Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics. 

Inflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM economist, and Michael Langham, EM analyst, about the economic outlook across the emerging markets. 

Luke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrought by the pandemic will reverse this trend, and the impact of demographics, (de)globalisation and AI.  

 Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession. 

Paul and Luke speak to Michael Saunders, former external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, about the UK economy and the Bank’s track record. 

Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the UK economy. They discuss recent trends in growth and inflation, how the UK stands against international peers, the political implications of a possible recession, and the fraying of the “green consensus”.

Paul talks to Professor Jonathan Haskel, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and co-author of ‘Restarting the Future: How to fix the intangible economy’, and Sree Kochugovindan, senior economist at abrdn, about the intangible economy. The economy increasingly consists of ideas, brands, and relationships. This shift from “stuff” to intangibles has wide-ranging implications for productivity, competition, inequality, and how policymakers should manage the modern economy.

Luke and Paul talk to Chris Miller, academic, historian and author of Chip Wars: The fight for the world’s most critical technology, about the economic and geopolitical importance of semiconductors. They discuss the technological and supply chain marvel that is the modern microchip, whether the US-China-Taiwan chip nexus is politically stabilising or destabilising, the impact of the CHIPS Act, and AI innovation as a driver of market performance and future great power competition.

As China’s re-opening rebound fades, Paul and Luke talk to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group and Robert Gilhooly of abrdn about the Chinese economy. The discuss the prospects for policy easing, the state of local government finances, and internationalisation of the renminbi.

The US is facing another debt ceiling stand-off, with very high stakes for the economy and markets. Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, and Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist, about the current impasse and how it could be resolved. They discuss the history of the debt ceiling, the likely shape of a deal, the impact of possible spending cuts on the US economy, and the worst-case scenario of a US debt default.