PE11: Exponential trend percentiles on gold price from Crypto Voices

PE11: Exponential trend percentiles on gold price

27 minutes Posted Jan 23, 2023 at 8:37 pm.

Intro

Gold fits exponential trendline (75% R-squared)

'Brown's Bottom'

Exponential regression trendline

Standard deviation basics

Exponential regression trendline

One sigma around trendline (66th percentile)

Two sigma around trendline (95th percentile)

Log scale

Gold price suppression?

Compound annual growth rate of gold price (7.7%)

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Show notes

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/

Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/

This is the eleventh video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.

Contents

Here we run and explain an exponential trendline over the last 50+ years of gold price data, and run percentile bands (standard deviations) around the regression.

Coefficients:

y = a * EXP (b * x)

y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x)

y = 133 * EXP (0.41% * x)

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Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

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