The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a summer vacation with a blunt read on the fall ahead: affordability — fuel, housing, food — has already decided the midterms, and the Iran conflict plus the Russia-Ukraine war have created a shortage not just of crude but of refined products, with refinery maintenance season and the shift to heating oil set to push prices higher still. He calls $100 oil and a 5% 10-year Treasury the new normal, argues Scott Bessent's buyback strategy has failed, and expects a quarter-point hike next week while raising the more unsettling question: what happens if the Fed raises short rates and the long end goes up anyway? On gold, Whalen is still accumulating, sees $6,000–$7,000 only after a fiscal catalyst like a bad Treasury auction, and points to Shanghai's gold-linked clearing system and Russia's 100-ton sale to China as evidence of where physical demand really lives. He also answers viewer questions on the exodus at Fannie Mae, the flawed data behind credit scores, how to actually save in gold, why he owns only Flagstar and Schwab, and warns that Florida's home price correction is coming for the rest of the country next year.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Welcome back: summer's over, a lot to catch up on0:50 – Energy prices and the midterms: decided at the pump?1:13 – Affordability is the story: diesel, heating oil, Europe's supply crisis2:51 – The $5,000 "Trump dividend" and buying votes4:13 – What nobody in Washington will say about insolvency5:00 – FDICIA, continuing resolutions, and a Congress that can't say no6:34 – Oil near $100: does it get worse from here?7:33 – Rates "going back to normal" after 15 years of Fed subsidy9:24 – Calling 5% on the 10-year — and Bessent's failed buyback strategy10:29 – Warsh rules out QE, spreads tighten anyway11:57 – Why banks are suddenly buying multifamily12:58 – Is 5% a stop along the way or the destination?14:31 – What Chris expects from the Fed next week15:06 – The big question: what if the Fed has lost the long end?16:11 – What losing control of long rates would actually signal17:24 – Gold with David Kotok, and why it's not a trading vehicle18:28 – Tom McClellan on the oil–gold relationship (with a 16-month lag)20:09 – A quiet year: banks, AI trade, and boring winners21:17 – What takes gold from $4–5K to $6–7K22:00 – Russia sells 100 tons of gold to China22:53 – Is the dollar really in decline? CIPS, Shanghai, and sanctions24:12 – How high can diesel and Brent go this winter?25:30 – Iran, the Houthis, and the Red Sea26:59 – Viewer Q: What's happening inside Fannie Mae?28:30 – Pulte, VantageScore, and the bad-data problem in credit scoring29:39 – Viewer Q: How do you actually save in gold?30:45 – Florida home prices are falling — "Misery on the Eights"31:31 – Viewer Q: The big money center banks32:47 – Viewer Q: Book recommendations and the gold book33:23 – Closing thoughts: an age of instability

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 — Intro1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 4923:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish27:42 — What the bond market is signaling29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

In part two of the all-viewer-question edition of The Wrap, Chris Whalen and Julia tackle everything from gold confiscation to credit union safety. Chris argues that a 1933-style seizure is possible in a debt crisis, since heavy government borrowing effectively encumbers every asset in the country, and that offshore physical gold is the only real protection. He explains why rising gold prices pressure the Treasury and gradually erode the dollar's role as the world's medium of exchange, drawing parallels to the monetary fragmentation of post-Roman Europe that he's been researching for his upcoming book. Along the way he critiques Jerome Powell for extending QE long after credit spreads normalized in 2020, pushes back on fears of a boomer-driven market selloff, breaks down how Annaly Capital actually makes money, flags private-credit takeovers of insurance companies as a genuine risk to annuity holders, and shares his own portfolio split. He closes with thoughts on land value taxes, the likelihood of a US VAT, and life in Florida versus New York.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Cold open: "No democracy can have sound money"0:25 - Welcome back — viewer questions only1:31 - Could the government confiscate gold again like 1933?4:50 - Inside Chris's new book on gold6:37 - Gold price outlook: 2026, 2027, 20288:30 - Best ways to own metals without holding physical9:27 - Why we ran surpluses from 1998-200110:30 - What Jerome Powell should have done differently13:44 - Will retiring boomers crash the market?15:42 - Equal-weight S&P funds at current valuations16:04 - Nvidia financing its own customers: circular financing?18:06 - Annaly (NLY) explained: leverage, servicing, and lending20:51 - Common shares or preferred?21:41 - Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? Chris's actual allocation23:47 - Are credit unions safer than banks?25:22 - Annuity owners: how to protect yourself from insolvency27:07 - Land value taxes, wealth taxes, and the case for a VAT28:37 - Florida vs. New York: an honest review30:00 - Wrap-up and housekeeping

Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, returns to explain why he sold all his silver and much of his gold exposure in late 2025 and early 2026 — then bought it all back, and more, in mid-July. With gold near $4,600 he argues it's still roughly 18–20% below its January high and nowhere near expensive if you're thinking in terms of a one-and-a-half to two-year horizon and a $7,000–$8,000 objective. The driver, in his view, is a loss of faith in the dollar backed by a fiscal picture with no exit: within five years, entitlements plus a slice of defense will exceed total federal revenue. Oakley explains why he'll only own Treasuries inside twenty-four months, why investors stuck in 20- and 30-year bond funds have lost millions with no way out, and why energy may be the bigger opportunity than gold — underowned after years of fossil-fuel divestment, profitable at $70–80 oil, and paying dividends from 6% to 11%. He also lays out the three classic ingredients of a market top, all of which he says are now in place, and previews his forthcoming book Asleep at the Wheel, aimed at boomers who've stopped rebalancing.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro01:04 – Gold/silver discussion 02:44 – "Is it too late?" Gold at $4,60003:55 – The real case for hard assets: losing faith in the dollar05:09 – $40 trillion in debt and Bessent's long-bond buybacks07:38 – Why Oakley won't own anything past 24 months10:16 – What gold is signaling — and why energy could move next12:20 – The energy thesis: underowned, cheap, 6–11% dividends15:17 – The psychology of buying and selling19:04 – Why energy isn't a buy-and-hold — and the copper trade22:08 – Commodities as the AI trade, and cracks in the semis23:37 – The three ingredients of a market top are all here26:00 – "Aren't you missing out?" Oakley's answer29:03 – How the Fed ruined fifteen years of price discovery31:56 – Half the industry has never seen a real bear market35:11 – The boomers who won't rebalance37:00 – Asleep at the Wheel40:32 – Parting thoughts: learn to go against the grain

In part one of The Wrap's viewer question special, Chris Whalen takes on a full slate of audience questions about the Fed, the Treasury, and where rates go from here. He explains why Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent have largely written off war-driven inflation as something monetary policy can't fix, and what it would actually take to change that posture. From there he walks through the plumbing most commentary skips: why shrinking bank reserves would push short-term yields down rather than up, how the Treasury can run its own version of quantitative easing through repurchase agreements, and why the Fed's mortgage-backed securities book — much of it now carrying an average life measured in decades — represents what he calls a study in hubris. He also fields the practical questions: whether long Treasuries are worth owning (his answer is no), where he'd park cash instead, what a 5% 10-year does to the deficit math, and how big the next crisis-era bailout would have to be. The episode closes on the yen carry trade, the limits of what Washington can do about it, and Whalen's expectation that nothing difficult gets attempted before the midterms.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Cold open: shrinking reserves and the Treasury's repo plan0:33 — Welcome + what this episode is (part one of viewer Q&A)1:10 — How long will the Fed stay indifferent to inflation?4:08 — Could we cut the Fed out of rate decisions and just use SOFR?5:02 — Would you buy a 30-year bond at these rates?6:35 — If the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, don't rates go up?9:43 — What does "Treasury doing QE on the short end" actually mean?12:30 — A word from Monetary Metals13:56 — Can the Treasury handle 5% on the 10-year?15:26 — T-bills — pros, cons, and better alternatives16:25 — How big does the next bailout have to be?18:48 — The yen, intervention, and the carry-trade squeeze21:16 — The biggest macro story of the back half of the year23:37 — Parting thoughts: Florida, earnings season, and UWM next week

