Equity rally is broad, earnings-driven, and still not stretchedMarkets can tolerate higher rates until speed becomes the riskAI capex is creating a sustained, structural inflation floor
Jun 3
30 min
Equity rally is fundamentally earnings-driven, not war “denial”Excessive hedging mispriced the upsideBonds are selling off because inflation is shifting from short-term to structural
May 5
25 min
Convexity conundrum: diversifying assets didn’t workCommodities are not tariffs and cannot be altered at the stroke of a penTape bombs are having diminishing impact
Apr 1
23 min
More about rotation than directionBonds are still not protectingImplied correlation / VIX is at a record low
Mar 4
21 min
Healthy correction in gold and silverHigher nominal rates globallyWarsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX
Feb 3
19 min
Ready, Shoot, Aim FedMisunderstanding of Oracle CDSWelcome back to the ‘90s
Dec 5, 2025
29 min
Long Vol and long DeltaPaid to be long CorrelationBuy Everything!
Oct 31, 2025
23 min
Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earningsMarkets go up... volatility goes upThe Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the Everything ElseCross-asset correlations are already historically high — a short hop to “1”Gold is expected to move higher, driven by global populist monetary and fiscal stimulus
Oct 6, 2025
19 min
• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost
Aug 28, 2025
19 min
US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illnessTipping point for US Dollar weaknessRisk appetite still going strong!
Jul 1, 2025
16 min
Load more