
Since the 2023 Vilnius Summit, NATO has recognised industrial capacity as a core element of deterrence. The Alliance has endorsed the Defence Production Action Plan, adopted the Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge, and aligned with parallel US and EU initiatives, the National Defence Industrial Strategy and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production to accelerate output, standardisation, and supply-chain resilience. Yet policy vocabulary has advanced faster than procurement logic. The return of industrial war, combined with a sensor-saturated battlefield, means that design choices now carry direct operational consequences. Manufacturability, supply substitution, repairability, and distributed production potential are variables of combat endurance. This article argues that NATO's real gap is not only an industrial-capacity gap, but also an industrial-operational doctrine gap: the Alliance has not yet fully integrated production resilience and battlefield transparency into a mature procurement doctrine suited to prolonged high-intensity conflict.
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Jul 9
23 min

The 2026 Hormuz Crisis is often misinterpreted as a fraying of Western influence; however, a closer look reveals a calculated recalibration of U.S. power. This article examines Washington’s pivot toward "Strategic Autonomy", a move that shifts the burden of regional stability onto competitors while insulating Western markets.
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Jul 2
9 min

The People’s Republic of China’s contemporary power strategy extends beyond military modernisation. It integrates overt strategic signalling, digitally amplified emotional storytelling, and Confucian moral framing into a unified hybrid model of influence. Through spectacles such as the 2025 Victory Day Parade, curated soldier narratives, and globally celebrated athletic achievements, Beijing projects deterrence while cultivating legitimacy. Understanding this fusion is essential for policymakers navigating twenty-first–century competition.
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Jun 25
37 min

Britain’s decision to allow the United States to use RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia in military action tied to the Iran crisis raises a simple but serious question. Can a state still call itself restrained when it provides the territory, access, and infrastructure that enable escalation? This article argues that it cannot. Once British-controlled facilities become operational enablers of war, Britain no longer appears like a distant observer. It becomes part of the conflict in the region's eyes, and likely in the calculations of any state considering retaliation. The article also argues that this choice weakens Britain’s diplomatic credibility, deepens legal and political risk, and exposes British citizens to strategic and economic costs that have not been honestly explained.
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Jun 18
7 min

Recent conflicts underscore the practical relevance of simulation-based and gamified approaches to military training. From the use of commercial platforms for pilot familiarisation to incentive-based systems for drone operators in Ukraine, gamified logic is increasingly shaping how military personnel train, adapt, and perform under operational conditions. Based on an exploratory field trial and drawing on the long-standing educational mandate attributed to Maria Theresa, this study frames gamification not as a technological novelty but as a contemporary medium for experiential learning. For the trial, officer cadets participated in competitive tactical scenarios using a commercial PC-based simulation (WARNO). Repeated questionnaires, an intermediate diagnostic intervention, and qualitative experiential reports were used to examine learning effects, including decision-making under time pressure, understanding of combined arms operations, and the role of structured reflection.
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Jun 11
31 min

Ever since the war in Iran erupted early in 2026, much of the world’s attention has been fixated on the Middle East. North Korea is no exception. It will likely be closely monitoring the conflict to extract lessons on regime survival, deterrence, and how to survive a multi-front war involving the United States. While the Iran case is not directly analogous to the Korean Peninsula, it nonetheless offers a set of strategic signals that will shape internal debates within the North Korean leadership. This conflict may reinforce North Korea’s existing policy trajectory rather than prompting a fundamental strategic shift.
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Jun 4
10 min

Communicative interoperability is vital in multinational coalition warfare. While current Extended Reality (XR) systems excel in procedural motor training, this study proposes developing the KMA-XR-AI system to expand this scope to the communicative ‘fog of war.’ The system is intended to synergise multimodal sensing with adaptive AI to complement traditional XR capabilities. By fusing bio-physiological and acoustic signals via a Hybrid Sensing Module, the system would calculate a real-time Cognitive Load Index (CLI) to drive a Smart Scaffolding Protocol. This intervention will be designed to distinguish between linguistic deficits and stress-induced inhibition during tactical verbal interactions, and ultimately, optimise verbal proficiencies essential for mission success, offering a technological evolution for future military training.
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May 28
34 min

Mosaic Warfare is often seen as a far-future concept linked to further breakthroughs in emerging disruptive technologies. This article argues that the war in Ukraine challenges that view. Although Ukraine does not explicitly use the term, its battlefield adaptation reflects core mosaic principles, including distributed low-cost uncrewed systems, adaptive kill webs, decentralised decision-making, and rapid sensor-to-shooter integration. The article shows that Mosaic Warfare is not merely a speculative future vision, but an increasingly useful lens for understanding military success and effectiveness in contemporary warfare. At the same time, the Ukrainian case suggests a changing character of warfare in which operational advantage depends increasingly on adaptability, distributed force employment, and the rapid integration of sensors, decision-makers, and shooters, while also exposing current limits in interoperability, communications resilience, sustainment, and organisational scaling. »» TDHJ «« » patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedefencehorizon » donate: https://tdhj.org/about/#donation
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May 21
33 min

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 has transformed a long-theorised energy security vulnerability into a present crisis. Maritime traffic through the Strait has collapsed by more than 90 per cent, removing approximately 17-20 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, the largest single energy disruption in modern history. This monograph examines the United Arab Emirates' cross-peninsula logistics corridor linking Sharjah Port Khalid on the Persian Gulf to the Port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman as the world's only existing partial bypass of the Hormuz chokepoint.
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May 14
29 min

Russia’s latest warning on Afghanistan matters because it lines up with the broader picture described in recent international reporting. The central issue is not whether Moscow has motives; it does. The issue is whether the underlying security assessment is credible. On that question, the evidence points in one direction. Afghanistan remains a permissive space for multiple militant actors with regional reach. That reality weakens the Taliban’s claim that Afghan soil is no longer a platform for external violence.
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May 7
6 min
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