RiskReversal Pod

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami broadcast from FactSet’s FOCUS Conference in Austin, highlighting FactSet’s AI innovations, its partnership with Risk Reversal Media, and Dan’s upcoming main-stage interview with new CEO Sanoke Viswanathan. They discuss a potential “SaaS apocalypse” narrative versus the value of closed, reliable data systems like FactSet, then shift to markets: software’s technical setup, Oracle’s overshoots, and an explosive semiconductor/memory rally (SOXX at highs) featuring sharp moves in Intel, Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, and SanDisk. They flag frothy private-market AI valuations (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX), risks of double/triple ordering and eventual margin deterioration, and cite Palantir’s weak post-earnings price action as a possible “fever break.” They also cover energy (Devon, OIH vs XLE), macro/valuation concerns, and weakening signals from Visa/Mastercard and banks. They promote the new YouTube dinner-series “Standing Table,” sponsored by Apex Fintech Solutions. Show Notes Watch our pod with Dan Benton: ⁠https://youtu.be/ijtHKlDYvO03⁠ Watch the trailer for 'Standing Table': ⁠https://youtu.be/JymGJWG98r0 —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Join the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ Guy Adami and Danny Moses open with a brief New York Giants aside before turning to markets, focusing on Jerome Powell’s final Fed press conference as Chair, his plan to remain a governor, and expectations that Kevin Warsh will become Fed Chair as the administration seeks more influence over the Board. They discuss how markets have stayed resilient despite $100 oil, rising global yields, a weakening yen with Japan intervention near 160, geopolitical stress, and a subdued VIX, attributing much of the strength to passive flows and forced institutional chasing. Moses flags inflation beginning to filter through via price hikes and warns the consumer may eventually feel higher energy costs. They debate energy stocks’ durability even if crude eases, remain constructive on gold amid fiscal/geopolitical risks, note elevated valuation signals like the Buffett indicator, and address concerns about “fantasy math” in AI, citing OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar’s tempered adoption comments and cautioning retail on private-market secondaries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: www.Fidelity.com/TraderPlus Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. Dan Nathan speaks with David Rosenberg about a market week packed with tech earnings, GDP, PCE, the Fed, oil above $100, and a sharp USD/JPY move. Rosenberg argues the U.S. economy is K-shaped, with Q1 GDP growth heavily driven by AI-related tech capex while non-tech business investment contracts, and consumer spending exceeding flat-to-negative real disposable income mainly due to a falling savings rate, wealth effects at the high end, and credit reliance at the low end amid rising delinquencies. He says most sectors are losing jobs, productivity has driven nearly all recent growth, and an oil price shock is a supply-side tax likely to weaken demand rather than create sustained inflation. They discuss a divided Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh, high market concentration, extreme valuations with a near-zero equity risk premium, and whether yen moves or oil are bigger risks for equities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan is joined by Guy Adami for a deep dive into a Wall Street Journal report on OpenAI's sprint toward IPO — and the growing tension between CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Frier, whose candid comments about the company's financials are raising eyebrows. Dan and Guy unpack what $120 billion in fresh capital, massive enterprise contracts, and a web of vendor financing really mean for the AI trade — and whether the whole ecosystem is as solid as it looks. From there, the conversation widens to the broader hyperscaler picture: which companies are spending big on AI infrastructure, which ones (like Apple) are quietly waiting it out, and what upcoming earnings from the biggest names in tech could reveal about whether the AI build-out is paying off. The guys also touch on Microsoft's setup heading into earnings and where the stock might be headed. Show Notes OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO (WSJ) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan interviews Michael Nathanson, co-founder of MoffettNathanson, on the RiskReversal Podcast about his 28-year analyst career and pivot from linear media to digital advertising and Big Tech. Nathanson explains why Google and Meta became a hedge against cord-cutting-driven declines in cable networks, noting their strong growth, performance-ad monetization advantages, and durable distribution. He reflects on mistakes (notably underestimating Netflix) and lessons about backing secular winners while monitoring capital formation and competitive narrative shifts. The discussion focuses on AI’s impact: Nathanson defends Alphabet’s willingness to innovate, infrastructure advantages, first-party data, and TPU strategy, while questioning Meta’s heavy AI and metaverse spending without a clear long-term plan or returns framework. He also describes MoffettNathanson’s industry-first, supply-demand research process and independence from investment banking conflicts. After the break, Dan hosts Adam Singolda, CEO and founder of Taboola, on the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss Taboola’s role in the open web advertising market outside Google and Meta. Singolda explains Taboola’s performance ad platform serves thousands of advertisers and pays partners about $1.5B annually, helping publishers, apps, and OEMs monetize and drive engagement. They discuss publisher pressure from LLM-driven “Google Zero” traffic declines, and Taboola’s “Deeper Dive” answer engine that sits on publisher pages to enable conversational engagement; Taboola data shows users who ask questions generate 3+ times more revenue and 2–3 times more engagement than traditional ads. Singolda also announces a Claude skill that lets users launch and optimize Taboola campaigns agent-to-agent based on performance goals, argues OpenAI will struggle to build an ad business while Google’s Gemini will likely succeed, and outlines how companies must adopt AI aggressively to accelerate growth and profitability. