It’s the United States’ semiquincentennial … and one of us is not feeling it. The other is literally carrying a flag in her bag — and that’s just her road flag. Kathryn Anne Edwards makes her case for optimism right now: The U.S. is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic and cultural shifts of any industrialized nation. Americans agree that Congress is broken. And the people's agenda on wages, childcare, money in politics, and Social Security polls above 80%. Maybe this isn’t a backslide. It's just what clearing the air looks like. Chapters: 00:01:21 Announcements 00:04:10 Retcon: More on the national anthem 00:06:36 Terms & Conditions: Origin of "the melting pot" 00:08:01 Big Pilcrow: Make Robin Optimistic about America 00:48:17 Executive Orders: End gerrymandering; mandatory hearings on supermajority issues 00:50:03 Spiritual Sponsors: Knicks celebrations; bourbon in Louisville Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Facebook somewhere (search for it), on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

We can’t give financial advice. Or feedback on your 20-page tax proposal. But economist Kathryn Edwards did take a run at nearly 20 listener questions in under 60 minutes. Among them: Why care about birth rates if robots are taking all the jobs? What happens if the AI bubble bursts? Will the dollar collapse? Can the bond market sway the White House? Plus: Why the minimum wage matters even if it doesn’t alleviate most poverty and how to argue for universal free school lunch.  Chapters: 1:43 — AI & birth rates 2:57 — AI & birth rates (cont.) 5:43 — AI bubble burst 8:11 — The experience of inflation 11:20 — Minimum wage & poverty 13:55 — Job loss after 50 17:30 — Productivity squeeze 21:00 — CEO pay ratio cap 21:49 — Could the dollar collapse? 26:59 — Bonds & the Fed 28:35 — Debt ceiling fix 31:12 — Trump Accounts vs 401k 34:42 — Tax dollar waste myth 36:46 — Universal school meals 40:11 — Part-time for new parents 42:28 — Fighting monopolies 44:14 — Policy ideas for Texas 47:34 — Mamdani goes federal? 50:43 — Top 1% wealth myth Dis-save a bit to help Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Unbeeped episodes at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Short videos on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. We are on Facebook. Search for us.  Get in on the Optimist chat on Substack. Get on the wait list for our next batch of hats: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Get in touch: [email protected]

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery. Chapters: 00:01:14 Announcements 00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised  00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression" 00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation? 00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban 00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE Support Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com/donate Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or search for us on Facebook. Chat with Optimists on Substack. Hats, tees and totes: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at: [email protected]

Thirty million Americans, more or less, work for themselves. They freelance, do gig work, have solo LLCs, or — as a certain economist says — participate in “ non-employee employment.” The economics of their situation is harder than it needs to be. Making self-employment more viable is good for everyone in the labor market, because when workers have options, they also have more power. Plus: Kathryn Anne Edwards testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, and a congressman implied she wasn't a real American. She has thoughts. Chapters: 0:00 — Start/Announcements 1:21 — Retcon: Bad banks, good overtime, and testifying before Congress (again) 18:17 — Big Pilcrow: Freelancers & non-employer businesses 44:42 — Executive orders: national anthem singing rules, Congressional attendance policy 47:20 — Spiritual sponsors: Supportive listeners and horchada + cold brew coffee 49:01 — Credits Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

(Originally aired 7/1/2025) Newly minted college graduates are having a harder time landing that first job than in recent years. Is it AI? Is college useless? Is it a crisis? (No. No. And not yet…) College graduates under 27 still have significantly lower unemployment rates (5.8%) than high school graduates of the same age (6.9%). What economist Kathryn Edwards finds worrying is that these new workers, who are typically a lagging economic indicator, may in this case be a bellwether of a weakening economy.  Support the Optimist Economy podcast by becoming a paid subscriber on Substack, or donating at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com. You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram -------- Read More: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates [New York Fed, 2025] Hires, from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [St. Louis Fed, 2025] Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle [Labour Economics 2016] Upskilling: Do Employers Demand Greater Skill When Workers Are Plentiful? [The Review of Economics and Statistics 2020]