Economic forecaster and bestselling author Harry Dent makes his debut on the show with one of the most aggressive bearish calls we've hosted. Dent — who built his reputation forecasting the 1980s–2000s boom and Dow 10,000 when almost nobody believed it — walks through the three long-term cycles he uses to map the economy decades ahead: the 39-year generational spending wave, the 45- and 90-year technology innovation cycles, and a geopolitical cycle. His conclusion is that the downturn that should have arrived in 2008 was smothered by roughly $31 trillion in stimulus, creating a bubble that now spans stocks, real estate, and even gold. He lays out what a full reversion looks like — a first-wave crash he thinks could be visible by October, housing down 60% in the middle of the country and more at the high end, and a path back toward the 2009 lows for equities — and explains why he believes long-dated Treasuries, not gold, are the only real safe haven. Dent also makes the case that the bust is not the enemy: it's where innovation and affordability come from, and where the millennial generation finally gets its shot. Looking past the washout, he sees India and Southeast Asia as the growth engines of the next four decades, China as structurally finished, and US tech as the thing to buy when it's on sale.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://hsdent.com/hs-dent-forecast/00:00 – Intro: Harry Dent makes his debut00:59 – How demographics became his life's work03:23 – The 45- and 90-year cycles that create bubbles04:15 – Calling the 2007 top back in the 1980s08:07 – AI is in its infancy — and that's when the biggest crashes happen09:00 – India is the next China10:28 – 2008 was 1930 all over again — and $31 trillion papered over it13:08 – Anatomy of the everything bubble14:30 – The average Ohio house down 60%. High-end down 70–80%16:47 – The millennials who got priced out are the ones who win19:12 – How far stocks fall: 90% on the S&P, 96% on the Nasdaq22:20 – The first wave: 42% in 2.6 months24:38 – "I was the most bullish forecaster on earth"25:40 – Positioning for the first crash: SQQQ and sizing27:06 – Why TLT and the 30-year Treasury are the trade after that31:08 – The case against gold: it joined the everything bubble34:21 – Which house should you sell? Not the one you think39:15 – China's 22% empty real estate and the coming reckoning45:00 – Nobody in a bubble sees the bubble because they're high on it48:55 – Watch October

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the 777 Partners bankruptcy — a sprawling collapse touching insurance, reinsurance, soccer clubs, and airlines that he says is a preview of how private credit ultimately unwinds: slowly, messily, and with fraud along the way. He explains why the contagion risk to insurance matters most for ordinary people, since firms like Apollo, Brookfield, and Blue Owl use insurance balance sheets to fund private credit strategies, leaving annuity and life policyholders exposed. Chris also digs into United Wholesale Mortgage, arguing the real problem wasn't the Two Harbors hedge but years of cash extraction and overvalued servicing assets — and what Oaktree's $1.5 billion rescue means now that "the grim reaper of Wall Street" is in the building. On markets, he describes a manic tape where cycles no longer exist, questions whether AI valuations survive Chinese competitors offering the same functionality at a tenth of the cost, and wonders whether Kevin Warsh will finally let the market take a hit. He then makes the case that the cooler CPI print is masking a genuine inflation problem: diesel is up roughly 35% since February, key industrial chemicals and LNG capacity was destroyed in the Iran conflict, and those input costs are rippling into food, housing, construction, and packaging. Finally, Chris explains why he thinks the gold and silver bull markets remain fully intact, and what the Byzantine Empire taught him about what happens when gold runs short.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 777 Partners blog post: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira879 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro1:37 - 777 Partners bankruptcy: what the demise of private credit looks like3:56 - Does this accelerate the slow-motion train wreck?5:45 - Contagion risk to insurance: annuities, life policies, and private credit balance sheets7:36 - United Wholesale Mortgage, Mat Ishbia, and the Oaktree rescue10:44 - Oaktree, the "grim reaper of Wall Street," and stress in mortgage lending11:00 - DSCR loans and the rental-property workaround12:13 - Monetary Metals: earn a yield on your gold13:22 - Markets at records: "the numbers are too big"15:20 - The Warsh Fed: will bailouts end?16:05 - AI valuations, the price war, and Chinese competition17:36 - Inflation beneath the surface: input costs are exploding18:08 - Diesel up 35%, heating oil, chemicals, and the fall squeeze20:02 - Food prices, farmers, and the Iran war fallout22:39 - Spillover into housing, construction materials, and packaging24:19 - Gold's run higher and Chinese buying25:13 - Silver: a commercial trade, and the supply problem26:44 - The WGA precious metals top 25 list28:14 - Lessons from Byzantine monetary history29:38 - Parting thoughts: private credit surprises, the Middle East, and the midterms30:39 - Closing

