The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
What to Make of Rising Bond Yields?
29 minutes Posted Oct 9, 2026 at 10:30 pm.
Welcome and Week Ahead
Why Long Yields Matter
Quick OpenAI Detour
Debt Is Not the Driver
Inflation Expectations Check
AI Debt Supply Shock
Fed Curve and Term Premium
Investor Impact and Breadth
Where Opportunity Lies Now
Final Thoughts and Sign Off
0:00
29:21
Download MP3
Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2
David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com