is roughly 10X better than marrying the median man, who in addition to subjecting you to nine minutes of terrible sex every week, will want you to do his laundry and dishes and cook for him, and spend all your free time raising his awful kids.[00:30:39] Well, if you don’t like him, yeah, they’re awful kids. While also working full time because he can’t afford anything and needs your income for your, for you two to even survive. I wrote a whole article on why women have a raw deal in general, and this section comes from here. Click, click there for a more complete case.[00:30:57] All right, I’ll just... That’s its own article[00:30:59] Malcolm Collins: then. I’m not hearing the alternative.[00:31:00] Simone Collins: Yeah, okay, let’s see. All the positive effects of marriage are driven by selection effects anyway. Okay, this is still not a solution. How about health? Okay, that’s not a solution. It’s looking at long... The relationship between physical health and marriage was completely explained by ran- non-random selection.[00:31:15] Okay, so she’s saying marriage is not gonna make your health better. How about income? She cites some research. The results show that married men earn more because selection into marriage operates not only on wage levels, but also on wage growth, hence men on a steep career track are especially likely to marry.[00:31:30] We conclude that arguments postulating a wage premium for married men should be discarded. Okay how about happiness? Okay, she’s r- certainly gonna cite studies that show marriage doesn’t make you happy. This is why marriage is a luxury good now. The only people worth marrying are at the top quintile of pe- people, basically.[00:31:45] I feel like a hypocrite, because you’re like top 1%, pro- probably- True ... like top .01%.[00:31:50] Malcolm Collins: It’s true. I am one of the best living humans. Th- this is like an objective thing that anyone can-[00:31:54] Simone Collins: It is, though. That, that, that does, it, yeah. So like who are we to say, right? Like maybe- [00:32:00][00:32:00] Malcolm Collins: You are too, though, Simone, if I’m gonna be[00:32:02] Simone Collins: honest.[00:32:02] Nah. For, for you specifically, right, I’m, I’m the right kind of person. And we, we’re really lucky to find each other. But I’m trying to find the solution. This is immoral and bad. I’ll make this horrible suggestion for any proposal that is basically suggesting to create decades of misery. Okay, so basically marriage is immoral and bad because marriage sucks and people suck, blah, blah, blah.[00:32:19] Okay, so that’s your, that’s the argument. But, but we need more taxpayers. Next section. Maybe this is finally gonna be it. Come on performative bafflement, you might say. Look around you. Dependency ratios, the big problem. Oh, dependency ratios. You made that one.[00:32:33] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, d- I’m the one who popularized dependency ratios.[00:32:36] Simone Collins: You did. People, you- And[00:32:38] Malcolm Collins: I don’t even care about more taxpayers anymore now that we have AI. I’m just like, you know, we will replace you. That’s the goal at this point. We’ve gotta replace the existing population that thinks like this. Well,[00:32:46] Simone Collins: dependency sorry performative bafflement is, is humoring you here.[00:32:50] The big problem South Korea, and Japan, and China are headed in for is infinite ever-growing array of old people tiling,[00:32:58] tiling the sky to the horizon like octogenarian celestial vampires draining the economic and cultural life force out of their kids and grandkids as each kid has to support a greater number of sky vampires. Oh, that’s good. Performative bafflement, that’s good. That’s going to suck for them. Their entire economy is going to grind to a halt, and everyone is going to hate their lives.[00:33:18] And in the developing world, we’re all on the same train. They’re just getting to the station first, so that’s ours and our kids’ fates too. This big Ponzi scheme we like to call the American economy isn’t just going to make it without a bunch of kids cranked out en masse to keep the wheels spinning, right?[00:33:35] Well, friends, I’ve got news for hear you, for you here too. The median taxpayer isn’t. This is to say, no matter how you do the math, you do not approach the net neutral in taxes paid versus consumed unless you are in the top 10% of income for 40 plus years. Oh. Interesting argument here. So only the rich people have to get married[00:33:54] Malcolm Collins: Okay, I buy this.[00:33:56] Yeah, let’s get rid of- Sterilize all- ... the average person. Ster- and Leaflet has said this as well, that we should offer money- Yes ... for people to sterilize themselves. Yeah. Let’s move to le- what do we call this? Twist. Like, dark pronatalism?[00:34:07] Simone Collins: Twist.[00:34:08] Speaker 5: And if your question within dark pronatalism is, well then who’s worthy? Who should be having kids? It’s the people who are willing to make that sacrifice. That’s who decides. The people willing to make the sacrifice for the future. It’s you. It’s the individual who gets to decide, who gets to either find or not find a partner, who, , gets to make a good life for that partner, a good enough life that they want to have lots of kids[00:34:33] Simone Collins: Elitist pronatalism. We’ve always been accused of elitism.