Market Currents
Market Currents
Northern Trust Wealth Management
Pull back the curtain on financial trends. Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Katie Nixon tackles big market questions to help you distinguish between fact, fiction and theory.
Across the Metaverse with Julie Sweet, Accenture CEO
Virtual reality isn’t science fiction anymore. The biggest companies on the planet have invested heavily in digital worlds, also known as “the metaverse.” And it’s not just the tech and entertainment industries–the metaverse has applications across the economy. Knowing what the metaverse is and how to implement it can drive significant value today and put you ahead of the curve tomorrow; but only if you use it right. To help you navigate this emerging technology, we spoke with Julie Sweet, Chair and CEO of Accenture, the world’s biggest professional services company. Under her leadership, Accenture has been at the forefront of metaverse research, advisement, and adoption. In this episode, Julie shares the three distinct categories of metaverse application, and how companies are implementing the technology today. Together, we explore the power and potential of the enterprise metaverse, and what still needs to be solved before it goes mainstream. Plus, how investors can evaluate these digital worlds.Join us as we merge the digital and physical worlds and prepare for the not-so-distant future.Highlights: The three metaverse categories (3:03) How AI connects to the metaverse (8:43) How Accenture prepares companies to adopt metaverse solutions (13:01) What stands in the way of widespread use (15:01) The ethics and risks of metaverse technology (17:17) Why Julie believes metaverse will reinvent how we operate (19:39) Links: Northern Trust - Wealth Managementhttps://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/what-we-do/wealth-management Northern Trust Twitterhttps://twitter.com/NorthernTrust Katie Nixon Biohttps://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/insights-research/wealth-management/experts/nixon-katie Katie Nixon LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/katherine-nixon-61783816 Accenture Websitehttps://www.accenture.com/us-en Julie Sweet Biohttps://www.accenture.com/us-en/about/leadership/julie-sweet Julie Sweet LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/julie-sweet/ Metaverse Insights - Accenturehttps://www.accenture.com/us-en/insights/metaverse Feedback:If you have questions about the show or topics you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer ([email protected]).
Aug 24, 2023
21 min
Where Did the Workers Go?
Wages are rising and unemployment hit a 50-year low. But while that’s good for job seekers, it’s potentially challenging for policymakers fighting inflation. At the heart of this dynamic is a tight labor market–one where the demand for workers is greater than the supply of jobs. In this episode, we ask: where did the workers go? To answer that, we talked to John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, the nation’s first executive outplacement firm. John’s firm helps companies support workers transitioning careers or finding new jobs, giving him a unique and broad view of the labor market. And the story is more complicated than just more jobs and fewer workers. In recent months, John has seen differing trends develop across industries like tech, manufacturing, and distribution while changes to remote work and hybrid productivity have added new nuances for workers and employers alike. Together, we unpack who has left the labor force, why, and what industries were hit hardest. Plus, what to make of recent layoffs at some of the nation’s biggest companies. Join us as we explore what this means for companies, the marketplace, and you.Highlights: Why high employment is seen as a problem (2:13) Who has left the labor force (4:32) The pandemic changed how we work (7:14) How inflation will affect this expansionary period (10:12) What layoffs signal about the economy (12:48) How to retain workers in a tight labor market (18:18) Links: Northern Trust - Wealth Managementhttps://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/what-we-do/wealth-management Northern Trust Twitterhttps://twitter.com/NorthernTrust Katie Nixon Biohttps://www.northerntrust.com/united-states/insights-research/wealth-management/experts/nixon-katie Katie Nixon LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/katherine-nixon-61783816 Challenger, Gray, & Christmas Websitehttps://www.challengergray.com/ John Challenger LinkedInhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/john-challenger Feedback:If you have questions about the show or topics you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer ([email protected]).
