The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Monday - October 12, 2026
17 minutes Posted Oct 12, 2026 at 9:19 pm.
Holiday Market Caveat
Bond Yields Recap
Market Moves Today
Breadth Warning Signs
Earnings Season Focus
AI Capex Reality Check
Weekend Geopolitical News
Senate Map Outlook
Savings Versus Spending
Housing And Fed Watch
Midstream And Wrap Up
0:00
17:25
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Show notes
In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com