On 2 April 2022, Australia and India signed the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (AI ECTA), after more than ten years of negotiations.  In this event, Dr Jeffrey Wilson, one of Australia’s pre-eminent trade and investment policy experts, provides his analysis on the prospects for the new agreement to move the dial in the economic relationship. Despite strong historical and cultural ties, India has long underperformed as an economic partner for Australia. This has been due to a lack of complementarities between the two economies; differing economic strategies, and the legacy of past business experience. The Australian Government’s goal is to make India a top three export market by 2035, and third largest destination in Asia for outbound investment. A key driver for this ambition is the risk posed by Australia’s strong reliance on trade with China during an era of geopolitical uncertainty. India provides an opportunity to diversify our trade as the “world’s fastest growing major economy”. But how can this agenda be realised given past experience, and how can we leverage the free trade agreement for developing new economic ties?

At our March event, Professor Peter Newman AO, an author of the next IPCC mitigation report, showed how producing solar energy and green hydrogen is likely to transform Western Australia’s economy in a geopolitically significant way.  The slides used in this presentation can be downloaded here The existing geopolitical order of manufacturing was based firstly in places near coal in Europe and America and then to wherever coal and gas could be shipped easily. That world is changing. Solar and wind energy are now cheaper than any other form of power and it is needed for all parts of the zero carbon economy. Solar and wind-based electricity are needed to make Green Hydrogen which is the only real option to decarbonise process industries. Thus solar power and hydrogen will be the basis of processing minerals and hence down-stream manufacturing. Hydrogen is fundamentally difficult to store and shipping will be extremely expensive.  This is a thermodynamic necessity with geopolitical implications. The world will move towards the production of solar power and green hydrogen near to where minerals are mined. WA has huge potential to generate solar and wind power in regional areas near mineral deposits required for this new zero carbon economy.  Solar and wind are already being procured for local mining and in the production of Green Hydrogen for use locally. This shift in geopolitics needs to be understood.  Professor Newman will show how Western Australia could become a major source of processed minerals (green steel and green aluminium), food products, and even manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles. The potential to transform our economy from that of a primary commodities exporter to that of a high quality zero carbon producer will need a completely new set of partnerships between governments and industry.

To start our 2022 program, the WA Branch of the Australian Institute of International Affairs hosted a discussion with Ian Kortlang who reflected on his 50 year career in the making of Australian foreign and domestic policy.  From his first deployment to Vietnam in 1970 as an officer in the Australian Army to diplomatic postings in Asia, Africa and Europe, to senior domestic advisory roles in State and Federal politics and a long  - and still ongoing - successful career as a political strategist for domestic and international clients, Kort has had a unique vantage point from which to observe how Australian domestic politics has intersected with its foreign policy evolution.  During the discussion, in the form of Q and A with AIIA WA President, Brendan Augustin, he will share his firsthand political insider insights of this interplay, including letting us have a glimpse into how domestic policy battles can influence Australia’s international relations – and its reputation

At our traditional Christmas event we were pleased to have John R Goodlad as our end-of-year speaker.  In this special lecture, John took his lead from the Ian Drury and the Blockheads song “Reasons to be Cheerful” expanded on what is going right in the world as we enter 2022.  John reflected on noteworthy positive developments to show that it is not all darkness and gloom when it comes to international relations.     John is our Immediate Past President and was a Member of the National Committee of the AIIA for 9 years. He has represented the Institute on various occasions including a lecture at NATO Headquarters,  leading a delegation to the Republic of Korea and participation in at the second track Australia-New Zealand/ASEAN talks in Kuala Lumpur in 2019. He is a former Australian diplomat who served in Thailand and Indonesia and he has a keen interest in the immediate region and Australia’s place in the world. John is the Honorary Consul for Colombia in Western Australia and is on the Committee of the Consular Corps of WA Inc. John is also a Master of International Law from the Australian National University.  He speaks fluent Thai and Indonesian, and some Mandarin, French and Spanish.

At our October event, Dr Jie Chen reviewed the tumultuous political transformation of Hong Kong after the 1997 handover from Britain to China.  While Deng Xiaoping had pledged “one country, two systems” for the governance of the former British colony, the implementation of the principle was always lopsided. For example, the central government failed to honour the promise of universal  suffrage for both Chief Executive and Legislative Council.  Popular dissatisfaction, particularly manifest in the Umbrella Movement of 2014 and anti-extradition protests in 2019, triggered systematic and brutal crackdowns by the Xi Jinping leadership and led to the imposition of the National Security Law in 2020. This presentation explains why Beijing’s approach has shifted from a relatively liberal policy towards a vehement existential assault on democratic institutions, civil society and rule of law – celebrated by mainland patriots as the achievement of the “real return” of Hong Kong. The presentation ended with some comments on Hong Kong’s future including the struggle of what remains of the democracy movement.

On 16 September the leaders of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced the creation of an enhanced trilateral security partnership called “AUKUS”.  Through AUKUS, the three governments reinforced their commitment to support each other’s security and defense interests; and as its first initiative the three leaders committed to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. In the minutes, hours and days that followed governments, the press and commentators from around the world have been reacting to this announcement, which some have characterised as the most important defence and security policy decision Australia has made in over 50 years. Rarely – if ever - has an Australian policy decision received such global attention. France, whose contract to supply Australia non-nuclear-powered submarines was cancelled, has reacted strongly and is rallying its European neighbours to its cause. China and other regional countries, such as Malaysia, have warned that the decision could create a new arms race in the Indo-Pacific. Commentators are making assessments of what this means for the United States’ posture in the Indo-Pacific; its relations with China; and its ability devote increasingly scarce diplomatic and military resources to other regions such as the Middle East and Europe. During this Webinar, moderated by the new President of AIIA WA, Brendan Augustin, our distinguished panel share their views on the rationale for this historic announcement and the possible ramifications for Australia, our region and the world.

The internet was not designed with security in mind.  People with malicious intent are taking full advantage of its openness to disrupt the activities of individuals, enterprises, and states.  It is assumed that the cyber attack on the Australian Parliament House in March came from a state-based actor.  There has also been a recent surge in cyber incidents in the healthcare sector. Cyber criminals understand that this sector is a vulnerable pressure point and hospitals hit by ransomware attacks have had to part with significant sums of money.  Nation states have also paid millions in ransomware attacks in 2021 alone.  With other forms of cybercrime, the stakes can be far higher.  Cyber attacks on military hardware such as unmanned aerial vehicles, could have decisive impacts on military engagements.  So clearly, cybersecurity has implications for international relations. In this talk, Dr. Ahmed will focus on how easy it is to launch cyber attacks, Australia's stance on cyber security, and what individuals can do to ensure cyber safety.

Innovative technological advances, new space actors, and ambitious strategies have drawn increasing attention to space and space-related activities. In Australia, focus has been sharpened further with the establishment of the Australian Space Agency and publication of the Australian Civil Space Strategy 2019-2028. Effective space governance is critical if we are to achieve our strategic goals and advance space-related activities in secure, safe, and sustainable ways. Australia has reformed its domestic space legislation, and other nations have also adopted laws that support their national agenda, but more harmonised approaches are needed to avoid potential risks and conflicts. International law has a potential role to play, yet the five international space treaties were adopted decades ago, and have since been supplemented with soft law and transnational arrangements. Furthermore, governance gaps remain as we seek to engage in commercial activities in space and consider possibilities such as living and working in space. In this podcast, Erika Techera discusses the space law and governance landscape, highlights national legislative and strategic developments, and explores some areas for future development.

A commitment to democratic values is becoming a new organising principle in international affairs. Major military (eg NATO), economic (eg OECD) and security (eg the Quad) groupings are increasingly promoted as alliances of liberal democracies, over and above their original core purpose. The Biden administration is planning a “Summit of Democracy” as it seeks to rebuild faith in the US-led order and its global alliances, while the UK has proposed expanding the G7 into a “D (democratic) 10”. The Australian government is a vocal supporter of this trend, arguing that the world is “increasingly polarised between autocracies and liberal democracies” and advocating “a world order that favours freedom”. This presentation examines this new framing of the international order, and its consequences for Australia’s relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. Does this new rhetoric suggest a shift in Australia’s traditionally “realist internationalist” foreign policy towards a more “liberal internationalist” model, where we will actively seek to promote democracy and the values of liberalism globally?

After drug trafficking and weapons smuggling, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates human trafficking to be the third most profitable illegal business in the world.  In many countries, it is the most profitable.  The International Labour Organisation estimates the annual profits to be US$34.6 billion globally, devastating the lives of around 21 million people including 5.5 million children. Human trafficking is on the increase.  It occurs in Australia and the risk of Australians abroad being trafficked is increasing.  At our March event, Chris Douglas will discuss the scope and scale of human trafficking, how it works, who is at risk (and how), and international and Australian efforts to prevent it.