Apr 27, 2023
21 min
Data Point: Demystifying the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey - January 2023
Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, breaks down 2023’s first University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The survey — which tracks how respondents feel about the economy — offers a valuable window into consumer behavior, making it key for policymakers and investors.While January’s survey reflected plenty of optimism, with inflation expectations receding for the fourth month in a row, it wasn’t all good news. Two-thirds of consumers expected an economic downturn in the next year. How will that affect future inflation? And what does it mean for the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy?Join Katie as she interprets the survey’s findings, from concern about a wage-price spiral to the Fed’s silver lining — and why it should matter to you.  Highlights: Consumer sentiment on personal finances & durable goods (0:40) Inflation expectations & the wage-price spiral (1:02) Consumers expect economic downturn (1:45) Why investors and policymakers value sentiment data (2:00) Why the January responses are a win for the Fed (3:21) The silver lining to consumer pessimism (3:46) Links: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Northern Trust - Wealth Management Northern Trust Twitter Katie Nixon Bio Katie Nixon LinkedIn Feedback:If you have questions about the show or topics you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer.
Feb 23, 2023
5 min
Central Banks Versus Inflation: Your Questions Answered
This year has offered little shelter to investors trying to avoid downdrafts across all asset classes. Inflation has been stickier and more unpredictable than expected. The Federal Reserve and global central banks have been more hawkish as they struggle to manage inflation without creating economic harm. Global interest rates have been extremely volatile with consequences for stock valuations as equity prices and corporate earnings are cast into doubt.  Everyone from investors to wage-earners has joined central bank policymakers in closely watching data releases to see which parts of the economy have begun responding to interest rates rising at the fastest clip in 40 years. Northern Trust hosted a webinar with clients on Sept. 28 where Katie Nixon, Chief Investment Officer for Wealth Management discussed clients’ most pressing questions with Carl Tannenbaum, Northern Trust’s Chief Economist, Chris Shipley, chief investment strategist for North America and Tim Johnson, head of portfolio solutions for global fixed income. This podcast is an excerpt from their conversation. The group discusses: How much economic pain will central banks tolerate in their efforts to control inflation?  Are startling gyrations in deep and liquid markets such as currencies and global sovereign debt uncovering the potential for a financial crisis?  How will we know when the stock market has reached a bottom? Is the Federal Open Market Committee relying on the wrong indicators as it makes policy decisions?    Carl Tannenbaum is the Chief Economist for Northern Trust. He briefs clients and colleagues on the economy and business conditions, prepares the bank’s official economic outlook and participates in forecast surveys. Before joining Northern Trust, Carl spent four years leading the Federal Reserve’s risk section. He was deeply involved in the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, helped to create and conduct its stress testing program, and advised senior Federal Reserve leaders on developments in banking and the financial markets. Christopher Shipley is head of fundamental equities at Northern Trust Asset Management, where he oversees the firm’s fundamental equity research and portfolio management efforts. Chris is a voting member of the firm’s Tactical Asset Allocation Committee and Investment Policy Committee. He is also co-portfolio manager of the Northern Global Tactical Asset Allocation Fund. Tim Johnson is the Head of Portfolio Solutions and member of the global fixed income team at Northern Trust Asset Management. In this capacity, Timothy heads three key groups within global fixed income: our passive/index business, portfolio construction, and quantitative research. In addition, Timothy is also a member of the Fixed Income Strategy Committee, a group that formulates the fixed income platform’s strategic macroeconomic and investment themes that in turn informs overall strategy, risk budgeting and portfolio construction across all fixed income portfolios.
Oct 7, 2022
24 min
As Rates Rise, do Bonds Belong in Real-World Portfolios?
The first quarter of 2022 saw negative returns across the U.S. bond market as persistently rising inflation surprised central bankers and bond investors alike. Dramatically rising interest rates have focused bondholders’ attention on fixed-income investments – even provoking some to abandon the asset class entirely.   In this episode of Market Currents, Northern Trust’s Katie Nixon welcomes Peter Mladina, director of portfolio research for Wealth Management, to explore the purpose of fixed-income securities in volatile and uncertain conditions, which seem likely to shape the investing landscape for the foreseeable future.  Mladina discusses: The unique role of safer, risk-control assets in a portfolio and the foundational function they hold alongside return-seeking risk assets.  How investors can structure a portfolio to secure high-priority goals by matching the maturity of risk-control assets with expected liquidity needs.  Northern Trust’s Portfolio Reserve and how it is customized to secure a specified number of years of lifestyle spending. Interest-rate risk and its headline role among the types of risk that fixed-income investors are exposed to, and a the way risk-control assets hedges them all through periods of volatility and unpredictability.  Peter Mladina is responsible for applying research, tools and methods that support asset allocation, portfolio construction, investment selection and best practices in portfolio management to the wealth management investment process. Peter is an Adjunct Professor of Economics at UCLA, where he teaches applied finance for the Master of Applied Economics program. His research on asset allocation and portfolio construction has been published in peer-reviewed journals and he is a co-author of the CFA Institute’s revised Level III asset allocation curriculum. He received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from UCLA and Master of Business Administration degree from Edinburgh Business School.
May 4, 2022
19 min
Does Conflict in Ukraine Shift Global Energy Forever?
The war between Russia and Ukraine is a direct conflict between two of the world’s biggest commodity exporters, causing disruptions that will be felt for years. As European leaders seek to reduce or eliminate their countries’ exposure to Russian energy supplies and western companies voluntarily exit the country, maybe never to return, the conflict is reshaping global energy markets.  In this episode of Market Currents, Jackson Hockley, Northern Trust’s analyst covering energy joins Chief Investment Officer Katie Nixon to talk through the ways Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global reactions to the war are upending expectations for producers and consumers as well as a hoped-for green energy transition.  Hockley discusses:  The role that U.S. energy production plays in offsetting the loss Russian supplies of crude oil, natural gas and coal.  China’s position as an energy consumer amid the geopolitical shifts the conflict has spurred.  New challenges to a hoped-for green energy transition as energy security and decarbonization entail increasingly steep tradeoffs.  The potential for a beneficial reevaluation of global goals for energy and how they may be achieved.  Jackson Hockley is the senior energy and materials analyst at Northern Trust. He has followed the energy sector for more than three decades and is responsible for macro analysis of the energy and materials sectors as well as individual company research and stock recommendations. Jackson is a CFA charterholder and holds a bachelor of science degree in investment finance from Arizona State University.
Apr 21, 2022
21 min
Another Head Fake, or Brighter Future Ahead? Weighing the Case for European Equities in 2022
While the U.S. stock market has outperformed European indices for years, it is important to remain aware of the benefits of global diversification. And recently, we have begun to see changes in Europe giving us greater confidence in this view: European economic growth is expected to slightly outpace the U.S. this year, and equity market valuations have come down, potentially offering a more attractive entry point for geopolitical, monetary policy, earnings and sector diversification benefits.  In this episode of Market Currents, Northern Trust’s Katie Nixon is joined by Wouter Sturkenboom, the bank’s chief investment strategist for the Europe, Middle East and Africa region as well as the Asia-Pacific region. Katie and Wouter discuss:  The evolution of European fiscal policy from an austerity mindset to a pro-growth agenda Lessons the European Central Bank is putting into practice for nurturing sustainable growth and supporting governments in difficult times with interest rates and liquidity The relative weighting, valuations and profitability of the companies that make up U.S. and European indices and what each market may offer investors About our guest: Wouter Sturkenboom, CFA, CAIA, is chief investment strategist for EMEA and APAC at Northern Trust. He is responsible for formulating the regional asset allocation views, putting those views in a global context and communicating the firm’s opinions. As a member of the Interest Rate Strategy Committee and Investment Policy Committee, Wouter helps produce long-term asset class forecasts, as well as set tactical and strategic portfolio allocations and recommendations. Wouter is a CFA® charterholder and is a certified Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst. He holds a master’s degree in international affairs from George Washington University and master’s degree in international economics from Maastricht University.
