Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast Podcast

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

John Norris
In this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Economist, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Portfolio Manager. https://www.oakworth.com/ [email protected]
Turmoil in the Middle East
Last weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world’s leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren’t anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If so, what has caused it and what does it mean if the situation escalates? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the conflict in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip. How does Gen Z feel about it relative to Gen X?
Oct 12, 2023
23 min
How Much Higher Will Rates Go?
Long-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren’t buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is the current mess in Washington. So, just how much higher will rates go before people start gobbling them up? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent increase in interest rates and the political turmoil in Washington. Is there any reason for rates to go down? If not, how much higher will they go?
Oct 5, 2023
23 min
Are EV Dreams a Nightmare?
This week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expanding its EV production without technical assistance from China? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the current state of the EV market in the United States and what changes the Big Three have to make in order to compete without help from the Chinese.
Sep 27, 2023
24 min
How Many Strikes Are In An Out?
The division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss various strikes around the world, but focus on those closer to home. Are the strikers truly bargaining from a position of strength? Does management fully comprehend the future of its various industries?
Sep 21, 2023
23 min
Will Inflation Eat Your Wallet?
Recent sharp increases in energy prices have caused pain at the pump and pushed the inflation gauges higher. Couple this with student loan repayments, and what, then, is the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping season? When things get tight, what gets the ax? Is it travel? The movies? Restaurants? Or is everyone different? Further, what impact would this have on overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Basically, how much will this recent uptick in inflation drive down real economic growth? Should we be worried? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss recent, unexpected increases in inflation and what they could mean for the U.S. economy. Are there generational differences about the probable cause scenario?
Sep 14, 2023
22 min
Student Debt Payback Blowout!
After years of pandemic-related moratoriums on the repayment of student loan debt, the clock has finally stopped ticking. Unless something dramatic happens, people will have to start paying back what they have borrowed. Have they budgeted for it? Not likely. If they haven’t, what expenditures get the ax? Essentially, what can younger people cut out of a monthly budget when there is a serious need for cash? In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam and John welcome another member of Generation-Z to the podcast, John’s daughter Annie Norris. With two Gen-Z’s with which to contend, will John be able to wax nostalgic about how much cheaper things were back in his day?  
Sep 6, 2023
22 min
COVID. Come Again?
It seems COVID is rearing its ugly head again. As a result, more and more people are wearing masks in public and consciously keeping their distance from others. It begs the question: what would the public’s response be to future mask mandates, economic shutdowns and shelter in place orders? Would we acquiesce as quickly as we did in 2020? Or will people push back on the government this time around? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the potential for a return of pandemic restrictions. Would the government try such a thing? Would people comply? Are there generational or regional differences? Regardless, next time should be different.
Aug 30, 2023
24 min
Are High Interest Rates as Bad as Advertised?
Everyone knows lower interest rates are supposed to stimulate economic growth. If that is the case, the inverse must also be true. However, is that really the truth? After all, the Japanese have had manufactured low interest rates for almost three decades, and where has the growth been? The same could be said for the Europeans over the last decade or so. Shoot, even the American economy seemed to be weaker than it should have been with artificially low rates. This begs the counterintuitive question: are high interest rates really as bad as advertised? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the impact permanently higher interest rates might have on the economy. It might not be as bad as feared.
Aug 23, 2023
22 min
Who is Going to Buy Our Debt?
The Chinese have been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve has stopped adding huge amounts to its balance sheet. However, Washington will still have to borrow trillions of dollars over the next decade. Will we be able to finance at 4% if the Chinese and the Fed are on the sideline? What will individual U.S. investors need to see before they go back to bonds? 5% 6% or higher? It seems higher interest rates are here to stay, but just how high is high? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss longer-term interest rates in the U.S. and where they think they will stop. What does the past suggest? What is their gut telling them?
Aug 16, 2023
22 min
The Dog Days of Summer Have Finally Arrived
After a positive July, the dog days of summer have shown up in August. The heat has been oppressive, Fitch downgraded U.S. Treasury debt, Moody’s downgraded the banks and the tech stocks have fallen apart. Is it time to worry? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, John and special guest Grace Schlenker discuss why things seem to be boiling over during the hottest time of the year.
Aug 10, 2023
21 min
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