Polls suggest that the New Hampshire Primary should be more competitive than Donald Trump's large margin in Iowa's low-turnout caucus. Just 4 of New Hampshire’s 10 counties will likely comprise 75% of the primary electorate. Dante Scala, University of New Hampshire, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to offer a guide to which New England hamlets offer the best clues to the outcome on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Kyle also discusses among which key demographic groups Donald Trump did better in Iowa’s low-turnout 2024 caucus compared to 2016. Links in this episode A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP

It’s a flurry of snow and presidential campaigning in Iowa this week in the leadup to the Hawkeye state’s caucuses on Monday, January 15, 2024. Although former president Donald J. Trump continues to hold the lead in polling averages by 30+ percentage points in Iowa, candidates and campaigns are inundating the public with ads, leaflets and rallies, hoping Iowans will brave the freezing temperatures and weather conditions to caucus for them.  Dr. Karen Kedrowski, Director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss campaign strategies, changes to the Democratic caucus, and how all the efforts might impact the outcome and what it means for the 2024 presidential election. They also discuss changing demographics in Iowa and key areas to watch as caucus results roll in.  Links in this episode:  Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University Previewing the Iowa Caucus: A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik (January 11, 2024) 

As we commemorate the third anniversary of the attacks on the U.S. Capitol, we talk with DC Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges. On January 6, 2021, Ofc. Hodges responded with Civil Defense Unit 42 to the attacks on the U.S. Capitol as Capitol Police units were overrun. Ofc. Hodges fought those who assaulted the Capitol on the west lawn, the west terrace, and in the tunnel leading out to the inaugural platform, sustaining many injuries in the process. While fighting in the tunnel he was crushed by rioters in the west terrace doors of the Capitol and beaten. He returned to full duty within a month and continues to serve as an officer. Not only does he continue to serve, he also has testified in court cases about January 6 and in a case in the Colorado Supreme Court, which recently ruled  that Donald Trump is disqualified from the state's 2024 ballot under the Constitution's “insurrectionist ban.” Former President Donald Trump formally asked the US Supreme Court to reverse that decision on January 3. Along with others who defended democracy on January 6, 2021, Officer Hodges received a Congressional medal, the Presidential Citizens Medal and the Center for Politics’ 2023 Defenders of Democracy award. Hodges joined the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department in 2014.  Hodges has also received multiple awards for his services with MPD, including a Commendation medal for responding to a man brandishing a gun and threatening MPD Officers and talking him into disarming and surrendering.  Civil Disturbance Unit 42 is a "rapid response" platoon that is equipped with non-standard defensive gear and is activated for policing a variety of First Amendment assemblies, protests, and riots. Links in this episode: Officer Daniel Hodges testifies to Congress about the January 6, 2021 attacks on the U.S. Capitol.

Kyle Kondik shares his new analysis on Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball that compares Trump’s approval in 2019 to Biden’s approval in 2023, the same point in each presidency. He finds that Biden’s lower approval is not driven by a higher level of antipathy from Republicans. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also reflect on the state of democracy and the upcoming 2024 elections.  Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023

Former Members of Congress Barbara Comstock (Republican) and L.F. Payne (Democrat), and Alex Theodoridis (UMass) join Carah Ong Whaley and Samuel Kipps (UVA '23) to discuss the findings from a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024 and the differing narratives surrounding the events of January 6th. They also discuss the state of dysfunction and polarization in Congress and efforts to rebuild trust and civility in politics. Rep. Comstock is a senior adviser for the law and lobbying firm, Baker Donelson, a political commentator, and, most importantly, a resident scholar with us here at the Center for Politics, among many esteemed positions. Rep. Payne is president of Three Ridges Group in Charlottesville, VA, and a member of the University of Virginia’s Board of Visitors. and also joining us is Alex Theodoridis, Associate Professor of Political Science and co-director of the UMass Poll at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.  Links in this episode:  U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress and University of Massachusetts Amherst UMass Poll

Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the December 6, 2023 Republican primary debate, Nikki Haley's moment and the broader dynamics of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and the challenges faced by the other candidates in their attempts to attract Trump's voters. They also talk about the retirements of several members of Congress and the implications for lawmaking and upcoming elections, as well as the new congressional map in Georgia. Links in this episode:  Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 7, 2023 The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl joins Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato to discuss his new book, Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Karl offers new insights and reporting in his third book on Donald Trump’s presidency and its aftermath with implications if he were to return for a second term.

In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley talk with Patrick Ruffini, a Founding Partner of Echelon Insights and Republican pollster about his new book Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. The book examines an unfolding political realignment especially along class lines with implications for the 2024 elections and beyond.

Representative Ted Lieu, named by Time Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in AI in 2023, joins us to discuss how the chaos in the House of Representatives is preventing progress on addressing the promises and challenges of generative Artificial Intelligence. He also shares his views on how AI might impact the workforce and elections. On the impact of deepfakes in the 2024 elections, Congressman Lieu says, “It’s going to be a problem and the best counter to it is to urge everyone to not trust what they see.”  Rep. Lieu represents California's 36th Congressional District and is serving his fifth term in Congress and currently sits on the House Judiciary, Foreign Affairs, and Science, Space, and Technology Committees. He was also elected by his colleagues to serve as Vice Chair of the Democratic Caucus, making him the highest ranking Asian American to have ever served in House Leadership. He also has the distinction of being the first member of Congress to introduce legislation written by General Artificial Intelligence.  Links in this episode:  Bipartisan House members propose AI commission

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 voters in several states will go to the polls to cast ballots in state and local elections. Many voters have already cast a ballot early in-person or by mail. Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the Crystal Ball’s mega preview of some of the key elections we are watching: gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi; the state legislative contests in Virginia; an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio; and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania.  Links in this episode:  A 2023 Election Mega-Preview