The Vertical Space
The Vertical Space
Jim Barry, Peter Shannon & Luka Tomljenovic
#110 Mike Stengel, AeroDynamic Advisory: Gulf crisis impact on air travel
58 minutes Posted May 6, 2026 at 4:00 pm.
The tide is rising for all major end-markets
Middle East oil&gas flows
Alternatives to substitute the 10 mbpd gap
The practice of hedging
Where to expect service reductions
U.S. vs. rest of the world
Crack spread
Widebodies and the mega-hub model
Recovery scenarios
Exposing aviation's structural fragilities
Lessors as a natural buffer
The impact on SAF
The resources flow to the larger entities
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Show notes
We sat down with Mike Stengel of AeroDynamic Advisory to discuss what the US-Iran conflict is doing to aviation. The Middle East moves about 20% of global crude, and with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Gulf refining capacity damaged, jet fuel stocks in Asia-Pacific and Europe are drawing down while crack spreads widen in ways hedging contracts don't cover. Mike explains why US shale isn't the easy substitute, why Spirit just liquidated and JetBlue looks fragile, and why Delta's once-mocked M...