Geopolitics with Frank McKenna
Geopolitics with Frank McKenna
TD Securities
Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair at TD Securities and former Premier of New Brunswick and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, discusses geopolitical issues of the day in this monthly series hosted by Peter Haynes, Managing Director at TD Securities. For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/geopolitics-podcast-public
Where is Roxham road?
In Episode 37, Frank deep dives the immigration complexities of North America, in particular the issue of refugees seeking asylum from the USA into Canada via irregular ports of entry not covered under existing immigration agreements between the two countries. He admits there is no easy solution to the US's Southern border refugee problem which is complicated by the fact it is not just Mexicans using its border to enter the US illegally. Frank discusses the rhetoric between Russia and Ukraine at the one year anniversary of the War and explains why an audit of Western Aid during a war is all but impossible. He finishes with a look at the Dominion Voting Machines lawsuit of FOX News, which judged in the court of public opinion is a slam dunk victory for the plaintiff. Chapter Headings 1:55 - Roxham Road Immigration Leakage 8:50 – The US's Immigration Issues its Southern Border 15:10 - Intervention in Haiti 22:05 - Russia-Ukraine War – the One Year Anniversary 25:50 - The Audit Process for Ukrainian Aid 30:31 - FOX and the Dominion Lawsuit Texts 35:00 - The Poorly Named Inflation Reduction Act This podcast was recorded on March 2, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Mar 6, 2023
44 min
The Never-Ending Confidential Documents File
Episode 36 returns to addressing the geopolitical topics of the day. The episode begins with a discussion of the document storage security breaches by various important US politicians, a story that is keeping cable television political commentators busy. Frank also addresses the topic du jour at this year's World Economic Forum, geo-economic fragmentation on the back of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, the declining relations between China, and tensions between the US and Europe over the US's generous subsidies for electric vehicles. We finish up in North America discussing infrastructure investing in Canada, and the US debt ceiling, including talk on Wall Street of a solution that allows debts to be paid to bondholders exclusively while the government works to solve the debate. Chapters 0:48 - Are All Document Breaches Created Equal? 11:15 - Geo-Economic Fragmentation 17:09 - Is Sending Tanks to Ukraine Crossing a Red Line? 21:31 - The Debt Ceiling and "Payment Prioritization" 25:40 - Will Canada Search for Partners for Infrastructure? This podcast was recorded on January 30, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Feb 1, 2023
34 min
10 Predictions for Geopolitics in 2023
The start of a new year is always a great time for predictions, so we decided to challenge Frank to provide his thoughts on ten of the most important geopolitical matters impacting Canada and the rest of the world order. Frank does not disappoint and while not everything you will hear in the next 45 minutes will make you smile, there is some glimmer of hope on the horizon for both politics and the economy. 1:33 - The War in Ukraine 7:53 -China and its Relations with the West 10:06 - The Next Country Threatening Global Unrest 12:10 - Can the Freedom Caucus be Tamed? 16:10 - Will Donald Trump be Indicted? 18:30 - Will Joe Biden Run Again in 2024? 23:52 - Trump's Competitors for Republican Leadership 26:05 - Will Poilievre Lead the Polls at the End of 2023? 32:17 - Is Elon Musk Lord Vader? 35:22 - The Alberta Election – Smith or Notley? This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2023. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this recording was obtained from publicly available sources, has not been independently verified by TD Securities, may not be current, and TD Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. All price references and market forecasts are as of the date of recording. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of TD Securities and may differ from the views and opinions of other departments or divisions of TD Securities and its affiliates. TD Securities is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell securities or any other product and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. Neither TD Securities nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Jan 9, 2023
46 min
Donald Trump and His Legal Woes
In Episode 34, Frank breaks down the legal woes of Donald Trump and is left to wonder "is it possible to be President of the United States while in jail?" Of all the cases in front of the former President, Frank thinks it might be the otherwise innocuous and strange situation of the Mar-a-logo documents that is Trump's biggest legal risk. Frank discusses the implications of a split Congress, indicating that this topic is top of mind with investors and corporate clients post the mid-term elections. He is watching the Georgia run-off for the 100th Senate seat very closely as a Democratic victory would reduce the influence of Joe Manchin and other senators at the end of the spectrum and would allow the Democrats greater control of Senate Committees. Turning to Canadian politics, Frank is not as sure as his colleague, The Honorable Rona Ambrose, that the new Premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, will win when the province goes to the polls next May. Chapter Headings 1:20 – The Number 1 Topic Dominating Frank's Investor and Corporate Conversations 4:30 – Donald Trump's Bad Month – What Legal Issue is Trump's Biggest Worry? 17:00 – Mid-Terms – Practical Implications of a Split Congress 24:55 – Frank vs Rona – Who Wins Alberta? 29:35 – Frank Remains Steadfast "There will NOT be a Windfall Tax on Oil and Gas" 33:50 – The New UK Government – Adults are Now in the Room This podcast was recorded on November 25, 2022. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-34. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Nov 29, 2022
44 min
Talking Canadian Politics with Rona Ambrose
