The Bayesian Conspiracy
The Bayesian Conspiracy
The Bayesian Conspiracy
A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.
244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Wilson
Andrew Wilson tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so. LINKS Andrew’s church substack – The Church of the Infinite Game To incorporate in CA file ARTS-PB-501(c)(3) CA Form FTB3500 booklet IRS document 1828 (see also the summary) Nonprofit Compliance Checklist The Ethical Cult Checklist AI Anxiety Dinners Eneasz’s follow-up post to Monogamy Police Paid Bonus content for the week – Andrew on the End of Capitalism (patreon, substack) Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – Take Me To Church 01:09:35 – Guild of the Rose 01:11:19 – Feedback & Follow-up on Monogamy Police 01:21:28 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
Aug 20, 2025
1 hr 23 min
Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast
Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons
Aug 14, 2025
13 min
243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot
Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police His blog, Living Within Reason The original tweets – monogamy vs charity Aella’s Chattel Childhood post The Mind Killer Our Groceries Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – The Monogamy Police 01:51:46 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
Aug 6, 2025
1 hr 53 min
Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling
Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!)
Aug 4, 2025
16 min
242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025
Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. LINKS Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack A reddit history of what convinced Trace he couldn’t remain Mormon The Center for Educational Progress Our previous episode with Trace were we discuss the modern secular religion of Social Justice Progressivism Love Stays Loved by Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg (Swimmer963) 00:00:21 – Trace Live at Manifest 00:42:31 – Follow-up with Trace 01:31:33 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
Jul 23, 2025
1 hr 33 min
Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem
Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.
Jul 22, 2025
13 min
Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans
Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park. LINKS Larissa’s Post detailing the whole event – Primary Hope The AI’s story – Resonance AI Village Short Stories – Maneki Neko, and Cat Pictures Please Kevin Roose was hated by the AIs Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
Jul 11, 2025
36 min
241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira
Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train. LINKS Doom Debates on YouTube Doom Debates podcast Most Watched Debate – Mike Israetel Liron’s current favorite debate – David Duvenaud MATS program for people that want to get involved (ML Alignment & Theory Scholars) How to Live Well with High P(Doom) The ancient TBC episode on AlphaGo Other Best-Of episodes of The Bayesian Conspiracy “Don’t Eat Honey” by Bentham’s Bulldog Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon. 00:00:05 – Doom Debates 01:29:34 – A Human Is Worth 7 Bees 01:37:20 – Guild of the Rose 01:49:24 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
Jul 9, 2025
1 hr 51 min
240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg
Many of us have a high P(Doom) — a belief new AI tools could cause human extinction in the very near future. How can one live a good life in the face of this? We start with a panel discussion with Ben Pace and Brandon Hendrickson at Lighthaven during the LessOnline conference, and take perspectives from our audience as well. Afterwards Eneasz speaks with Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg individually. Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon. LINKS MicroCovid.org The Fooming Shoggoths A Song For Two Voices Paid Bonus content – Steven & Eneasz talk one-on-one, with significant personal details from Steven’s life (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – Panel Discussion at LessOnline 00:39:10 – Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg chat 00:54:24 – Guild of the Rose 00:56:31 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
Jun 25, 2025
58 min
Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music
David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics to the main song we discuss (Silicon Soul) here! Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist He’s also one of the cofounders of the Guild of the Rose! Check them out and our initial episode with him and Alex.
Jun 14, 2025
16 min
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