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss a narrow, under-the-hood stock market rally driven largely by AI beneficiaries—especially semiconductors and data-center hardware—while hyperscalers lag as they turn asset-heavy and free cash flow falls. They note extreme momentum in semis (record RSI/long winning streak) and debate catalysts for a reversal, including hyperscaler CapEx guidance, potential demand destruction from higher component costs, and front-loaded ordering tied to war-driven supply fears. The conversation broadens to geopolitics: war-related commodity impacts, Strait of Hormuz risks, and U.S.-China leverage via rare-earth magnets critical to defense production, with expectations Trump’s China trip may be pragmatic. They touch on defense stocks’ vulnerability to drones, Fed-chair transition expectations toward Warsh, early earnings takeaways (banks steady, homebuilders fragile), and focus on upcoming hyperscaler results for ads and CapEx. Show Notes Checkout The Boock Report: peterboockvar.substack.com/ FactSet's Earnings Insight: factset.com/insight/subscribe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan interviews Wedbush's Dan Ives on “Okay, Computer.” about Tim Cook unexpectedly stepping down as Apple CEO (remaining chairman) ahead of WWDC, Apple’s still-unclear AI strategy, and why Apple’s installed base could make it a key “toll collector” for consumer AI via edge computing, services, and an AI-enabled App/agent ecosystem that may drive higher hardware memory needs and subscriptions. They discuss whether Apple’s valuation can rerate if it proves AI success and argue the new CEO should be more acquisitive in AI/software/robotics. Ives says fears that Anthropic/OpenAI will “unseat” major SaaS incumbents are a false narrative, expecting AI monetization to improve as features bundle into core products and pricing models evolve. They preview earnings setups for Microsoft, Google, and Meta, and share Asia channel-check takeaways: strong AI hardware demand, a memory supercycle, and potential geopolitical supply-chain risks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss an unusually persistent market rally, with a “sea of green” pushing the S&P 500 to new highs as crude oil reverses lower on signs the Strait of Hormuz remains open during a ceasefire. They debate whether investors are conditioned to buy dips even if Middle East tensions flare again, noting VIX levels and an overbought setup heading into the heart of earnings. They flag Netflix down 10% despite solid free cash flow, attributing the drop to guidance and Reed Hastings leaving the board, and call out Intel’s near-parabolic move ahead of a pivotal print. They also examine software’s potential inflection (including SAP), strong bank CEO tone on the consumer, energy-stock pullbacks as buying opportunities, homebuilders surging on lower yields, and key upcoming guests and shows. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson back to the Risk Reversal Podcast to discuss his career at the firm and his current market outlook. Wilson argues markets have largely priced in bad news and likely put in the year’s lows near the 6,500 range, citing capitulation signals, positioning, and sentiment, though geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict remains. He sees earnings strength and broadening beyond the “Mag Seven,” with opportunities in small caps, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials, while noting AI-driven hyperscalers became cheaper and can still work. Key risks include bond volatility and a loss of control of long-end rates amid heavy refinancing needs and a Fed leadership transition. They also cover AI CapEx returns, energy constraints, U.S.-China competition, private credit’s limited systemic threat, consumer affordability issues, and Wilson’s 7,800 S&P 500 target within 9 to 12 months. Show Notes Earnings Insight (FactSet) China’s surging chip tool imports from south-east Asia (FT) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss major tech themes and trades, focusing on dispersion in mega-cap tech and the recent underperformance and rebounds of the “Mag 7.” They examine Microsoft’s AI positioning and Azure deceleration amid ongoing capacity and power constraints, contrasted with rivals (AWS, Oracle, GCP) picking up demand tied to OpenAI. The conversation highlights Michael Burry’s view that software-stock declines have been amplified by software credit stress and may be overextended, with Oracle as a key example given its steep drawdown and elevated CDS. They also cover Apple’s AI strategy, reliance on Gemini, WWDC expectations to improve Siri, and key technical levels amid headline sensitivity. Finally, they assess Intel’s sharp rally tied to a reworked CHIPS deal and Nvidia involvement, and preview Netflix earnings with a mixed technical setup and potential upside. Show Notes Trading Post Monday April 13th (Cassandra Unchained) Top of the Morning (Axios) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media