If/Then
If/Then
Stanford GSB
How do we lead with purpose, make better decisions, and navigate an uncertain future? On If/Then, Stanford GSB faculty break down cutting-edge research on leadership, strategy, and more, exploring enduring questions and the forces reshaping business and society today, from AI to geopolitics. Hosted by senior editor Kevin Cool.
What AI Can’t Do — And Why
“Humans manage to do so much with surprisingly little,” says Douglas Guilbeault, an assistant professor of organizational behavior at Stanford Graduate School of Business. “Whereas AI, by comparison, is doing relatively little, but with so much power, so much compute, so many resources, and by comparison, relatively fewer constraints.”On a bonus episode of the If/Then podcast, Guilbeault describes the implications of his recent work. Although he readily acknowledges that AI is “increasingly able to do quite a lot,” Guilbeault and his colleagues believe they have identified a key principle that distinguishes human intelligence from machine intelligence — and one which illuminates the limitations of machine thinking. Although some researchers and AI boosters believe both humans and AI learn via optimization, Guilbeault and his colleagues have shown that another process more accurately captures how people distill the seemingly infinite complexity of the world and act based on limited information. “You encounter a lot of noise, a lot of chaos, a lot of randomness,” Guilbeault says. “We somehow figure out how to make meaning and establish strong understandings from within that.”What limitations have you encountered in your work with AI? Share your story with us at [email protected] Content:Douglas Guilbeault faculty profileRead "A Simple Threshold Captures the Social Learning of Conventions" hereChapters:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:40 Why human learning matters for AI00:05:03 Satisficing and the limits of optimization00:06:41 Why LLMs learn differently from humans00:09:58 The stakes of AI hype00:13:11 “Humanity has had a good run”00:15:19 Intuition, insight, & conceptual leaps00:17:38 Beyond statistics: metaphor, vibes, & reasoning00:19:39 A simple rule for social learning00:21:18 Is there a ceiling for AI?00:23:00 Randomness, disorder, & the path to insight00:25:00 What an optimization mindset leaves out00:27:54 Conclusion If/Then, from Stanford GSB, features conversations with faculty that explore how their research deepens our understanding of business and leadership. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Jun 25
28 min
Our AI Future: From Abundance to Apocalypse
Abundance, anyone? While the risks posed by artificial intelligence are extraordinary, so is the potential, says professor of economics Chad Jones.
Jun 10
45 min
The Art of Friction
“Great leaders are people who think of themselves as trustees of other people’s time,” says Huggy Rao.
May 20
23 min
Unconventional Wisdom
Seeing the world differently can be costly, but it can also provide a competitive edge.
May 6
26 min
Why Who You Are Affects How You Think
The moment we see someone as an individual rather than a category, we become more likely to find common ground.
Apr 22
24 min
The Paradox of Masculinity
“We spend a lot of time talking about gender inequality through the lens of women’s disadvantage,” she says. “I think that many of the problems that we’re seeing today… are actually bound up in masculinity.”
Apr 8
26 min
What We Actually Learn From Experience
Steven Callander has spent years building a mathematical framework to answer the question of how people learn from experience. “Here in Silicon Valley, the expression that you learn from failure is very widespread and very intuitive. But the question is… what do you learn? How do you optimally learn from that experience?”In this episode, Callander, the Herbert Hoover Professor of Public and Private Management and Professor of Political Economy at Stanford Graduate School of Business, explains the hidden, deceptively simple logic of correlated learning — and it may change how you think about finding the right job, the right market, or the right strategy. “It fascinates me and I can't stop thinking about it,” he says.  Has theory made an impact on your life? Tell us more at [email protected] Content:Steven Callander faculty profileHow to Turn Old Ideas Into Creative Solutions to Modern ProblemsWhat We’re Still Learning from Silicon Valley’s Bank CollapseChapters:00:00 Ann Miura-Ko on learning and the search for patterns in Venture capital02:51 Introduction05:23 What is correlated learning?06:40 Where does this research apply in the real world?09:28 Brownian Motion12:45 Steven Callander’s Framework15:25 Examples of correlated learning when seeking expert advice20:53 Applying correlated learning23:57 Why correlated learning research?24:51 ConclusionIf/Then, from Stanford GSB, features conversations with faculty that explore how their research deepens our understanding of business and leadership. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Mar 25
25 min
How Dating and Sports Explain the Job Market
Seemingly unrelated activities — like taking a soccer penalty kick or crafting an online dating profile — involve an embedded economics.
Mar 11
25 min
If/Then Returns: Season Three
If/Then Season 3 is coming next week. GSB faculty explore innovative research that deepens our understanding of business and leadership.
Mar 4
1 min
GSB at 100: "The Moment"
The fourth and final episode of GSB at 100 captures a snapshot of a once-in-a-century milestone.
Dec 22, 2025
28 min
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