Jim Rickards returns for a wide-ranging macro conversation on a world where geopolitics and economics have fully merged. He lays out the US–Iran standoff as a global game of chicken — Trump betting Iran's economy breaks first, Iran betting the midterm elections break Trump first — and explains why he thinks Tehran holds the stronger hand, why regime change was always a fantasy, and how a handful of drones a week is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz bottled up. From there he turns to gold: how he used Jim Rogers' 50% drawdown rule and fractal scale invariance to call the bottom, why central bank buying puts a floor under the market, why gold works as a deflation hedge as well as an inflation hedge, and why he stands by his $10,000 target. He also dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, explains what Kevin Warsh's less transparent, market-following Fed means for investors conditioned to expect a rescue, and walks through the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade — which he calls the most important story in the world right now, and the one most likely to make 2027 messy. The episode closes on the darker side of AI: increasingly sophisticated voice-cloned scams aimed at older Americans.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsVisit CallFort.io  or download the app https://apps.apple.com/us/app/callfort/id6752949954Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro: welcome back, Jim Rickards1:04 – Geopolitics and economics have merged: chokepoints and economic warfare3:30 – The US–Iran game of chicken: what each side is betting6:13 – Regime change isn't happening — and why killing leaders backfired10:42 – Lost credibility and the Iran–Oman deal the US wasn't part of14:41 – The midterm clock, and how Iran keeps the Strait closed17:23 – [Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals]19:04 – Gold's drawdown: the Jim Rogers 50% rule and fractal math24:04 – Why gold goes much higher — and the $10,000 call25:03 – What's driving gold: central banks, deflation, flat mine supply31:15 – Why the "debasement trade" narrative is wrong33:00 – Inside the primary dealer world and the old Fed35:00 – Kevin Warsh, killing the dot plot, and a whole new Fed38:16 – [Sponsor: Monetary Metals]40:03 – The Fed's only real job — and what Friedman got wrong44:13 – The yen carry trade: the most important story in the world48:55 – The petrodollar, Japan's Treasuries, and the Bessent bailout51:43 – Why currency defenses always fail, and why 2027 gets messy52:50 – AI, sophisticated scams, and the Callfort app59:10 – What's next: climbing Kilimanjaro

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to explain why the global liquidity cycle peaked in late Q3/early Q4 of last year — and what that means for the rest of 2026. His core argument: money is fungible but finite, and a booming real economy is now pulling liquidity out of financial assets, which compresses P/E multiples even as earnings look fine. That puts us in what he calls the speculation phase: rising bond yields, strong commodities, pressured crypto, and low-quality equity returns where index gains mask widespread underperformance. He also pushes back hard on the popular "debasement trade" explanation for gold, arguing the real driver is the People's Bank of China injecting liquidity to devalue the yuan internally while holding it steady externally — with Chinese retail locked out of crypto and the Shanghai Gold Exchange now setting the marginal price. On the bond side, he lays out how the Treasury is quietly monetizing through front-end issuance and buybacks — private-sector QE under Treasury direction — a strategy that works until it doesn't, with Japan's move from 50bps to nearly 3% as the cautionary tale. His bottom line: range-bound Wall Street, no bonds, gold and silver on weakness, and watch commodities for the first sign the boom is ending.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 The call: range-bound market, own gold0:20 Welcome back, Michael Howell1:19 Two pools of money: markets vs. the real economy2:30 The liquidity cycle has peaked3:20 What this phase looks like4:48 Why a booming economy is bad for stocks5:22 The P/E multiple is where liquidity shows up6:34 Late cycle, explained7:38 Augusta Precious Metals9:29 Global liquidity vs. the world business cycle10:45 Atlanta Fed nowcast near 6%11:54 The K-shaped economy is global12:45 Monetary inflation vs. Main Street inflation14:45 Speculation now, turbulence next15:15 The cycle map17:55 Monetary Metals19:49 Gold: it isn't the debasement trade20:30 It's China: PBOC liquidity22:15 Why gold and not crypto23:14 Inside the PBOC balance sheet25:00 Yuan gold and the 27,000 line26:15 Bond yields track nominal GDP27:40 NGDP at 7-8% vs. a 4.7% ten-year28:18 Treasury QE: funding at the front end30:20 Who's actually buying the debt?30:51 The beach ball under water32:35 The two-year note leads the Fed34:30 The 2022 analogue36:00 Why MOVE matters more than VIX37:08 Treasury buybacks and the volatility cap38:30 Margin debt and the 2026 range call39:31 Parting thoughts: commodities as the warning40:30 Gold, silver, and the ratio to watch

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts