Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets. The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement? We’d like to hear ...
Jun 25
26 min
Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout. This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks se...
Jun 4
24 min
The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk, we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures. We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes. Across the pond, the ECB fi...
May 6
29 min
Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act? In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room to run? How could the news impact global growth and inflation? And what could it mean for central...
Apr 9
24 min
SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times. On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock? Simon also discusses the deeper inflationary and growth problem in the UK associated with a ratio...
Mar 11
27 min
Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives. The future of ECB President Lagarde has also been thrown in doubt following a FT report released last week, which sugge...
Feb 25
20 min
Following months of speculation, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been named as the next chair of the FOMC - how could his appointment impact US rates, Fed autonomy and the dollar? Meanwhile, the massive supermajority victory for Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi at the weekend’s election has triggered a sharp rebound in the yen - what has instigated the move? We also discuss the implications of the strong January nonfarm payrolls report. What does the data mean for the US labour market and...
Feb 12
19 min
The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why? The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervention from US and Japanese authorities to prop up the yen. Meanwhile, the race to be named the nex...
Jan 28
21 min
2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year? Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We also give our thoughts on the currencies that we think will over and underperform in the com...
Jan 14
24 min
The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026? Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meeting, despite the lack of data releases due to the US government shutdown. We give our thoughts ahe...
Dec 4, 2025
22 min
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