Liron and Producer Ori explore the community's feedback to Eliezer Yudkowsky's $10,000 debate against an anonymous AI director. Plus, we unpack Eliezer's new post on the "irretrievability" of ASI development, Anthropic feasting on xAI's compute, and Liron's 4x Kalshi bet on... Spencer Pratt.Timestamps00:00:00 — Welcome00:02:30 — The $10,000 Debate Post-Mortem00:06:01 — Paul Tudor Jones: “Zero Risk Management on AI”00:09:49 — Liron’s Jerry Springer Moment00:14:19 — Why Yud Wore Steampunk00:20:19 — YouTube Reacts: “Five Minutes In, Already Unhinged”00:27:19 — 47F’s Anti-Disparagement Legal Theory00:32:18 — Yud Wants Round 200:35:37 — Lumpin Space, Ben Goertzel & Early AI Safety Memories00:47:06 — Eliezer’s “Irretrievability” Post00:56:35 — The Maginot Line and Murphy’s Curse01:08:13 — Blockchain vs AI: Earth’s Compute Swing01:15:15 — Anthropic Eats Elon’s Compute01:25:29 — Is Elon Tweeting as His Own Mom?01:30:03 — Waymo Dodges a Fallen Scooter Rider01:33:00 — Why Liron Bet on Spencer Pratt01:37:13 — Live Twitter Scroll!01:38:11 — Mira Murati: “Directionally Very Bad”01:50:07 — AI Copies Itself Across Servers01:56:44 — Steven Byrnes: LLMs Aren’t the Final Paradigm02:07:55 — Wrap-UpLinksLessOnline 2026 (June 5-7, Berkeley, CA) — https://less.online/Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (LessWrong, May 4, 2026) —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrz9xhKpEeTKw5zL/irretrievability-or-murphy-s-curse-of-oneshotness-upon-asiAnthropic, SpaceX announce Colossus 1 compute deal (CNBC) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/anthropic-spacex-data-center-capacity.htmlSpaceXAI announcement: Compute partnership with Anthropic — https://x.ai/news/anthropic-compute-partnershipKalshi: Spencer Pratt LA Mayor market — https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayorla/la/kxmayorla-26Morris worm — Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_wormDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Claude, also known as @lumpenspace on X, is a prominent AI accelerationist. He gives humanity a 30% chance of being superseded by superintelligence, and he’s fine with it! We unpack his lattice of beliefs, and pinpoint the cruxes of our disagreement on the orthogonality thesis and the capabilities of superintelligence.Lumpenspace’s appearance comes after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at Sam Altman’s house, an act that he and I completely condemn.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:57 — Introducing Lumpenspace00:03:46 — Is Lumpenspace Team Beff Jezos?00:04:26 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™00:06:28 — Worthy Successors & the Transhumanist Door00:08:29 — The Orthogonality Thesis: Our Core Disagreement00:15:14 — The Universality Threshold & David Deutsch00:19:22 — Paperclips Won’t Happen Because “It’s Boring”00:27:23 — Natural Selection vs Human Engineering00:36:26 — Nanobots: Can ASI Build Them Unseen?00:46:49 — Identifying the Cruxes of Disagreement00:55:01 — Closing StatementsLinksFollow Lumpenspace — https://x.com/lumpenspaceDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

📢 BREAKING: A man known only as "@47fucb4r8c69323" just paid Eliezer Yudkowsky $10,000 to have a raw, uncut, public debate on my YouTube channel!Tensions run high as 47f confronts Eliezer about his "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" rhetoric, warning it could incite unstable individuals to harm AI researchers and their families, while Eliezer maintains that the possibility of extinction from superintelligent AI is too high to *not* speak out about.They also clash over whether we truly understand how LLMs work. Yudkowsky highlights the lack of extracted algorithms that explain their qualitative intelligence, while 47f dismisses these concerns as a fundamental misunderstanding of how text modeling works.While this may not be the highest quality debate I’ve ever hosted, I hope it’s a step toward more attention and public discourse on this urgent, high-stakes topic.P.S. Please consider supporting my work with a