[00:34:36] You know, oh, the Collinses, they want people to have kids, but only the right people. And they want everyone to think that we’re like white people or like, Christian people, but we’re like, no, just like competent, happy people.[00:34:48] Malcolm Collins: Yeah. So yeah, the com- if competent- And then taxpayers- ... happy people is this like rare, impossible thing.[00:34:55] Simone Collins: I will, I will continue, ‘cause we’re gonna have to get the kids real soon. Let’s just show this at a super high level. Only about half of Americans work. The rest are kids, retirees, and layabouts. So you’ve got 170 million workers. We spend 7 trillion a year, mostly on old people entitlements, from 52 to 69%, depending on where you account for national debt and interest and some other stuff.[00:35:15] I like round numbers, so let’s lazily call it 4.5 trillion for entitlements and 2.5 trillion for everything else. How much is 7 trillion over 150 million? It’s 40K in taxes paid per worker. You don’t hit that amount of taxes paid until you are top 5% of income, or 250K plus or so. But people pay dollars in payroll taxes every paycheck.[00:35:39] Yeah, sure, it doesn’t matter. The median worker pays 6 to 7K in federal taxes, including all those, and the mean is around 10 to 12K. Still way shy of 40K. I mean, even if you literally take out entitlements entirely, just that 2.5 trillion across all the workers, it’s like 15K a year.[00:35:56] The[00:35:56] Malcolm Collins: overwhelming- Because it’s highly heritable whether or not your [00:36:00] kids are going to pay into the s- system as[00:36:01] Simone Collins: well. Yeah, but I, I, this is an, this is an int- yeah, th- th- anyway, I’ll, I’ll skip around. Performative Bafflement says, “I’m not disparaging average people here who are genuinely paying a big chunk of their income in taxes.[00:36:11] I’m disparaging our maximally stupid government spending and policies, and pointing out that there’s literally no way it can go like this, go on like this with the sky vampires hit.” The sky vampires, I really like that. If we’re always and forever spending 6X more than we make per person, adding more people isn’t going to help.[00:36:28] We’re still... We do our system in the maximally stupid way, and as an example, taking the widow’s mite of taxes, 1K back then, in 1970s dollars, immediately spend it, then basically promise the person who paid those taxes in piddling 1970s dollars we’ll spend 40K per year on them in present day dollars when they’re old, which we’re doing.[00:36:46] Yes, that’s so true. I hate that. Versus if you were smart. Hi, Singapore. You’d put those 1970s dollars into some financial instrument that also grew with time, so by the time they were old, their money had grown and to offset some of that gap. Oh, and we also take on huge amounts of debt every year in a tiny 1970 dollar equivalence so that we hit both ways by that.[00:37:05] None of the positive contributions grow, but the debt grows with time. So today’s figure, if we actually get to paying off that debt, would mean more like 60K per year, but obviously we’re not paying it off. We’re racking it up, still more debt every year. I-[00:37:19] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, I agree with this. Dark pronatalism. We, we should do a full episode- Dark pronatalism[00:37:24] where we go hard into the concept of dark pronatalism. ‘Cause it’s been the direction I’ve been moving in terms of like the populations you can actually affect, who actually matters, who we actually wanna have kids. And like yeah, dark pronatalism. I, I care that you plan to be a productive citizen, you want to be a productive citizen, and that means you’re gonna have productive children.[00:37:43] Simone Collins: Yeah, and Performative Bafflement, after making that whole tax argument, which I think we all understand now, points out that like if you like kids, you’d want them to be raised in a loving, functional, high socioeconomic status household with two parents because they will be better off, right? Like they have better everything and they want the kids and can raise them well.[00:38:02] And that’s pretty much the ending. Wow I like the alternative. Yeah, should have, should have left it at that. What a twist, huh? I like the alternative. That was, that was great. I mean, I’m not... I don’t, I didn’t get permission from the person who sent this, but good send. Yeah. I mean, we went into this blind.[00:38:15] I only had heard of... I, I think someone sent me one Performative Bafflement article before. I don’t know who they are. We still don’t know who they are. We like to judge people based on their ideas, and at first we were like, “Okay, this is whiny.” But also, oh my God, you’re right. Marriage does suck for most people who also just suck.[00:38:29] For...[00:38:29] Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, not for most people, for below average people.[00:38:34] Simone Collins: Okay, that’s like half of people.[00:38:36] Malcolm Collins: Yeah, but the point is, is that we can get rid of the bo- below average people.