Jan 19, 2022
24 min
Vax Requirements, Boosters, Variants and Waves: Navigating the COVID-19 Information Deluge
Several months ago, it appeared as if a return to normalcy from the COVID-19 pandemic could be in sight. Primarily due to the spread of the Delta variant, however, the picture has become considerably more clouded. With individuals, companies, medical authorities and governments all continuing to react to the changing dynamics, and corresponding information and opinions broadcast 24/7, the landscape can be confusing and muddled. In this environment, expert insight is essential for all, including investors.  In this episode of Market Currents, Northern Trust’s Katie Nixon is joined by healthcare sector senior analyst Erick Noensie to discuss the underlying data informing current expert views on the state of the pandemic. With a Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins Medical School, Erick has been an invaluable resource to Northern Trust clients throughout the pandemic.  Erick discusses: Why expectations for a fast U.S. decline in cases could be overly optimistic The factors driving significant variations in infection rates in highly vaccinated countries Whether loosening global travel restrictions are likely to impact case counts Factors informing the CDC’s booster recommendations  Whether COVID-19 is likely to become endemic, such as the seasonal flu About Erick Noensie: Erick Noensie is a Vice President at Northern Trust, where he covers the healthcare sector as a senior equity analyst. Prior to joining Northern Trust in 2018, Erick held several senior analyst and portfolio management roles focused on the healthcare, biopharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors at well-known asset managers. Erick received a Ph.D. in Medical Genetics from The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and a B.A. in Biology from Cornell University.
Oct 6, 2021
20 min
Interest Rates: Grounded or Ready for Take Off?
As economic reopening continues and supply-demand imbalances lead to price increases, investors are understandably fixated on the future path of interest rates — a key driver of future growth and returns. But in this particularly unusual period of economic history, what will the Fed do? Many believe higher inflation is transitory and that the Fed should wait it out. Others argue that it should take action now to get ahead of a potential problem in the future.  In this episode, Colin Robertson, Northern Trust Asset Management’s head of fixed income, weighs in on this debate. To do so, he provides historical context, interprets Fedspeak and illuminates the economic and policy dynamics that will drive interest rates going forward.  Colin discusses: The drivers of low interest rates since the financial crisis  Noise versus signal related to predicting future monetary policy  The current and most likely future shape of the yield curve Northern Trust’s outlook for total bond returns  The merits of owning bond funds versus individual bonds And more About Our Guest: Colin Robertson is an executive vice president and head of fixed income for Northern Trust Asset Management. This role includes overseeing fixed income investments for individual and institutional investment management accounts at Northern Trust, Northern Funds and Northern Institutional Funds. Through his leadership managing interest-rate-sensitive and credit-sensitive fixed income portfolios, Northern Trust has built a world-class fixed income team, investment process and products.
Jul 23, 2021
22 min
How Long Will the Chips Be Down? The Global Semiconductor Chip Shortage with Deborah Koch
As the U.S. economy continues to reopen amid relaxed COVID-19 mitigation measures, pent-up demand is outstripping supply in many cases. One acute example is in the semiconductor chip industry, which provides “the brain” inside a wide range of products that power our modern lives, including smartphones, cars and even washing machines.  In this episode, Northern Trust’s Katie Nixon is joined by Senior Technology Analyst Deborah Koch to sort through this important topic and answer some key questions: How long will the global chip shortage last? What consequences could it have on inflation and the economy? What regulatory response will ensue?  Deborah discusses: An overview of the semiconductor industry and its role in the technology ecosystem  An estimate of how long it will take to fix the supply-demand mismatch Corporate and government responses to the strategic issues laid bare by the shortage  The long-term outlook for the chip industry as companies pursue digital transformations And more About Guest: Deborah Koch is a senior equity research analyst at Northern Trust focused on the technology sector. With more than 30 years of experience, she has built a track record of leveraging forward-thinking vision to identify and help clients benefit from market shifts in the technology sector. Before joining Northern Trust, Deborah held several senior analyst and portfolio management roles at well-known asset managers. She is a CFA® charterholder.
Jun 16, 2021
17 min
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