Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat. Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics: the launch of Sweden’s own civilian intelligence service, whether President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects uncertainty or strategic deception, and the data supporting the skeptical American attitude about AI.  In this episode: (02:13) Sweden to Launch Its Own MI6 (06:01) Trump Hyperbole and Iran (09:18) America’s AI Skepticism (12:26) Interview with Michael Kofman (13:10) State of the Ukrainian-Russian Frontlines (15:30) Russian Military Goals vs. Means (19:43) Russia’s False Picture of Success (23:17) Evolution of Warfare on the Frontlines (28:58) Assessment of International Response (33:18) Patriot Missile Licensed Production Timeline (37:02) Changes in Ukrainian Defense Leadership (43:28) Corruption, Procurement, and Funding in Ukraine( 48:58) Russia’s Threat Post-War(54:50) Ukrainian Morale on the Frontlines\(57:18) Defining the Front Line of Fighting (01:00:21) One Decision to Watch (01:02:47) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up Show Notes:  The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-russia-threat-michael-kofman   Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

AI models in the United States may be ahead of China’s in terms of capability, but China far surpasses America in adoption and use. That’s what former US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo says about the state of the AI race, and why she believes it's critical for the US and its allies to understand one thing: China is not our friend. She spells out how exactly China is creating technological dependencies, particularly in European countries, why it’s still important the West maintains continuous, managed economic competition with China, what social adoption of AI should look like in the US to curb anxieties around job loss, and why she remains optimistic about the promise of AI despite all this. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh analyze the events making the biggest geopolitical headlines: FBI Director Kash Patel’s upcoming trip to Russia, a nuclear deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, more changes in defense leadership in Ukraine, and the latest with the war in Iran. In this episode: (01:04) Kash Patel to Visit Russia (04:45) US-Saudi Nuclear Deal (09:39) Changes to Zelenskyy’s Cabinet (14:06) State of the Iran War (18:24) Interview with Gina Raimondo (19:17) US-China AI Race (23:00) Europe’s Vulnerability to China’s Influence (26:16) Managing Economic Competition between US/China (28:31) Why AI is a Geopolitical Net-Good (30:27) Social Adoption of AI (35:31) Regulation for AI (37:44) One Decision to Watch (38:58) Takeaways and Wrap Up Show Notes:  Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (Former Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Professor Vali Nasr argues that the single objective that's driven Tehran since 1979 has been defending its independence from the US. Author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, Nasr says that logic, more than ideology, explains the current war. He unpacks Iran's shift toward hard-nosed nationalism, what leverage it has left, and whether the country will take a more pragmatic approach to geopolitics.  Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host John Raine talk through the headlines shaping today’s geopolitics: Japan's intelligence overhaul, the fallout from Zelensky's clash with his defense minister, China's new AI cooperation push, and the UK's untested new PM Andy Burnham. 03:16 Japan Builds Spy Agency07:35 Ukraine Defense Shakeup11:14 China Pushes AI Rules14:49 New UK Prime Minister18:24 Guest interview begins23:20 From Islam to Nationalism28:15 War Pragmatism and New Leaders32:27 Proxies and Forward Defense38:21 How the War Ends43:43 Gulf Markets and Hormuz48:12 Buying Peace49:49 Energy Shifts and Long Game55:37 One Decision to Watch56:23 Takeaways and Wrap Up Show Notes:  Iran’s New Grand Strategy: How a Remade Islamic Republic Will Reshape the Middle East | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-new-grand-strategy  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In recent months of the war, Ukraine has managed to hold its front lines and bring war to regular Russians via attacks on infrastructure. That’s why Economic Advisor to the President of Ukraine Chrystia Freeland believes Ukraine has flipped the narrative from being the virtuous victim of Russia’s aggression to the necessary ally and shield of Europe. This week, she joins Sir Ben Wallace and co-host Kate McCann to make the case for why Ukraine is winning, and why winning on the economic battlefield is equally important to the country’s future.  Freeland talks about how Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is laying the political groundwork for Ukraine’s economic success, the importance of Ukraine’s alliances, and why Poland’s success story should serve as a model for Ukraine’s post-war future. They also discuss Ukraine’s strong defense industrial base, the importance of rooting out corruption and the remnants of Soviet ideology for bringing in investment to the country, the challenges of attracting people back to Ukraine, and why victory for Ukraine is a victory for liberal democracy. Plus, In Brief: what Andy Burnham is up against on the UK’s defense front as he ascends to the role of Prime Minister, another battle in the Strait of Hormuz reignites conflict between Iran and the United States, and a leadership shakeup in China’s People’s Liberation Army. In this episode: (00:00) Cold Open and Introduction (02:21) Incoming UK PM Andy Burnham  (04:16) IRGC Proscription Explained (05:20) Renewed Tensions with Iran (09:14) China Military Leadership Shakeup (10:32) Chrystia Freeland On Ukraine (11:35) Is Ukraine Winning? (15:38) Ukrainian Sentiment on the State of War (24:43) Zelenskyy’s Political Strategy (29:44) Ukrainian Defense Innovation (33:36) Why Crimea Was A Strategic Blunder for Putin (37:17) Ukraine’s Future Economic Vision (42:39) Corruption and Investment in Ukraine (53:32) Rebuilding Ukraine and Returning Home (56:28) Why Allyship is Key for Ukrainian Success (59:48) Reflecting On Politics, Alliances, and the Future of Ukraine Hosted by Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defense Secretary) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Football can be geopolitics by other means. Financial Times Journalist Simon Kuper has covered every World Cup since 1990. This week, he joins Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika to unpack how football and geopolitics collide.  Kuper explains why he thinks FIFA president Gianni Infantino runs the organization like an autocrat, how U.S. President Donald Trump's red card intervention echoes historical precedents set by Mussolini and Brazil's military government, and why hosting a World Cup brings prestige but rarely economic benefit. The conversation also covers the KGB's use of Soviet football clubs for cover during the Cold War, football's role in the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, why China's investment in football hasn't paid off, and how France's multicultural national team has become a flashpoint in its domestic politics. Plus, in Brief: Russian strikes on Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit, German prosecutors' Nord Stream allegations against Ukraine, deepening Russia-China military cooperation, and reports of Trump pushing for a "master list" of intelligence assets. In this episode: (00:00) World Cup Geopolitics Football & Global Power (00:45) England's Surprising World Cup Victory (03:05) Football As Geopolitics Explained (03:24) Russia-Ukraine War Intelligence Analysis (11:12) Trump CIA Spy List Dangers Exposed (14:25) Andy Burnham Northern Devolution Power Shift (19:10) Simon Kuper On The Geopolitics Of Football (23:07) FIFA Corruption Infantino's Autocratic Control (28:00) Jules Rimet World Cup Origins Peace Vision (30:23) 1954 World Cup Rebuilt German National Identity (38:42) KGB Soviet Football Cold War Espionage (47:53) Argentina 1978 World Cup Junta Propaganda (49:52) Qatar 2022 World Cup Human Rights Backlash (1:02:49) Reflecting On Football Power, Politics, & Identity Show Notes:  Soccernomics: Why European Men and American Women Usually Win―and American Men Don’t (Yet) | https://a.co/d/07dBzyak World Cup Fever: A Soccer Journey in Nine Tournaments | https://a.co/d/0g5raBr3 Football Against The Enemy: https://a.co/d/04OUzQgR  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Donald Trump has continued his pressure campaign on European defense spending. But in the lead-up to the next NATO Summit, there is another core question to ask: How is Europe coordinating its defense production? This might be the key issue that determines how Trump's pressure campaign pays off in the long run.  Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove are joined by Ambassador Julianne Smith (Former United States Permanent Representative to NATO under President Biden) and A. Wess Mitchell, Ph.D. (former senior State Department official who helped shape the first Trump administration's Europe strategy) to break down what's really at stake in Ankara.  Plus: Should NATO stay laser-focused on Russia and leave China to the U.S.? How deep is the lingering trust deficit after the Greenland dispute?  Got a question or comment? Email us at [email protected] or drop us a comment on YouTube. We might answer it in next week's episode. In this episode: (00:00) Cold Open (00:57) Where US-Iran Talks Stand (06:33) Five Eyes Warnings: Chinese LinkedIn Recruitment & AI Threats (11:51) Setting the Scene for NATO's Ankara Summit (13:35) What Does the US Want Out of This Summit? (19:47) Debating What "US Leadership" Really Means (24:59) Trump's Balancing Act: Pressure vs. Reassurance (28:04) The Coordination Problem: Europe's "Potluck Dinner" (37:19) Should NATO Even Focus on China? (44:31) The Anglosphere & AUKUS Debate (45:23) Who's the Most Awkward Meeting for Trump in Ankara? (47:47) Is Trump's Personality a Distraction From Policy? (50:05) Will the Iran War Overshadow the Summit? (52:35) Chaos Agent or Strategic Operator? (56:19) The One Decision to Watch at Ankara (59:31) Listener Mail: Energy Pricing & Geopolitical Reality (1:04:15) Listener Mail: Cuba's Civil Society Problem Show Notes:  https://youtu.be/0pYUYBwRdLs?si=2fbDUznnuIs-Y5H3  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7FGkxRO_es  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of the United States’ MOU with Iran, the headlines have been chock-full of optimism. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Sabrina Singh sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, RBC Capital Markets, to lend more nuance to the news.  Also: What Starmer’s resignation could mean for the UK, takeaways from the recent G7 meeting, Ukraine’s success with drones, and how things have changed in the decade since Brexit.  In this episode: (00:00) Intro: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Explained (02:00) UK PM Starmer Resigns: What Comes Next (08:34) G7 Summit: China, Ukraine, and Europe's Crisis (14:22) Ukraine War: Can Russia Be Stopped? (18:35) Brexit at 10: Was It Worth It? (23:24) Is the Strait of Hormuz Really Open? (30:08) Oil Markets React to Iran-US Peace Deal (36:55) Iran Nuclear Deal: What's Really at Stake (44:39) Iran Sanctions Explained: Congress vs. Treasury (48:01) OPEC's Collapse: Saudi Arabia vs. China (51:47) Best and Worst Case Outcomes for Oil (58:22) Key Takeaways: Global Energy's New Reality Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (former Pentagon Press Secretary) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The man who secretly negotiated with Cuba for the Obama Administration says it plainly: the risk of military intervention is quite high. Ricardo Zúniga breaks down why the U.S. and Cuba are headed toward conflict, why the Cuban regime would rather fight than negotiate, and why Cuba is not Venezuela, no matter what the White House says. Also this week: the Iran-U.S. ceasefire deal, the resignation of UK Defense Secretary John Healey, and what Armenia's election means for Putin. In this episode: (02:07) Iran Deal (07:32) UK Defense Shakeup (09:39) Armenia Votes West (12:14) Cuba Interview Begins (15:04) Life Inside Cuba (18:31) Cuba Versus Venezuela (20:22) Russia China Backing (24:01) Collapse Crime Risks (28:28) Will US Strike Cuba? (33:04) Reform Not Bombs (36:51) CIA Channel Talks( 44:00) Intermediaries Options (46:34) One Decision to Change Cuba’s Fate  Show Notes:  The Day After in Cuba | Foreign Affairs https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/day-after-cuba  Is Cuba About to Fall? A 35-Year CIA Analyst on What Comes Next | One Decision https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddlk1Wxy8To  Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The minerals inside your phone, your car, and U.S. fighter jets almost all pass through one country: China. Dr. Gracelin Baskaran, founding director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at CSIS, joins Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to explain how China built a stranglehold on rare earth production, and what it will actually take to break it. Critical Minerals are this century's defining supply chain vulnerability: it's a demand problem, a democracy problem, and, for the West, a race against a country that isn’t swayed by elections. Also: Israel's espionage escalation against US officials, Poland's rise as Europe's top defense power, and the fall of Orbán's Hungary. In this episode: (00:00) Intro: China's Rare Earth Minerals Takeover (01:43) World Cup 2026 Preview (03:50) Middle East Conflict Updates (06:57) Israel Spying on US Officials? (08:43) Bill Pulte Named Intelligence Director (10:27) US APAC Strategy Shifts (14:41) Poland Becomes Europe's Defense Power (16:44) Hungary After Orbán's Fall (19:57) China's Critical Minerals Chokehold (27:12) Western Mining Supply Chain Crisis (38:28) Frontier Markets: Africa's Mineral Race (57:32) Taiwan Crisis and Mineral Shortages Show Notes:  The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/06/us/politics/pentagon-sees-growing-espionage-threat-from-israel.html Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Iran conflict contains dueling narratives. Iran says it repelled the attack. Israel says it decimated the nuclear program. The US says it brokered peace. So, how do you find out what actually happened? That’s where Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) can provide valuable information to the public.  Eliot Higgins built Bellingcat from a Leicester living room blog into the world's most influential open source intelligence organization. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with him to find out how OSINT cuts through the war of narratives on Iran, Ukraine, and the fronts nobody's covering. Plus: why AI is making the truth harder to find, not easier, and why Higgins won't set foot in the United States right now. Show Notes:  bellingcat.com  The al-Qaeda offshoot looking to Syria as a blueprint | The Financial Times Senior State Department official sought internal communications with journalists, European officials, and Trump critics | MIT Technology Review Why these Irish cartel bosses are still free | Search Party   In this episode: 03:21 Iran Ceasefire 06:39 Israel Strategy Explained 08:53 EU Gets Tough on China 12:30 Mali The Next Syria 16:21 CIA Gold Bar Scandal 20:12 Meet Eliot Higgins 23:37 What Is Bellingcat 25:41 AI Slopaganda Threat 29:20 Dark Web Data Trails 31:13 Russia Adapts Tradecraft 32:54 UAE Image Manipulation 34:07 Rapid OSINT Response 35:57 Blackouts and Radar Tools 37:17 Iran Narrative War 39:17 Tomahawk Strike Verification 41:50 Prediction Versus Proof 43:19 Spies Versus OSINT 46:19 Threats and Harassment 50:56 Ukraine OSINT Evolution 54:50 Why China Is Hard for OSINT 01:00:31 Funding and Partnerships Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices