Consumer exhaustion is kicking in, yields have come down, and the economy is beginning to show signs of slowing. Since outlining our three-themed bonds outlook, we’re finally getting an indication that it’s coming to fruition. As we get ready to transition to phase 2 (“duration is your friend”), investors could embrace longer duration on expectations that yields will fall further and the economy will continue slowing. Will the headwinds that impacted bonds as yields rose become tailwinds when yields fall? For all this and more, tune in to our new podcast episode.

Episode 87: Under the microscope: looking closely at a potential recession Recession—it’s a word that continues to dominate the minds of investors and economic scientists alike. We hear about it so often, it sometimes seems like our expectations and concerns magnify. Yet, there could be important information that some people don’t see. Let’s focus the lens a little and scrutinize some of the financial details. • What’s a soft or hard landing, and can we expect one or the other? • Why has a potential recession been delayed? • Does the economic data tell us whether a recession is inevitable? • How will the anticipation of a potential recession continue to affect the markets? Zoom in for a better view.

School has started once again. And while students return to their classrooms and books, investors’ minds turn to their portfolios, the economy, and the markets. But there’s so much to learn when it comes to managing your investments. So, what subjects have currently reached the forefront for the Capital Markets Strategy Team? Three key investment themes are at the top of the class right now: • Prepare for near-term equity volatility amidst uncertainty. • Buying bonds is one thing; buying the right bonds is another. • Position your portfolios for tomorrow, not just today. There’s the bell! Let’s listen in.

Many topics waltz across the minds of investors. They twirl through our thoughts and sometimes step on our toes. Two things have been leading us lately: the rise of artificial intelligence (A.I.) and its role in the markets, and the recent surprise Bank of Canada interest rate hike. We won’t dance around the subjects—there are relevant inquiries that we need to address: • Has A.I. played a role in what the S&P 500 Index been experiencing this year? • Are we seeing a replay of the 1990s dot-com bubble? • Why did the recent interest rate increase happen, and will it happen again? • How much of the current economic situation can monetary policy control? • What are the investment implications? Let’s glide gracefully over the investment floor to answer these questions.

Every so often, we find ourselves swimming in a sea of similar-sounding questions about what’s affecting or going to affect the markets. These inquiries come around on a regular basis, but do they hold any water when it comes to our investments? We brave the waves, look at some of these recurring questions, and ask, “As investors, do we care about this?” • U.S. debt ceiling discussions • Sell in May and go away investment strategy • periodic market rallies • seasonal market volumes Let’s dive in and see what’s beneath the surface.

Lightning struck some U.S. and European banks recently, and investors may be feeling like the jolt is still coursing through them. Frances Donald, Global Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins the Capital Markets Strategy team to delve into current bank problems’ effects on the investment world and spark discussion on related topics: • What’s been the historical response to banking volatility? • How do we define financial stability? • Are interest rates likely to go up or down in the near or distant future? • Where does macroeconomics come into play in the investment cycle? • Has our outlook for the coming months changed? The markets may be somewhat charged right now, but stay positive.

Star Trek, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The Terminator, Blade Runner, The Matrix—artificial intelligence (A.I.) has been a recurring science fiction theme for decades. But in fact, A.I. has come to the forefront of many discussions around scientific advances. Robotics, deep-learning models, smart cars, ChatGPT, and so on—where is this technology headed? We look at some of the applications of A.I.: • caring for the elderly by using sympathetic robots • using facial recognition software as the main way to identify you • improving customer experience with personalized algorithms • benefitting from AI—areas that may be worth watching … and more. What we can do with A.I may be nearly unfathomable. Maybe we’ll even create artificially intelligent chocolate chips someday—they’d make one smart cookie.

To bond or not to bond? That is the question. Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to invest in bonds or guaranteed interest certificates (GICs) preoccupies many investors. Where would William Shakespeare put his money and why? Who knows? But we have reasons for believing bonds may be the better option for today’s investors: • Looking back over past performance of Canadian bonds, they usually outperform GICs. • Historically, the outperformance of Canadian bonds is sizably higher than GICs per year. • Reinvestment risk could give lower returns from GICs. There are more things in bonds and GICs than are dreamt of in your philosophy—let’s discuss them.

A new year has arrived. Many investors are breathing a collective sigh of relief that 2022 is done and are looking for indicators of better investment opportunities and returns in 2023. Financial needles point toward shifting economic conditions, but what types of changes will we see? • What are we looking at to help determine what the coming year may bring? • Will a recession happen? How bad could it be? • Where is inflation going? And what will central banks do in response? • Does it look like market volatility is settling down? • Are equities or fixed income looking more attractive? Gauging the markets isn’t an exact science. But the more we learn, the more likely we’ll recognize the signs.

Cold and flu season struck and early and hard in 2022. It has also been a somewhat sick time in the markets this past year. Could 2023 give investors a chance to start easing the sniffles, coughs, aches, and pains of the volatility we’ve experienced? Let’s use our stethoscopes and thermometers to examine three phases of potential opportunity in bonds moving forward: • the sweet spot—bond yields • duration is your friend—longer-duration and higher-quality fixed-income instruments • take on risk—when markets have fully priced in a recession Hot tea with lemon, a warm blanket, and a good investment strategy—just a few things that can make you feel better about your road to recovery.