Show notes
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro01:04 – Gold/silver discussion 02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,60003:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain