Stijn Schmitz welcomes Simon Hunt to the show. Simon Hunt is Consultant on the Global Economy, China, and the Copper Industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran’s demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July. This supply crunch, he argues, makes a global recession nearly certain by year-end, deepening significantly in the following year. The conversation shifts to China’s strategic positioning. Hunt notes that China anticipated American geopolitical moves and has diversified its energy sources through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside massive domestic coal and renewable capacity. This allows China to withstand the Hormuz closure indefinitely, unlike Western nations. The discussion then turns to the evolving global monetary order, where Hunt describes a BRICS-led effort to create a multipolar system anchored in physical gold. He details China’s construction of Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, enabling trade settlement in non-G7 currencies convertible to gold. While he sees gold prices reaching double-digit thousands in five years, he cautions that America is unlikely to revalue its gold reserves and warns of potential government confiscation during crises. On commodities, Hunt challenges the prevailing supercycle narrative, calling it premature. He predicts that a deep recession will cause physical demand to collapse, outweighing current supply constraints. He specifically highlights copper, noting that NVIDIA’s shift to photonics could eliminate copper from data centers by 2028, undermining a key demand thesis. Strategic stockpiling of critical minerals by governments will eventually follow, but processing capacity remains a bottleneck controlled by China. The episode concludes with Hunt emphasizing gold as the ultimate safe haven in an unstable world, advising listeners to hold it outside the banking system.