Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Doug is a Retired U.S. Army Colonel and Decorated Combat Veteran. He offers a stark assessment that the Middle East conflict is fundamentally a Jewish war with no vital strategic interest for the United States, describing it as already regional and increasingly merging with other global flashpoints. He argues that the recent halt in hostilities is merely a pause, not a resolution, as no underlying issues have been settled. The conversation highlights how three conflicts—Ukraine, the Gulf region, and the cold war with China—are converging into a larger, dangerous alignment of Russia, China, and Iran against US and Israeli interests. Macgregor warns that Iran has effectively weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential Houthi blockade could cripple Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil, threatening the existence of Gulf states unless they expel American forces. He contends that the US has been militarily defeated by Iran’s strategic use of new technology and space-based surveillance, yet political pressure from Zionist billionaires and the Israel lobby prevents President Trump from disengaging. This dynamic, he argues, will likely restart the bombing campaigns. The discussion shifts to the profound economic implications, with Macgregor predicting severe market fragility, potential bank runs, and even a depression. Against this backdrop, he sees gold becoming more valuable than ever, propelled by central bank buying, de-dollarization, and monstrous US debt. He cites predictions of gold reaching $13,000 to $15,000 per ounce, possibly sooner than 2031 if conflict reignites. Macgregor reveals his personal investment philosophy of holding cash and precious metals exclusively, emulating J.D. Rockefeller’s strategy of maintaining liquidity to capitalize on distressed opportunities. He praises Palisades Goldcorp for its strong cash position and strategic investments in gold, uranium, and other critical minerals, positioning it for substantial upside in a deteriorating global economy. He concludes by emphasizing the decline of US hegemony and the urgent, yet ignored, need to accept a new world order. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:22 – Israel Iran Conflict Update 00:03:02 – Three Merging Global Conflicts 00:09:08 – China Cold War Risks 00:12:28 – Houthi Implications 00:14:30 – A Jewish War 00:23:36 – Conflicts & Impacts on Oil 00:30:44 – Joining Palisades Gold Board 00:32:37 – Gold Price Predictions 2031 00:38:12 – Gold Vs. Aliens/Other Commodities 00:44:41 – Doug’s Personal Finance Strategy 00:48:09 – Wrap Up and Resources Guest Links: Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/ Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant. Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia. Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew. In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces. Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Martin Armstrong to the show. Martin Armstrong is CEO and Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. Martin argues that the conflict with Iran was a strategic miscalculation driven by Neocons and Benjamin Netanyahu’s flawed strategy of decapitation leadership, which historically never works. Contrary to assumptions, Iran is highly organized, has planned for this war for a decade, and is playing “3D chess” by targeting the Gulf states’ financial stability through attacks on Dubai and by threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy is designed not just to raise oil prices but to trigger a sovereign debt crisis in the Gulf, which took on massive debts when oil prices collapsed during COVID. Armstrong connects this to the Ukraine conflict, where he describes Volodymyr Zelensky as deliberately escalating to draw NATO into a broader war, attacking Russian energy facilities and Iranian ships to merge the two conflicts. This geopolitical turmoil is occurring amid a steep global recession expected to bottom between 2026 and 2028. He identifies Japan and the Middle East as the most at-risk regions for a sovereign debt crisis, while Europe is already economically crippled, with pension funds wiped out by years of negative interest rates. This desperation is why leaders like Macron seek war. Despite the short-term bearish outlook for metals, Armstrong’s computer models forecast a strong bull market from 2027 into 2032, with gold potentially reaching $7,000 to $8,000, possibly spiking to $11,000. This corresponds with his prediction that 2032 will mark the collapse of republican forms of government, driven by systemic corruption. He also expects oil prices to rise due to physical supply shortages, fueling a stagflationary environment where traditional Keynesian economics fails. Capital fleeing war zones will continue flowing into the U.S., supporting both stocks and gold. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:33 – Guest Introduction and Background 00:01:08 – Iran Conflict Analysis 00:03:40 – Netanyahu Strategy and Failures 00:08:47 – Iran Geopolitical Strategy 00:12:00 – Historical Biases in Conflicts 00:21:10 – Ukraine War and Zelensky 00:28:00 – Sovereign Debt and Europe 00:35:00 – US Dollar and Capital Flows 00:42:37 – Gold Price Predictions 00:46:00 – 2032 Political Collapse Forecast 01:00:00 – Oil Prices and Stagflation 01:10:00 – Economic Theories Critique 01:14:30 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://armstrongeconomics.com X: https://x.com/strongeconomics Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167 Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9 Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries. Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter. “In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.” His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Joel Salatin to the show. Joel Salatin is a self described Christian Libertarian Environmentalist Capitalist Lunatic Farmer. Salatin describes a deeply distorted US agricultural landscape, where massive oversupply of corn and soybeans coexists with a historic cattle shortage. Half of domestic corn goes to ethanol, not food, and China’s pursuit of self-sufficiency is eroding soybean exports, yet government bailouts keep older, risk-averse farmers locked into unprofitable cropping cycles. This parasitic dependence on subsidies props up unneeded production while stifling the market signals that would otherwise push farmers toward cattle, a switch he demonstrated could be highly profitable and capital-efficient. The fertilizer and energy shocks from Middle East conflicts further expose the fragility of input-dependent farming. Salatin noted that rising fuel costs drive farm bankruptcies and accelerate land consolidation into the hands of patient capital, including family offices and billionaires. He emphasized that genuine food security is not threatened by lack of production but by water scarcity and desertification driven by vegetative loss from overgrazing and continuous cropping. Instead, he champions a biological paradigm of farming that builds soil through cover crops, intensive rotational grazing, and on-farm composting to eliminate synthetic inputs. His own Polyface Farms exemplifies this model, integrating livestock, forest, and direct marketing to create a resilient, local carbon economy. Salatin contends that the path forward lies not in propping up the failing industrial system but in entrepreneurial adoption of regenerative practices that mimic nature’s nutrient cycles and restore hydrological balance. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:51 – State of North American Agriculture 00:02:04 – Financial Struggles and Bailouts 00:03:02 – Cattle Herd Shortage Issues 00:03:55 – China Food Self-Sufficiency Plans 00:08:26 – Transitioning Soybean Farms to Cattle 00:11:40 – Conversion Costs and Payback 00:18:49 – Bailouts and Market Disconnect 00:24:20 – Screw Worm and Cattle Imports 00:29:00 – Localized Fertilizer and Carbon Cycles 00:35:15 – Impact of Fertilizer Shortages 00:41:23 – Water Issues and Vegetation 00:45:55 – Corn To Soybeans 00:47:00 – Energy Impacts on Farmers 00:55:00 – Water Rights & Investors 01:03:10 – Polyface Farms Operations Guest Links: Website: https://www.thelunaticfarmer.com Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/polyfacefarm X: https://x.com/JoelSalatin Joel Salatin, 68, dubs himself a Christian libertarian environmentalist capitalist lunatic farmer. Admirers hail him as the world’s most famous farmer, the high priest of the pasture, and Virginia’s most eclectic thinker since Thomas Jefferson. Detractors label him a bio-terrorist, Typhoid Mary, charlatan, and starvation advocate. Armed with high school and college debate trophies, 16 published books, and a thriving multi-generational family farm, Salatin draws on decades of food, farming, and fantasy to captivate global audiences. Equally at home herding cows or keynoting for Wall Street CEOs, he covers profitable regenerative farming techniques alongside cultural debates like orthodoxy versus heresy. A staple on radio and podcasts for preppers, homesteaders, ecological farmers, and foodies, Salatin blends practical, can-do entrepreneurial solutions with passionate sustainability advocacy.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef is the Founder of Schachter Asset Management Inc. Josef clarifies that the current energy market tightness is not a crude oil shortage but a severe refining capacity problem, particularly impacting Asia. While US production has surged to 24 million barrels daily, allowing for exports, a lack of refined products in Asia has driven local prices to the equivalent of over $150 per barrel. He attributes the volatility to geopolitical tensions, noting that oil prices swung from the high $90s to $67 before rebounding into the mid-$80s on renewed conflict fears. Schachter outlines three potential scenarios for oil prices. If peace talks succeed and the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab reopen, prices could fall back below $70, aided by China’s massive strategic reserves and floating storage. If the conflict remains contained, a trading range between $70 and $94 is likely. However, a significant escalation involving Iran and key shipping lanes could push prices past the previous high of $119, potentially reaching $141.50. He warns that such a sustained spike above $120 would trigger severe global economic headwinds, combining with AI-driven job losses and high government debt to potentially cause a deep recession. From an investment perspective, Schachter sees energy producers as undervalued, trading on long-term price assumptions of $60-$65 oil despite his forecast of $80 average for the year and $90 in 2027. He highlights Canada as a particularly attractive region due to a new, supportive political stance toward fossil fuels, vast undrilled reserves, and discounted valuations compared to US peers. He advises that higher prices will economically transform lower-tier drilling inventory into highly profitable assets, offering significant upside for investors across the energy and service sectors. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:42 – Current energy market conditions 00:02:46 – Crude oil supply analysis 00:04:23 – Refined product shortages 00:09:28 – Floating storage discussion 00:14:40 – Oil Shortage Debunking Thesis 00:17:47 – Dire Straits, Situation 00:21:08 – Asia refining crisis 00:25:42 – Asian Demand & Implications 00:29:05 – Recession and price scenarios 00:31:58 – Oil producer investment opportunities 00:35:48 – Canada energy sector outlook 00:41:10 – Other Opportunities? 00:46:47 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100” https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/ Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why. Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call. Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014. Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is an author, Founder of 321 Gold, and a former Marine Fighter Pilot. Moriarty outlines a deeply concerning global landscape, arguing that recent escalations—including Ukraine’s attack on Iranian vessels and Saudi Arabia’s strike on the Houthis—have rapidly transformed regional conflicts into what could become World War III. He contends that Israel is the primary driver of the war against Iran, with the United States under Donald Trump co-opting the conflict, potentially under duress from compromising information. Despite the severe supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi refineries, oil prices have paradoxically fallen. Moriarty attributes this to widespread manipulation by governments draining strategic petroleum reserves and intervening in paper markets to suppress costs, a tactic he warns is unsustainable and risks permanently damaging storage infrastructure. He believes all the headwinds that previously kept prices low have become tailwinds, setting the stage for a sudden, explosive price spike that could devastate the global economy. On precious metals, Moriarty notes gold’s resilience, referencing a forecast that it could trade between $4,000 and $6,000 this year due to currency debasement, though he emphasizes that manipulation exists across all markets. He advocates holding physical metals as insurance against chaos and sees extraordinary value in junior mining stocks, which he believes are historically undervalued relative to commodity prices. While acknowledging the high-risk nature of junior investments, he stresses that outsized gains from a few winners can offset losses. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:29 – War Escalation and WW3 Risks 00:04:40 – Oil Price Manipulation Explained 00:10:00 – Peace Talks and Hidden Agendas 00:14:32 – Infrastructure Strikes Analysis 00:19:22 – Oil Market Headwinds to Tailwinds 00:24:00 – SPR Depletion and Risks 00:27:00 – Crack Spreads and True Prices 00:32:08 – Perfect Storm in Energy Markets 00:35:36 – Imminent Petroleum Shortages 00:38:21 – Opportunities for Oil Producers 00:42:13 – Gold Prices and Investing 00:47:53 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook 00:54:32 – Wrap Up Guest Links: Website: http://www.321gold.com Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3 Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.