tax-deductible donation. Read more… Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Livestream with Producer Ori covering Eliezer Yudkowsky's next BIG debate, why $GOOG is such a steal at $4T, and what's going down on AI twitter.Timestamps00:00:00 — Kicking off the Livestream00:06:08 — Eliezer Yudkowsky Debate Announcement00:13:17 — Who’s Yudkowsky’s Debate Challenger?00:25:32 — METR’s Capability Extrapolation Came True00:28:25 — Google: The Big Rally I Called00:33:06 — The Federal Reserve’s Extinction Chart00:36:06 — Liron’s Private Market Alpha Strategy00:40:35 — The Quadrillion-Dollar Economy00:47:54 — Bernie Sanders Gets It00:53:11 — Is Anthropic a Good Investment?01:07:42 — The Goblin Discourse01:10:52 — Codex, Claude Code & Live Coding Demo01:28:48 — Wrap-UpLinksYudkowsky debate announcement: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035001203229010Liron's Yudkowsky interview: https://x.com/liron/status/2050035003900223770METR capability extrapolation: https://x.com/nikolaj2030/status/2050276020146880661Bernie Sanders on AI risk: https://x.com/SenSanders/status/2048107882760085618Federal Reserve extinction chart: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0624Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Justin Helps is the science educator behind ⁨Primer Learning with 2M subscribers. We cover how he got into AI safety, debate AGI timelines, and why he calculates p(doom) to be 70% by 2100 😱.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:38 — Introducing Justin Helps00:02:03 — What's Your P(Doom)?™00:03:38 — Justin's First Exposure to AI X-Risk00:04:49 — Major Disagreements with Eliezer Yudkowsky00:09:46 — Debating the Timeline to AGI00:12:24 — Metaculus Prediction Market Estimates AGI by 203200:20:06 — Misguided Conceptions of AI's Limitations00:25:23 — Only a 5% P(Doom) by 204000:28:40 — AIs Will Not Care About the Human Species00:31:00 — Summarizing Justin's Position So Far00:36:17 — High P(Doom), but We're Not Depressed00:40:14 — Justin's "Computer Man" Thought Experiment00:51:16 — Should We Pause AGI Development?00:54:15 — AI Doom Is a Serious ConcernLinksPrimer’s Video on AI Doom — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5QXY_qZuIPrimer on YouTube — https://youtube.com/@PrimerBlobsPrimer’s Website — https://primerlearning.org/Justin Helps on X — https://x.com/HelpsypooHarry Potter and the Methods of Rationality — https://hpmor.com/Feeling Rational by Eliezer Yudkowsky —https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqF8cHjJv43mvJJzx/feeling-rationalPause AI — https://pauseai.infoDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Multiple live callers join this month's Q&A as I react to Dwarkesh Patel's $20K blog prize, debate the orthogonality thesis from first principles, and welcome Bernie Sanders aboard the Doom Train.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:01:00 — Welcome to Doom Debates Live!00:01:30 — What Do You Think of Open Source Models Out-Benchmarking OpenAI and Anthropic?00:04:55 — Michael Cheers Joins: What If We Don't Give AIs Full Situational Awareness?00:11:55 — Thoughts on Mythos' Hacking Abilities?00:15:43 — Liron Reacts to Dwarkesh Patel's $20K AI Questions00:23:28 — Pretraining Goals vs RL Training Goals00:28:58 — Mental Model of Yudkowsky-ians & the IABIED Claim00:37:24 — You Can't Hide Reality from a Superintelligence (The Truman Show Analogy)00:42:57 — Back to Dwarkesh's Questions: When Do AI Labs Start Making Money?00:48:50 — Upcoming Guests Reveal!00:51:35 — Will Lancer Joins: Is The Yudkowskian Thesis Credible?01:27:03 — Back to Answering Questions from the Chat01:33:28 — The Cameraman Always Survives Analogy01:40:52 — Liron's Banger Response to Roon's Tweet01:47:00 — Nuance About Pausing AI Development01:50:57 — Capitalism Isn't Going to Steer Us to an Alignment Solution01:53:10 — Is Optimization Equivalent to Intelligence?01:57:21 — BREAKING: Bernie Sanders on the Existential Threat of AI02:01:12 — Spoiler for the Upcoming Mike Israetel Episode02:01:57 — $500 Bet on AI Unemployment02:05:46 — Misuse, Surveillance, and the Real Costs of Pausing AI02:11:04 — Wrap-UpLinksNick Bostrom, Deep Utopia: Life and Meaning in a Solved World (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Utopia-Meaning-Solved-World/dp/1646871642Yudkowsky & Soares, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (book) — https://www.amazon.com/If-Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies/dp/0316571253Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Emad Mostaque helped kick off the modern AI revolution as the head of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion. Unlike most AI CEOs, he doesn't sugarcoat the risks of AGI development.He explains his 50% P(Doom), why we have less than 1,000 days to get our act together, and how his new startup, Intelligent Internet, aims to be a countervailing force against doom of all kinds.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:39 — Introducing Emad Mostaque00:02:08 — How Emad Got Involved in AI Development00:05:46 — The 60-Second Pitch for Intelligent Internet00:09:29 — What’s Your P(Doom)?™00:13:32 — Why ASI Doesn’t Need Massive Compute00:15:56 — AGI Timelines: Cognitive Labor Going to Zero00:17:29 — Is There a Ceiling Above Human Intelligence?00:41:22 — Corporations as Slow, Dumb AIs00:50:19 — Emad’s Mainline Doom Scenario00:55:28 — Jailbreaks and “Mecha-Hitler” Latent Spaces00:59:56 — The Last Economy: How to Navigate Economic Doom01:08:57 — The Coming Unemployment Spike01:15:13 — Why Isn’t Google Stock Mooning?01:25:05 — Intelligent Internet as a Solution: Bitcoin for the Intelligence Age01:33:13 — Can an Aligned Network Stop a Rogue ASI?01:36:20 — Is the Pause AI Proposal Too Late?01:40:50 — Are We Facing Russian Roulette Odds with AI?01:42:29 — Wrap-UpLinksEmad Mostaque, The Last Economy (Amazon) — https://www.amazon.com/Last-Economy-Guide-Intelligent-Economics/dp/103693411XIntelligent Internet (ii.inc) —https://ii.incEmad Mostaque, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_MostaqueEmad Mostaque on X — https://x.com/EMostaquePause Giant AI Experiments open letter (Future of Life Institute) — https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

My guest, John Alioto, is an independent AI engineer with a computer science degree from UC Berkeley and 25 years building real-world AI systems at companies like Microsoft and Google.In the wake of an attack on Sam Altman’s property, John Alioto came on the show to argue that Yudkowsky’s words are violent rhetoric that helped create this moment. Since I completely disagree with that characterization, we had a lot of fuel for a passionate debate.For the record, here’s my position on why AI doomers are NOT “calling for violence”:Are we acting like we actually think there’s an urgent extinction risk? Yes.Are we calling for lawless violence? Absolutely not. At least not me, or the leaders of the movement, or anyone I’ve ever personally interacted with.Are we calling for violence as a last resort if a government policy has been established and then egregiously violated? Yes… but that’s just standard for any governance proposal! A proposal for a strictly enforced treaty isn’t a call for violence — it’s a call for doing everything we can to make sure no one breaks the treaty, with zero violence, unless rogue actors decide to break the treaty and bring the consequences on themselves.Thanks to John for having an extremely respectful and good-faith debate on this heated subject.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:37 — Introducing John Alioto00:03:02 — Setting the Stage: Recent Acts of Violence & AI Discourse00:05:53 — Eliezer Yudkowsky's 2023 TIME Article00:11:16 — John's Two-Part Argument00:14:37 — Conditional on High P(Doom), Is Eliezer's Policy Bad?00:17:46 — Be Like Carl Sagan — Win in the Arena of Ideas00:21:12 — No Carve-Outs for Non-Signatories00:26:15 — Hypothetical: What If the UN Voted for a Treaty?00:30:46 — What's the Correct Interpretation of Eliezer's TIME Article?00:32:42 — Liron's Interpretation: Same Structure as Any International Law Proposal00:42:23 — What Should Eliezer Have Written? "Airstrikes" vs "Strong Deterrent"00:49:57 — How John Would Rewrite the TIME Piece00:50:54 — Carve-Outs: Allies, Civilians, Consequences00:52:52 — Debate Wrap-Up00:56:27 — Last Q: Does High P(Doom) Imply Violence?00:59:40 — Closing ThoughtsLinksJohn P. Alioto on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/jpaliotoEliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time Magazine, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

Are AI safety advocates like Eliezer Yudkowsky at fault for the recent attacks on Sam Altman because they are “calling for violence”?I invited Steven Balik to join me on this emergency episode to hash it out.Steven is an activist short seller and data engineering professional whose Substack is popular among Silicon Valley VCs and hedge funds.LinksSteven Balik on X (Twitter) — https://x.com/laurenbalikSteven Balik, “The Talmudic Stock Bubble, AI Psychosis, & Esoterrorism” (Substack, October 2025) — https://laurenbaliksalmanacandrevue.substack.com/p/the-talmudic-stock-bubble-ai-psychosisEliezer Yudkowsky, “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down” (Time, March 2023) — https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:00:52 — Introducing Steven Balik00:01:24 — Setting the Stage: Molotov Cocktail Incident00:03:31 — Steven’s Opening Position00:06:10 — Is Eliezer Yudkowsky “Calling for Violence”?00:07:25 — Steven on AI, Yudkowsky, the Zizians & Escalating Rhetoric00:12:16 — Focusing on the Time Article00:18:51 — Who’s Responsible for the Violence?00:25:33 — Debating the Key Quote in Yudkowsky’s Time Article00:31:07 — Liron Passes the Ideological Turing Test00:45:42 — Liron & Steven Find Common Ground00:46:57 — Why Does Steven Call Eliezer Yudkowsky an “Esoterrorist”?00:48:51 — Wrapping Up: Deescalating the SituationDoom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe

The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist could become the most important movie of our generation. It’s a new film from the producers of the Oscar-winning Everything Everywhere All at Once.Tristan Harris is a subject in the film who is well-known for his role in Netflix's The Social Dilemma. He is the co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology.Ted Tremper is a producer on the film who is the interim Executive Director of the Creators' Coalition on AI.Timestamps00:00:00 — Cold Open00:01:20 — Introducing Tristan Harris and Ted Tremper00:04:31 — The Genesis of The AI Doc00:12:48 — Tristan’s Journey From Social Media to AI00:14:30 — Updating From AI Skeptic to AI Risk Aware00:20:31 — How They Convinced the AI CEOs to Agree to be Interviewed00:28:58 — Ted’s Journalism Advice, Working on Borat Subsequent Moviefilm00:30:37 — Tristan, What’s Your P(Doom)™?00:34:30 — The Resource Curse: What AI Revenue Does to a Society00:44:10 — Ted, What’s Your P(Doom)™?00:46:34 — Reacting to Demis Hassabis Statement that AGI Development Is Inevitable00:49:52 — Liron Sharpens the Criticism Towards AGI Builders00:55:35 — AGI Developers Claim to Want International Cooperation, But Have They Really Tried?01:04:30 — What Should Be the Single Takeaway for Concerned Viewers?01:11:40 — Building a Coalition Against Superintelligence Development: From Bernie to Bannon01:19:52 — Take Action at TheAIDocGetInvolved.com01:24:40 — Tristan’s Closing Message: We’ve Done This BeforeLinksWatch The AI Doc — https://www.focusfeatures.com/the-ai-doc-or-how-i-became-an-apocaloptimistGet Involved with The AI Doc Community — https://theaidocgetinvolved.com/Tristan Harris, Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_HarrisTed Tremper, IMDb — https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3998229/Center for Humane Technology — https://www.humanetech.com/“The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine — https://intelligence-curse.ai/Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates, or to really take things to the next level: Donate 🙏 Get full access to Doom Debates at lironshapira.substack.com/subscribe