[00:38:39] Simone Collins: We’re not get... No, look, mm, look, we will let them do what they want, and that[00:38:44] Malcolm Collins: will mean- Lime and Stone can lead light pronatalism where they wanna help the Somalis have more kids and the, the random, you know, the freaking the homeless people who keep getting pregnant accidentally.[00:38:57] And we can run dark pronatalism[00:39:00] Simone Collins: You heard it here, folks.[00:39:01] Speaker 2: It’s sad to be able to appreciate part of the take and then see that after Simone stopped, it gets, ends on the most mind-bendingly stupid take I’ve ever heard, , which is fertility isn’t actually a problem for another 100 plus years. Even if the entire world fertility drops to 1.85 for the next 100 years, we’re going to have 9 billion people through 2125.[00:39:25] The low bar here requires it dropping to 1.5 around the world, , blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. , Fertility isn’t actually a problem for another 100 to 200 years. and, and in these like, and by the time it actually becomes a problem, we’ll have fully automated luxury gay space communism as the meme goes.[00:39:40] , What’s so funny here,[00:39:41] , in this very piece, he seems acutely aware that the vast majority, like one human is not equal to another human in terms of technological progress, in terms of economic involvement, in terms of economic progress. , And if we look at dropping [00:40:00] populations, like if the dropping population is primarily in this one group that’s paying all the taxes, globally speaking, that’s really, really bad for civilization, right?[00:40:16] Like I hate to say it, but if you look at like global birth rates and you’re trying to act like everyone’s gonna be equally likely to be economically productive and you’re just like, “Okay, well, where do we have good birth rates? Oh, like Somalia?” Do, do you really think that they’re going to be the next-- Collectively, I’m not saying any indivi- any individual Somalian can do great.[00:40:39] I’m just talking like averages and math here. That all of a sudden they’re gonna become this super economically productive region, , or, , be as economically productive as San Francisco? Come on, man. Stop being stupid. Like that’s just intentionally stupid[00:40:52] Simone Collins: Well, wow. I mean, yeah, I, I like that it’s always really fun when something fundamentally changes our view of something, and we already had a sort of shifting view of pronatalism because of the way we look at AI and, and how AI can potentially change this.[00:41:06] But totally valid point about taxpayers, and that like... Well, I mean, we’ve, we’ve also pointed that out, though, that like we don’t want net tax drains, which is why immigration’s not a solution and why you know, trying to push really low-income families to have more kids is, is not gonna solve the problem.[00:41:20] It will exacerbate it, as much as we w- welcome anyone who wants to have kids to have kids. ‘Cause also, like, why, why do you wanna pay taxes for the sky vampires? I also hear that. But inter- yes, so I, I’m gonna have to think about this. Thank you. All right. Well, I love you, Malcolm. I’m gonna go get the kids and make you crispy chili oil and garlic green beans with bun cha.[00:41:41] I love you. Bye.[00:41:42] Malcolm Collins: I love you, too. Bye.[00:41:43] Titan: One more time. One more time?[00:41:43] One more time. Oh.[00:41:44] Simone: No, you can’t be[00:41:47] Titan: in there. That’s mine.[00:41:47] Simone: I think if you guys use it again, I’ll just know[00:41:51] Titan: y- I was[00:41:51] Simone: choosing, I had to choose that. But then I would look there again ‘cause you just hid there. It’s mine.[00:41:59] Well, I think you’ll find one. I believe in you, Octavian. I really do. Indy, do you think Octavian’s a good hider?[00:42:06] Titan: Now count to 14. Count to 14.[00:42:10] Simone: Yes, exactly. To 3,100?[00:42:13] Titan: No.[00:42:13] Simone: Boy, that’s gonna be a long time.[00:42:15] Titan: 30 or 100.[00:42:16] Simone: 30 or 100? Okay. Ready? I’m gonna go. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven , eight, nine, 10,[00:42:30] 11, . Ready or not, here I come. Indy, where is everyone? Really?[00:42:46] What is happening? Why is that box moving, Indy? Why is it moving?[00:42:51] Titan: Oh my[00:42:53] Simone: God. It’s moving again. I’m so scared. What should I do, Indy?[00:43:03] It’s okay. I’m not really scared. It’s, it’s getting closer. I think I need to ... Oh, no Titan! It was you the whole time. Yeah. Wow, you’re very good at hiding. Do you know where Octavian is?[00:43:25] Well, I need to go inside and make dinner for everyone, okay?[00:43:28] Titan: Well-[00:43:28] Simone: Would you like to help me?[00:43:33] Uh, okay, just be careful, love. This is not a box with holes in it and you need air. So maybe just a loose covering, yeah? Okay, that’s fine. Good. Okay. You just, uh... I’m gonna find Octavian.[00:43:48] I’m not gonna tell the tooth fairy. Are you gonna keep[00:43:49] Titan: it? Um, if it is shiny.[00:43:52] Simone: I thought you wanted to keep it if it’s shiny.[00:43:54] Titan: Yes.[00:43:56] Simone: Okay. All right. I’m gonna go make dinner. I love [00:44:00] you. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit basedcamppodcast.substack.com/subscribe