This post is an excerpt from our June 11, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.* We review our US Fixed Income Dashboard ahead of the June Fed Meeting and inflation data.* Structurally: Fiscal deficits, demographics, geopolitical tensions, and pension funding ratios all bias yields higher.* Cyclically: Our US term-premium, fair value, and neutral-rate models indicate fixed income markets are fairly priced on a 6-12m forward basis. * Tactically: Our Fed Hiking Regime model has triggered, but Powell has made clear his reluctance to hike, with the risk-reward appearing limited when looking at STIR markets. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our May 3, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.* We discuss our recent thematic report, The Structural Limits of Fiscal Policy, which dives into how politics led the US to its current state of "fiscal purgatory" and what history tells us is the most likely path forward to finance deficit spending.* The US fiscal situation appears to be a chronic rather than acute problem, making positioning for financial repression and low real yields our preferred allocation strategy in the long run. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This video was originally shared with VP clients on April 30, 2024 and can be viewed on the VP Portal here. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our April 7, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.Highlights from April 2024 Big Picture discussion:* Investors now view inflation as the “biggest tail risk”, but leading data is telling a different story, aligning more with a “mini inflation scare” scenario. We view fading fiscal stimulus as the actual greatest risk over the next 6-12 months, with upcoming April tax receipts as a key sign post.* History tells us fiscal deficits persist overtime in democratic nations, which raises long-term inflation risks. To combat these risks, the political path of least resistance is likely financial repression pending a major rise in social unrest.* Commodities and real assets are the likely winners in this environment. This creates major structural tailwinds for resource-intensive Latin American economies that remain capital scarce. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our March 22, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.Highlights from the March 2024 Global Macro Trading discussion:* What's worked and we still like: short THB, short CHF, short CNH* What hasn't moved or moved against us, but we still like: short SONIA vs SOFR, AUD flatteners* Cyclical trades that could be tactically choppy: long gold / energy / commodities, long Brazil equities, long USDLinks to the March and February EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch reports This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This video was originally shared with VP clients on February 4, 2024, and is also available on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our March 8, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.Highlights from the March 2024 Big Picture discussion:* The ongoing rebound in global leading growth inputs paired with the US fiscal outlook support our structural preference for commodities and real assets.* The covid-distorted inventory cycle is normalizing, shown by the closing of the ISM customer vs manufacturer inventory gap. This is a big positive development that we have been waiting for since 3Q23, and suggests we can have a classic manufacturing recovery again.* The mid-1990's disinflationary boom scenario was led by surging private investment, and while private investment has room to rise today, labor market and fiscal dynamics suggest greater inflation risk now vs the 90s. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our February 19, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here.Each month, we plan to have separate, more targeted market discussion calls, centered around a) big picture, top of mind macro themes b) asset allocation c) global macro trade ideas and d) ad hoc single stock discussions.Highlights from the February 2024 Asset Allocation discussion:* Fixed Income: There remains a tension between the longer-term structural outlook for higher yields (the Age of Scarcity) vs the cyclical peak in term premiums. We continue to see attractive value in MBS and TIPS and like adding exposure in the current backdrop.* Equities: In the US, we likely cannot price any less cuts from the Fed this year, given the need to price in a probability of accidents/stress later in the year. We view capital scarce sectors with high duration as the best way to capture upside from a cutting cycle while staying aligned with core structural return drivers. Globally, energy, goldminers, and LatAm are our favorite equity expressions.* Commodities: Tactical, cyclical, and structural signals have aligned to support going long real assets. Oil & gas and gold are structural winners in the Age of Scarcity.Clients can access the Desert Island and Asset Allocation dashboards using the respective links. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This video clip is courtesy of The Grant Williams Podcast and is used with permission. Investors need to be aware of when market participants are acting for reasons other than economic. Our LPPL (log periodic power law) models are one of many powerful VP tools that allow investors to better "play the game." VP CEO Tian Yang recently sat down with Grant Williams on his podcast to discuss. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

US fiscal and labor hoarding have been key supports for US growth. Under-the-hood issues of tax receipts and job openings suggest an elevated dependence on deficit spending, creating inflation upside risk.The AI investment spree has echoes of the fiber optic build-out. The productivity gains need to be weighed against an increasingly geopolitical world focused on security vs efficiency and where fiscal and monetary policy co-ordination is much more likely.China structural risks appear to be a feature, not a bug, favoring proxy plays to benefit from upside risks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com