Episode 33 of our monthly podcast series on Geopolitics is a special bonus for our listeners. In this episode, we listen in on a recent interview with The Honorable Rona Ambrose conducted at our 23rd Annual TD Securities Portfolio Management and Market Structure Conference held earlier this month. In this episode, Rona tackles several important topics on the minds of Canadians including the leadership race in her home province of Alberta and the 411 on the Federal Conservative Party's new leader Pierre Poilievre. While Rona's Conservative Party background differs from Frank McKenna's Liberal upbringing, the two former leaders and current TD Securities leaders have tremendous mutual respect. That said, we look forward getting Frank's take on Rona's view that both Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre are electable. This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2022. For relevant disclosures, visit: tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-33. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Nov 24, 2022
45 min
The UK's Lost Trusst in its Leader
In Episode 32, Frank addresses the rhetoric from Alberta's new Premier Danielle Smith who he believes will need to tone down the message in order to be electable next May. The theme of inflation is prevalent, with Frank touching on rising mortgage rates, OPEC's politically motivated decision to cut production and its impact on U.S. mid-terms and the mess caused by U.K. Prime Minister Truss' hugely inflationary and now unwound mini-budget. Frank admits that Russia-Ukraine is at a stalemate with no runway for an off ramp, as they head into winter. Despite all the negative press, Frank talks about his positive outlook on the world as whole, acting as a reminder to take a step back when we are overwhelmed by an endless stream of negative news headlines. Chapter Headings: The 411 on Danielle Smith (1:18) Will Rising Mortgage Rates Lead to a Housing Crisis? (9:40) OPEC's Politically Motivated Production Cut (13:34) US Mid-Terms (15:58) Liz Truss's Mess (21:10) Something Positive (31:20 This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2022. For relevant disclosures, visit: https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-32. To learn more about TD Securities, visit us at tdsecurities.com or follow us on LinkedIn @tdsecurities.
Oct 20, 2022
40 min
Russia's Nuclear Threat
In Episode 31, Frank and Peter catch up on world events, including the war in Ukraine and Putin's saber rattling over nuclear weapons, the changing political landscape in Europe and the U.K., the U.S. mid-terms and the Conservative Party's new leader in Canada. Frank provides a view from Cap Pele of the damage from Hurricane Fiona, which he considers to be the strongest storm to hit landfall in Canada in recorded history. He also shares his perspective on why U.S. leaders are unable to change the narrative on immigration -- from one of vitriol to one of need given changing demographics . Peter asks Frank his favourite fishing story from New Brunswick's famous Miramichi River and the two of them finish up with the Blue Jays as we head into the play-off run.
Sep 28, 2022
42 min
Poking the Bear
In Episode 30, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, examines geopolitical issues south of the 49th parallel, starting with Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan and the Chinese Government's reaction. Frank also touches on Merrick Garland's decision to search Former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence, and how it impacts Republican perception of the Department of Justice. In another take, while it was a good month for President Biden, Frank comments on whether those positive developments will move the needle on Biden's approval rating. Frank concludes the episode with an update on the abortion vote in Kansas, including a surprising stance in a traditionally red state.
Aug 23, 2022
37 min
A Three-Foot Putt
On Episode 29, we cover a wide range of topics, including the difficulties of air travel, and Canada's reputation for being one of the worst countries for delayed flights. Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, discusses the peaceful overthrow of the Government of Sri Lanka, and he reveals which emerging countries are on his watchlist for similar uprisings. Frank also discusses Boris Johnson's exit from UK politics, and his reaction to the Bank of Canada's move to increase interest rates by 100 basis points. Frank concludes the episode with an analysis of the January 6 hearings, including his thoughts on whether the Department of Justice will formally charge President Trump. Chapter Headings 1:55 – Summer & Air Travel Challenges 6:22 – Explaining A Three-Foot Putt 9:45 – The Implications of The Uprising in Sri Lanka 15:25 – Boris Johnson's Exit from UK Politics 19:20 – Will Trump be Charged? 21:20 – The Bank of Canada's Surprise Interest Rate Hike Disclaimer For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-29
Jul 27, 2022
30 min
War, Inflation and the Supreme Court
In this episode, Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair, TD Securities, takes aim at the highly politicized Supreme Court now that the Republicans are holding a supermajority. How will a very right-wing agenda of reforms to climate change, abortion, and gun laws sit with the majority of Americans, and what does it signal about the Supreme Court? In terms of recent updates on abortion laws, Frank does not believe President Biden's sliding ratings will change ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. Frank also addresses potential land mines that could be triggered in the Ukraine-Russia war, and he hints that Putin may end up backed into a corner, further complicating the situation. Frank concludes the episode by citing feedback from business leaders and politicians on the hot topic of inflation and the looming threat of a recession. Chapter Headings 2:21 – The Supreme Court and Roe v. Wade 15:50 – The Supreme Court and West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency 19:54 – Will the Supreme Court Help Biden's Popularity? 24:03 – Potential Land Mines in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict 29:10 – Will the Canadian Government Tax Excessive Profits in the Energy Sector? 35:52 – What are Business Leaders and Politicians Saying About Inflation? Disclaimer For relevant disclosures, visit https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/tds-geopolitics-episode-28
Jun 29, 2022
41 min
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