The Hormuz crisis entered new territory this week. AIS vessel-tracking data from MarineTraffic confirmed what many had feared was approaching: commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero. Not diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Not delayed. Zero transits in the past twenty-four hours. The strait that normally moves approximately twenty percent of the world’s seaborne oil — along with disproportionately large shares of LNG, petrochemicals, and refined products — has gone completely dark for commercial shipping.

This week, one of the most significant institutional developments of the Hormuz crisis arrived not with a missile strike or a diplomatic announcement — but with a formal letter. On April 28th, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC-plus alliance, effective today, May 1st. The UAE joined the organization in 1967. It has now left. The country produces roughly three and ahalf million barrels per day and represented approximately twelve percent of OPEC’s total output. The stated reason: a sovereign strategic choice to pursue its own production ambitions free of cartel constraints — a tension that hasbeen building for years but was accelerated by the Hormuz crisis and the UAE’s own experience of being attacked by Iran during the conflict. We’ll have more on what this means for oil markets in the energy section.

The Strait of Hormuz stalemate is now entering its ninth week, and the numbers are becoming staggering. Thirteen million barrels per day remain shut in. Cumulative supply losses have now surpassed six hundred and fifty million barrels — roughly seven days of total global consumption, gone from the market since the conflict began. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two vessels this week, following attacks on three ships in the strait, a sharp escalation that underscored how far the situation is from any practical resolution.

If last week was the ceasefire that wasn’t, this week was the reopening that wasn’t. The U.S. Navy opened the week by announcing a blockade of Iranian ports and mine-clearing operations in the Strait. Oil rebounded sharply — Brent pushed back toward $99 — as the Islamabad talks between U.S. and Iranian officials collapsed midweek and the supply disruption narrative hardened.

This week’s commodity story came in two acts.Act one: Wednesday, April 8th. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with Tehran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a condition. Act two: the breakdown. The ceasefire began unraveling almost immediately. Pakistan’s Prime Minister announced it covered all fronts including Lebanon — Trump and Netanyahu disagreed publicly. Iran announced tolls of more than one million dollars per ship through the Strait.

This was the week the Iran war moved from a supply shock to something closer to an existential market event. Four things happened, and every one of them lands on Monday. April 6th is shaping up to be one of the more consequential market opens in recent memory.

This week’s commodity story came down to three data points, and none of them were bullish for a resolution. Iran’s IRGC turned back two Chinese-flagged vessels — CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean — owned by China’s state shipping giant, less than 48 hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly promised safe passage to ships from five friendly nations, China among them. That promise lasted two days. Washington postponed — again. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants, pushing the threat out to April 6th. And finally, White House proposals went nowhere.

Commodity markets were driven by one overwhelming reality this week: the Middle East conflict moved from a war narrative to an energy system story. After earlier strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the week was defined by the widening fallout — attacks spread across major oil and gas sites in the Gulf, Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, and the commercial viability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became a daily question rather than a tail risk.

This week, commodity markets traded under the shadow of a single question: what happens if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a battlefield? After last week’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the story shifted from the initial shock to the consequences. Through the week, Iran stepped up threats against shipping lanes in the Gulf while the U.S. and its allies moved additional naval assets into the region, forcing energy markets to constantly reassess the risk of supply disruption.

The commodity complex was thrown into one of the most geopolitically charged environments we’ve seen in years this week. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets escalated tensions across the Middle East and immediately forced markets to reprice risk. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves—saw shipping slow dramatically, with insurers pulling coverage and tanker traffic collapsing as the region turned into a conflict zone.