Recorded on: July 21, 2026 Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is the Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator. The discussion centers on the current state of precious metals and commodities, with Tiggre offering a fundamentally driven, contrarian perspective. He asserts that while gold’s long-term value proposition remains spectacular, driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, the market is at a critical juncture following a significant correction. He does not believe the bottom is confirmed, suggesting a potential cyclical low could be sub-$3,000 gold, and he is holding cash for such an opportunity rather than chasing current prices. This patience extends to gold miners, where he acknowledges compelling value but warns that stocks will not be immune to further drawdowns in the metal, advocating for a “buy low” strategy to maximize returns. Tiggre expresses increasing fondness for silver, noting its dual monetary and industrial drivers, though he cautions about political risk in key jurisdictions like Mexico. On energy, he remains very bullish on oil long-term due to understated supply disruptions but is not chasing the recent price rebound, preferring to sell puts to acquire positions at lower levels. He sees a potential inverse opportunity in copper, where escalating war fears could create an oversold condition in a market with strong structural supply constraints. The conversation highlights uranium as a particularly compelling setup, with the spot price lagging the consistently rising long-term contract price, suggesting an upward snap is likely. Tiggre advises that in a major market drawdown, the safest and best companies become obvious bargains, eliminating the need for high-risk speculation. His overarching strategy is a barbell approach, balancing blue-chip producers with higher-risk, high-reward exploration stocks, all while waiting for truly low-risk entry points. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:37 – Gold Value Proposition00:03:37 – Market Bottom Analysis00:04:44 – Bull Market Debate00:08:19 – Price Levels and Drawdowns00:11:10 – Central Bank Buying Durability00:14:57 – Gold Miners Value Proposition00:19:10 – Portfolio Allocation Strategy00:23:59 – Mining Developers Analysis00:26:40 – Silver and Silver Miners00:29:46 – Oil and Gas Sector00:34:10 – Copper Market Dynamics00:35:14 – Oil/Copper Shopping List?00:40:03 – Uranium Investment Setup00:45:19 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comX: https://x.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/ Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Steve Hanke back to the show. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia’s cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors. On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a fundamental driver. He also discusses the pressure on the Fed to monetize debt, which could fuel inflation and support gold. The conversation shifts to the broader commodity supercycle, fueled by deglobalization, underinvestment, and the need for larger precautionary inventories. Copper and tungsten are identified as clear bullish plays due to supply deficits. Hanke notes that high diesel prices are squeezing mining and agriculture, potentially raising output prices. He also touches on dollarization, recommending developing countries adopt the U.S. dollar to expand its use rather than de-dollarize. The interview concludes with Hanke emphasizing the importance of money supply growth as the key determinant of nominal GDP and inflation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:05 – Key Developments on Radar 00:04:58 – Oil Predictions vs Reality 00:10:53 – Inventory and Flow Analysis 00:14:40 – Crack Spreads and Refining 00:16:27 – Demand Destruction Dynamics 00:20:51 – Anticipated Oil Price Spike 00:22:32 – Long Oil Opportunity 00:27:37 – Gold Bull Market Outlook 00:29:38 – Central Bank Buying Drivers 00:45:54 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Interest-Waiting-Controversies-Additions/dp/3031633970 E-Mail: mailto:[email protected] Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel. In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes. Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is a Commodity Market Research Specializing in Oil and Gas. Johnston describes an unprecedented period of volatility in oil markets, where the supply-demand balance swung radically within a single month. Following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge of previously stranded tankers created a temporary mini-glut, flipping market structures from severe backwardation into contango. However, this glut proved fleeting as inbound empty tankers, initially driven by the most risk-tolerant owners, have dried up, leaving Gulf loadings constrained by available shipping capacity. Consequently, supply is tightening aggressively again. The most significant factor absorbing the supply shock is China, which swung its crude imports down by five million barrels per day without clear economic damage domestically. Johnston explores speculative explanations, including massive refined product stock releases, a coal-to-petrochemical feedstock switch, or a geopolitical understanding with the US. He also suggests China may be using the crisis as a successful dry run for weathering a potential blockade in a Taiwan conflict scenario. This swing, totaling roughly half a billion barrels, dwarfs the collective releases from IEA member states. Beyond crude, the refined products market, particularly diesel, is critically tight. Diesel crack spreads have soared to staggering levels, driven by drone attacks damaging Russian refineries, prior damage in the Middle East, and China slashing product exports. Johnston clarifies that strategic petroleum reserves function as a supply boost, not passive inventory, and that operational tank minimums at hubs like Cushing primarily affect regional price differentials to discourage exports, not trigger infinite crude spikes. He concludes that the overriding vulnerability is refining capacity, which is easy to target and hard to defend, making North American facilities a potentially valuable geopolitical safe haven in the current drone warfare era. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:29 – Guest Rory Johnson Introduction 00:01:06 – Energy Supply Demand Dynamics 00:04:30 – Mini-Glut and Market Flip 00:07:45 – Hormuz Traffic and Tankers 00:10:44 – China Import Swing Explained 00:15:00 – China Inventory Releases Analyzed 00:20:45 – Western SPR and Inventories 00:25:30 – Commercial vs Strategic Stocks 00:29:00 – Global Oil Deficit Calculation 00:34:00 – Refining Capacity Tightness 00:42:00 – Product Shortages and Prices 00:48:00 – Refinery Investment Outlook 00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

In this special multi-guest episode filmed on the floor of the 2026 Rule Symposium, industry veterans share contrarian views amid a healthy pullback in precious metals. Gold and silver sit 30-50% off highs, creating “fire sale” prices for quality names while central banks quietly stack physical gold and currencies face ongoing debasement. 13 Featured experts: Adrian Day, Rick Rule, Brien Lundin, Dr. Nomi Prins, Tavi Costa, Jeff Phillips, Matthew Piepenberg, Robert Quartermain, Brent Cook, Rob McEwen, Sean Roosen, Shawn Khunkhun, and Willem Middelkoop Key takeaways:Best setup in years: ultra-low valuations, extreme negative sentiment, cashed-up juniors & developers in safe jurisdictions.Focus areas: pure-play silver miners, copper (supply deficit + electrification), uranium, permitted gold developers, royalty/prospect generators.Rick Rule: invest in yourself first—knowledge + relationships beat hot tips.Long-term secular bull remains intact; producers generate massive free cash flow at current prices; expect M&A.Volatility is normal—buy quality while fear is high. Perfect primer for resource investors seeking high-conviction ideas from the conference. Find Out More About Palisades Goldcorp, Canada’s Leading Junior Resource Investment Company:► Website: https://palisades.ca Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:35 – Rick Rule – Invest in Yourself00:04:55 – Brent Cook – Quality Projects00:07:20 – Jeff Phillips – Healthy Pullback00:09:44 – Dr. Nomi Prins – Silver & Confidence00:12:14 – Matt Pipenburg – Buying Opportunities00:16:54 – Robert Quartermain – Dakota Gold00:20:03 – Rob McEwen – Macro Commodities Outlook00:24:45 – Sean Roosen – Liquidity & Energy – Hard Assets00:30:09 – Shawn Khunkhun – Good Valuations00:31:52 – Willem Middelkoop – The Big Picture00:35:00 – Tavi Costa – Rate Hikes & Geopolitical Drivers00:39:00 – Adrian Day – Sentiment & Opportunity00:42:09 – Brien Lundin – Debt, Deficits, Metals & Mining00:43:05 – Rick Rule Wrap Up

Stijn Schmitz comes to you from the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida. Rick Rule begins by emphasizing the importance of investing in oneself through knowledge and relationships, arguing that this foundational step precedes successful capital allocation. He notes that the easy money in commodities has been made, but the “sure money” lies ahead, particularly in gold. Rule explains that gold maintains purchasing power, having increased at 8% compounded nominally in US dollars over 26 years, while he predicts the US dollar could lose 75% of its purchasing power in the next decade. He highlights that precious metals currently represent only 0.5% of US savings assets, far below the four-decade mean of 2%, suggesting a potential fourfold demand increase if reversion occurs. Turning to oil, Rule describes a structural supply deficit due to chronic underinvestment in sustaining capital, amounting to roughly a trillion and a half dollars. He contrasts this with temporary disruptions, warning that the coming shortage will require massive capital input and cannot be quickly resolved. On silver, he shares his recent speculative strategy: he sold silver after a hyperbolic price spike, reallocating to physical gold, oil stocks, and silver equities, which he views as offering better risk-reward profiles. Rule also discusses the mining sector, cautioning that rising input costs Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:25 – Investing in Yourself 00:02:10 – Contrarian Investing Approach 00:03:50 – Gold Purchasing Power 00:06:00 – Gold Market Share Reversion 00:09:20 – Conditions to Sell Gold 00:11:00 – 1970s Inflation Parallels 00:12:30 – Rising Mining Costs 00:15:20 – Palisades Gold Corp 00:16:20 – Junior Mining Optionality 00:21:00 – Silver Speculation Strategy 00:24:50 – Silver Miners Valuation 00:26:20 – Oil Underinvestment Issues 00:37:50 – BattleBank Services 00:43:40 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/@realrickrule Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com Battle Bank: https://battlebank.com Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors. Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.