The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Tuesday - August 4, 2026
9 minutes Posted Aug 4, 2026 at 9:01 pm.
-levered AI hedge fund collapsing after a 67% drawdown. Economic data: job openings 7.3M (in line/slightly low), factory orders -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, trade deficit $73.3B. He answers a viewer question on inflation, explaining the Fed can influence money supply via its balance sheet but can’t directly control velocity, relying on multiple tools including interest on reserves, and references efforts to shift narratives back toward market-set pricing.
Market Rally Recap
Oil Rates And Geopolitics
Year To Date Performance
Wild Stock Reactions
AI Accounting And Volatility
Leverage And Hedge Funds
Economic Data Check
Fed Money Supply Question
How The Fed Tools Work
Wrap Up And Sign Off
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9:50
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Show notes
On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, but highlights unusually violent, bifurcated single-stock moves around earnings as investors struggle to discount AI impacts amid accounting and borrowing stresses. He warns leverage amplifies drawdowns, citing July deleveraging and a
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com