$VEON trades like a busted emerging-markets telecom, but it owns 84% of Ukraine's Kyivstar and a Pakistani fintech, JazzCash, that already moves 15% of the country's GDP. Samit Umatiya of UIG Funds lays out the sum-of-the-parts case for why the holdco could be worth roughly 4x today's price, and Andrew pushes back hard the whole way: a not-so-storied history of value destruction, a sanctioned 45% shareholder, capital controls, and a long graveyard of telecoms that bungled every growth opportunity they ever had. The result is one long push and pull on whether the upside is real this time.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Fiscal.ai is a modern financial data provider for global equities, with a web terminal plus a self-serve API that plugs real-time fundamentals straight into Claude and ChatGPT. Andrew uses it himself. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 The setup: a sum-of-the-parts EM telecom nobody talks about01:31 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai02:35 Who is Samit Umatiya and what is VEON04:19 Vimpelcom to VEON: the history and the Russia exit08:14 Why is the market asleep on this name?11:31 The sum of the parts: Kyivstar plus four frontier markets13:59 Bridging the EV gap: Andrew's $8B vs the bull's $3B holdco16:36 Valuing a telecom on revenue: the "it's a tech company" case17:54 JazzCash: 15% of Pakistan's GDP, never independently valued21:00 The bridge to ~$1B of free cash flow and a 4x23:40 Organic vs. bolt-on digital growth24:34 Capital controls and getting cash out of the op-cos27:11 What the market is missing: demographics and under-penetration31:09 Starlink: competitor or partner in Ukraine's rebuild?35:31 Digital stickiness and retention37:42 The Kaspi problem: a dominant super app that never re-rated39:25 The AI 1440 strategy and a sovereign-AI moat42:31 Is telecom just structurally bad at capturing growth?45:11 Capital allocation and the next catalyst: a JazzCash spin49:38 The elephant in the room: LetterOne's sanctioned 45% stake54:05 Geopolitical turmoil as a feature, not a flaw55:24 Is that 45% block actually an opportunity?57:09 Founder DNA, CEO Kaan Terzioglu, and the spin-off playbook1:01:56 WrapUIG Funds (Samit Umatiya) - https://uigfunds.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

MSA Safety ($MSA) is the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety: a century-old, pure-play maker of gas detection and firefighter equipment that the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalist team argues is a quality compounder the market is underrating. The bull case has three legs. Portable gas detection is shifting to a recurring, higher-margin subscription model, the "canary" that now sings to the whole worksite instead of just the worker wearing it. A legally mandated SCBA replacement cycle is coming that consensus barely credits. And a 2023 divestiture of product liabilities freed up the roughly 17% of EBIT that used to leave the building every year at a zero return. Base case: a double to about $350 by 2030 from roughly $160 today.EJ Karobath, Craig Larkin and Bob McGrane walk through why MSA's owned-sensor hardware is hard to copy (Blackline got taken private, and its devices break if you drop them), how winning a tier-one fire department like LA or Memphis pulls the surrounding towns along on interoperability, and why 50-plus years of dividend growth and a record $500 million buyback point to real capital-allocation discipline. I push back on the obvious tension: this is a roughly 20x compounder that does not scream alpha, the CFO is guiding mid-single-digit growth, and most of the thesis only pays off in 2028 to 2030. Is the market that inefficient, or is this just a very good business priced about right?Team MSA's pitch deck is linked here: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gv1oj18pawqrmeq7lai4j/MSA-Pershing-Square-Challenge-vYAVP.pdf?rlkey=8l5vkpkr7r26oi0k7wx5fcf0h&st=g4ow2fxo&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata: trata.com. Trata is recorded, anonymized conversations between two buysiders who actually follow the same company, about an hour each, with a full transcript. When you are getting up to speed on a name, there is nothing like hearing two people who research it talk it through. Check them out at trata.com.Chapters:00:00 A quality compounder hiding at a market multiple01:24 Sponsor: Trata02:47 Meet Team MSA: EJ, Craig and Bob05:50 Why they picked MSA: an underfollowed, simple business07:50 What MSA is: the "OG pick and shovel" of worker safety10:24 The three segments, and why detection leads11:51 Fixed vs portable gas detection13:15 The subscription shift: the canary that sings to the whole worksite16:40 The moat: durability, owned sensors and a long replacement runway17:21 Market share, and why Blackline got taken private21:32 Fire safety: the G1 and the mandated SCBA replacement cycle23:38 Valuation: a double to ~$350 by 2030, and the reverse DCF25:43 My pushback: a 20x compounder that doesn't scream alpha27:00 Why management sandbags the connected and SCBA upside28:46 A stock for the patient: the J-curve and the long horizon31:47 Primary research: site visits, IR access and r/firefighting36:18 Becoming a tech company: 40% of engineers now in software38:10 The tier-one halo: win LA or Memphis, win the region42:08 Capital allocation: the liability divestiture, dividends and a $500M buyback44:13 Wrap: where to find the team and the deckTeam MSA (Columbia Business School): pitch deck linked aboveLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Fox's stock is down about 25% since it agreed to buy Roku for $22 billion, and the market has decided the deal is a blunder. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong. His case: Roku controls roughly 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, about 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the "front door" to streaming and around 100 million connected TVs in North America. Look under the surface and the deal is closer to 16-17x free cash flow once you account for Roku's barely-tapped ad levers and synergies.We get into the homepage that became the new "Netflix homepage," why Fox keeps making the smartest M&A bets in media, the Tubi sleeper Simeon is most bullish on, why he loves Roku but is bearish on Spotify, and why Google and Meta look like "true value stocks" to him. I push back hard on whether Fox plus Roku is really better than Roku staying neutral Switzerland for every bidder.See Simeon's post on Fox / Roku here: https://www.accruedint.com/p/the-strait-of-roku-how-fox-seizedThis episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's telling you which tools actually give you an edge. I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process.Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's coming: Fox-Roku, plus Spotify, Google and Meta01:08 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense02:24 Guest intro: Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest03:05 The Fox-Roku deal and why Simeon thinks it makes sense05:30 Roku as the "Strait of Hormuz" of streaming (44% of viewing)06:25 Why Fox has the smartest M&A team in media07:55 Buying the "front door": ~100M connected TVs10:03 The Roku homepage as the new "Netflix homepage"13:44 The ad-sales levers hiding under the multiple16:31 Valuation: 22x EBITDA, ~16-17x free cash flow with synergies18:01 My pushback: Fox down 25%, winner's curse, thin synergies19:35 The real risk of staying pure-play (Viacom, Paramount)24:51 Rebundling and why everyone's partnered up by 202826:08 Is Fox+Roku actually better, or could anyone have bought this?28:01 Cord-cutting, YouTube TV, and the Disney bloody nose32:07 The Fox bet Simeon likes most: Tubi38:30 Why now? The 50% streaming inflection and a shrinking buyer pool42:21 Does AI slop break or boost the distribution thesis?48:06 The gotcha: bullish Roku, bearish Spotify (the Pokemon theory of media)52:22 Google and Meta as "true value stocks"56:55 The complexity discount, Meta's enterprise tools, and founder control59:13 Wrap and where to find Accrued InterestSimeon McMillan / Accrued Interest: https://accruedinterest.substack.comLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

SpaceX is buying Cursor for ~$60B, and one of the early backers was SBF. So was a convicted fraudster also the greatest VC of all time? That's where June's random ramblings start. From there: why I've flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier, whether deep subject-matter expertise gets MORE valuable as the world fills with AI slop, why legacy brands (KPMG, CBS, People) might actually gain power in an AI world, why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a tell for underperformance, and the cracks showing up in Polymarket and prediction markets.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense. The AI landscape has never been more crowded or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors, from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools, and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 What's on the menu this month02:05 Sponsor: my AI webinar with AlphaSense03:22 Was SBF the greatest VC of all time? (Cursor, SpaceX, Anthropic)09:48 Do any frauds or blowups hide assets this valuable? (GGP, Enron, EOG)11:42 Why I flipped from AI doom toward AI as a force multiplier13:41 Why AI rewards the creative, and the top 0.1% problem16:18 AI slop and the rising return on deep expertise (Knicks, ABVX)20:12 KPMG's hallucinated AI report and secondhand hallucinations21:57 Does brand get MORE valuable in an AI world? (CBS, People, TMZ, ChatGPT licensing)25:14 Why "my edge is a long time horizon" is usually a lie28:50 Forced selling, diamond hands, and the seven-years-of-underperformance letter32:02 My three-year rule32:53 Polymarket, MicroStrategy, and the limits of the rulebook35:00 Prediction markets are reflexive: why nobody's waging "Polymarket wars" yet37:36 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The market has decided YouGov ($YOU.L) is an AI loser and cut it ~50% in a year. Jonathan Cohen of Zipperline Capital thinks it's an AI winner trading at 6-7x EBITDA, with a 20-year proprietary dataset AI makes more valuable, not less. We spend the first half on the UK as an "emerging market" (corporate governance discounts, why buybacks are finally happening, and why you can never compare UK and US multiples), then go deep on YouGov: the panel, the moat, synthetic data, and why the company is cancelling its dividend to buy back stock.This episode is sponsored by my upcoming AI webinar with AlphaSense.The AI landscape has never been more crowded — or more confusing. Everyone's telling you to adopt AI, but almost nobody's asking the harder question: which tools actually give you an edge?I'm sitting down with Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompt and Ben Collins of AlphaSense to break down the modern AI stack for investors — from horizontal platforms like OpenAI and Claude to agentic workflows and finance-specific intelligence tools — and where each one actually fits in a real research process. If you're trying to build an AI-enabled workflow that sharpens your judgment rather than replacing it, you won't want to miss this.Join us on June 25th - register now: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsChapters:00:00 Why YouGov could be the AI winner the market is misreading02:56 Why Jonathan Cohen runs a UK and Europe small/mid-cap book08:01 Why you can never compare UK and US multiples13:08 What UK analyst coverage actually tells you17:37 The shift toward UK buybacks and capital allocation22:00 The "buybacks kill liquidity" myth25:11 What YouGov really is: a proprietary data business31:19 Inside the panel: why people answer, and why retention is the moat36:52 Why the market thinks YouGov is an AI loser38:19 The bull case: why AI makes YouGov more valuable40:55 Synthetic data, and why it breaks46:28 Trust as a moat in a world of AI slop52:27 Pushback: Chegg, Wix, and the real AI losers56:51 Content businesses vs distribution businesses01:00:14 Music, media, and what compounds through disruption01:05:38 ClosingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsDisclosure: long DCH and NOMDChapters:0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$69:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $1215:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters:00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $10040:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel01:12:10 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.comChapters:00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar01:00 Sponsor: Trata02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID34:21 The air-distribution network effect35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary51:02 Closing thoughtsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small oneLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celhChapters:0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion1:13 Sponsor: Trata2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage43:38 Wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/