A certain kind of wealthy American has been griping out loud lately — about taxes, about progressive cities, about how unappreciated they are for the jobs they create, the stuff they buy, and the tips they hand out. A narrative is coalescing around them too: that the top 10% of earners now do so much of the spending, the U.S. economy relies on them. But an economy that depends so much on the people at the top isn't the healthy one the country deserves — it’s just wearing a nice suit. Chapters: 00:00:56 Announcements: Q&A episode questions wanted 00:01:18 Retcon: The 86 debate; FDR's full "calamity howling executives" quote 00:05:32 Terms & Conditions: Wealth Effect and Zugzwang 00:09:26 Big Pilcrow: Should we cherish the ultra-wealthy? 00:36:41 Executive Orders: Retire "mummies"; union credits on red carpets 00:39:34 Spiritual Sponsors: Mellow Cello podcast; enormous floral arrangements Further Reading Moody's claim that the top 10% of earners now drive nearly half of consumer spending in the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-rich-spending-2c34a571 The Minneapolis Fed on what the underlying data actually shows. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026/have-us-consumers-gone-k-shaped-a-review-of-the-data Wealthy part-time New Yorkers reacting to a proposed pied-à-terre tax in the Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/3283eaab-e9cf-41e6-a028-5a02fb6f4615 The Wall Street Journal on second-home taxes spreading from New York City to other states, including the San Diego homeowner who'd like to be cherished. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/taxes-on-second-homes-are-springing-up-across-america-93a64448 Full reading list at https://optimisteconomy.substack.com Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

It wasn’t just hourly factory jobs that were supposed to come with a 40-hour workweek. Even salaried jobs were supposed to get overtime pay, though very few do do anymore. Overtime protections are the only legal mechanism enforcing work-hour limits, and for 50 years, the salary threshold that determines who qualifies to receive overtime has been left to erode. Employers found another workaround too: just call the sandwich maker a "sandwich manager." Now, the new no-tax-on-overtime deduction isn't protecting workers — it's rewarding the kind of overwork it was overtime was originally designed to punish. Fixing the law governing overtime would be a huge and instant boost not just to the U.S. economy, but to our work-life balance. Chapters: 00:01:43 Announcements 00:02:32 Retcon: Economic data reliability 00:05:54 Terms & Conditions: Tenterhooks; Perquisite  00:08:23 Big Pilcrow: Overtime  00:45:27 Executive Orders: Badge of shame for working past 40 hours; more colorful cars 00:46:52 Spiritual Sponsors: Awesome first bosses; Faraday e-bike Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch clips on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to [email protected]

Cash is dirty, inconvenient, and so last century. Some 70% of Americans under age 50 think its days are numbered. But we still need those greenbacks, if as an alternative to banks. More than 4% of households are “unbanked,” and three times as many are “underbanked,” meaning bank services mostly don’t work for them, so rely on services like check cashers or payday lenders. And that's before you get to the racial disparities in who banks approve for credit. Reviving banking services at the post office might be one way to help the unbanked and keep from handing yet more power to the finance sector.  Chapters: 00:00:48 Announcements 00:02:30  Retcon: Semiquincentennia  00:03:35 Terms & Conditions: ChexSystems, Unbanked 00:05:46  Big Pilcrow: What’s keeping the U.S. from going cashless? 00:38:28  Executive Orders: Regulate youth sports schedules; Airline baggage fees by weight. 00:40:56  Spiritual Sponsors: Artemis splashdown; Friends with season tickets. Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video clips available at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. You can also search for us on Facebook and chat with other Optimists on Substack. Consume leisure while donning Optimist merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Have a questions for our next Q&A? Send it to [email protected]

Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Jobs aren't being added. Prices keep climbing. GDP barely grew at the end of 2025, and a ‘meh’ 2% last quarter. Shouldn’t this be a recession? Not so far. Economist Kathryn Anne Edwards walks through the clear cause of each bad number: Tariffs explain the prices and foul mood. Mass deportations explain the jobs. The government shutdown explained last quarter. Still, knowing the passing reasons for economic pain doesn't make it hurt less. And none of it changes the long-term economic reforms we still need. Chapters:  00:01:06 Announcements 00:01:57 Retcon: Wealth at retirement 00:03:52 Terms & Conditions: Recession, Slack, Tight, Loose, Goodflation/Badflation 00:09:10 Centerpiece: What is going on with the U.S. Economy right now? The vibe is don’t panic. But don’t not panic.  00:53:38 Executive Orders: Free work parking. Legislators do their own taxes. 00:55:00 Spiritual Sponsors: Genre-specific bookstores and great newstands Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Hey, we are on Facebook! Follow us! Or,  on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. You need this hat: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Send us your economic questions and concerns at [email protected]

(Originally aired 5/06/25) What sparks progress? The right political conditions? Social pressure? Economic upheaval? In response to two listeners’ questions, we say… both none of those and all of the above. As an example, we talk through just one bit of the New Deal in the 1930s, which was the law to limit child labor. That movement started decades earlier, and continued decades afterward. For those keeping score at home, this a sneaky third installment of Kathryn’s 68-part series on the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.  Chapters:  00:01:08 Announcements 00:01:43 Retcon 00:03:58 Terms & Conditions 00:07:03 Centerpiece 00:42:56 Executive Orders 00:46:25 Spiritual Sponsors Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Follow us on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Shirts, caps and totes, oh my!: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at [email protected]