September 19, 2018: Shares of TLRY hit $300, marking a top for the entire sector. Where are we one-year later? I'm joined by Sean Stiefel of Navy Capital to discuss the macro-environment, the stocks to own and avoid, and the catalysts upcoming for cannabis.
Following his success at CSX, press is reporting that Paul Hilal and his fund Mantle Ridge are now contemplating a move at food service/uniform giant Aramark. I'm joined by Nomura analyst Dan Dolev to discuss the possible outcomes. Later I interview Cowen's John Kernan regarding the Jana stake in ELY.
Other companies mentioned include RRGB, QURE, CIR and BKS
Aaron and I sit down to discuss the latest with Sprint/T-Mobile, speculate on the trade's war potential impact on Mellanox, weigh if the potential for HUM to disrupt the CNC/WCG deal is more smoke then fire, and lastly speculate on HOME, AVYA and MGLN
I'm joined by merger-arb and event trader Joshua Goldberg to discuss the various scenarios and possible outcomes in the current battle for Anadarko Petroleum. Does Chevron need to match the OXY bid to win the deal? How much room to bump does OXY have? Why haven't we heard public discontent among OXY holders?
APC/CVX, BMY/CELG, and BBT/STI are three mega-deals of 2019 with one common denominator: No major media outlets managed to scoop the story before it was press released. So what's changed in the world of m&a journalism in the last few years? Greg Roumeliotis reflects on a 13+ year career with Reuters news covering deals and deal speculation. We discuss "bad" journalism, competition among peers and dig into why media intervention can often disrupt the entire deal process.
On this week's According to Sources, I sit down with Brett Buckley and James Dileva of Wallachbeth Capital. We discuss how event funds are coping with the current drought of deals, and later analyze AABA, COTY, and DELL
The possibility of a China/US trade agreement draws closer each day. Is this an overhang removed to be bought or a sell the news event? Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners joins me to discuss the details around enforcement and how funds seem to be positioned. In addition I'll give some thoughts on BMY/CELG
The Merger Masters Podcast series continues with Drew Figdor of TIG Advisors. We discuss his views on activism, his methods for assessing risk, and the role that both ego and fear play in the minds of fund managers. In addition I begin the podcast by weighing in on BMY, ZAYO, NLSN and BKS.
The Merger Masters podcast series continues with John Bader.
1:25 Evolving as an investor
7:40 "I'm a seller of most asset classes"
10:05 Early career
12:40 Lessons learned from Martin Gruss
15:55 Other people's money
17:50 Examining new deals
27:35: Avoiding "scary" industires
36:15 Five questions for John Bader
2:28 It takes a sixth-sense
4:05 Choosing which deals to participate in
6:30 SKY ltd / Comcast / Disney
7:45: Early career
17:00 Hedge fund vs. family office
18:34 PFE/ AGN
25:17 BMY / CELG
32:08 Detour Gold
40:02 Merger -arbitrage post The Big Short
45:30 Puerto Rico
50:09 6 questions for John Paulson
1) President Trump
2) Fannie / Freddie
3) When you seek an opinion that lies outside of Paulson funds, who is your first call?
4) If you could only invest in 1 outside hedge fund, who would it be?
5) Word association: cannabis, bitcoin, Elon Musk, CNBC Television
6) If you'd never become a fund manager, what would you have become?
On this week's episode I revisit Barnes & Noble after mixed holiday sales. I explain how I've adjusted my position in MLNX, quickly touch on QEP & ARNC, and end with the 6 factors driving the spread in BMY/CELG
Wall Street just experienced its worst selloff since 2008. In this week's podcast I sort through the wreckage and examine what I believe are the best opportunities in both merger-arbitrage and deal speculation. In addition, I delve into how I'm adjusting my portfolio to market conditions.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and should not be treated so. The contents of the podcast are the opinions of Michael Samuels, Broome Street Capital, and According to Sources
In conjunction with the release of Kate Welling & Mario Gabelli's book "Merger Masters" According to Sources continues it's interview series this week with Westchester Capital Management. Michael Shannon and Roy Behren have worked in tandem at WCM for over 25 years. We discussed portfolio structure, how they gain an edge over other merger-arb funds, and hit on some current situations including Aspen Insurance (AHL) and the breakup of United Technologies (UTX)
Steven Tusa of JP Morgan has claimed superstar status for his call to sell General Electric in 2016 when it was $29 a share. At near $7 now, Tusa continues to press GE, saying shares are worth $6. As we've seen with Meredith Whitney and Mary Meeker, Wall St.'s superstar analysts often stay TOO long in their calls, prompting a term Ron calls "Guru Overshoot" We discuss this dynamic, the future for GE, the rise and fall of Eddie Lampert's Sears vision, and make some political predictions for 2020.
Inspired by Kate Welling & Mario Gabelli's new book "Merger Masters," the According to Sources Podcast is interviewing each participant from the book, starting with Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital. In this incredibly honest and candid interview, we discuss why Karen has in recent years AVOIDED the merger-arb world, despite beginning her career there. She discusses the future of women in finance, and recounts with vivid detail the painful collapse of the UAL buyout in 1989, and what lessons were learned from it.
Sujeet Indap, journalist at the FT wrote the following in July, 2018
" Apollo’s life insurance affiliate Athene Holding (ATH) and Caldera are battling each other for control of American Equity Investment Life, an Iowa retirement annuities specialist that said in May it had put itself up for sale and has attracted a number of bidders. Athene is also a defendant in the suit.
Caldera accused the defendants of “disparaging Caldera in the marketplace, issuing commercial and legal threats to those doing or considering business with Caldera and filing sham litigation in domestic and foreign fora”. Caldera is asking for at least $1.5bn in damages.
Sujeet joined me last week to update and discuss this ongoing dispute in what I regard of one of Wall St. most under-the-radar dramas...
Aaron Glick and Eric Rose from Cowen & Co. join the podcast this week to discuss Shire/Takeda, Aetna/CVS, ESRX/CI and several other large transactions. They describe the methods in which their team gains an edge on the rest of Wall St. in the merger & event space, and later we list what deals perhaps pose the greatest risks / present possible short trades. Companies discussed: COL, FOXA, DVMT, RCII, PACB, ESIO, AET, ESRX
Paul Singer, Michael Price and John Paulson are just a few of the great merger-arb investors and corporate titans of industry that are interviewed by Kate Welling in the new book "Merger Masters." With contributions by Mario Gabelli, the book examines the founding fathers of this industry, infamous deals gone both right and wrong, and revisits the effect Ivan Boesky had on the entire industry.
In what I consider to be one of the best interviews thus far on According to Sources, Jason and I do a deep-dive into the situation between DVMT, VMW and Carl Icahn. What are the downside risks? Has Carl Icahn lost a step in recent years? What could a Rockwell Collins block from China mean for the entire merger-arb space? Does Dan Loeb stand ANY chance of winning the CPB board? We discuss these issues and much more.
What deal is most at risk from a market downturn? How does one handicap and source various deal approvals such as DOJ or MOFCOM and then gauge what each is worth for pending deals? In this week's podcast I give an update on the ongoing saga at Athenahealth (ATHN), weigh in on CA Inc., and answer the 7 questions on the minds of merger-arbs and deal speculators.
John Malone, Ron Burkle, Jana Partners, Tom Sandell: Each of these investors have either taken a stake or bid for Barnes & Noble (BKS). Now that the company has finally turned the review process over to an independent committee, will this time be different? What is this company worth? Would Amazon be interested? I give my thoughts and later I interview Gabelli analyst John Tinker.
1) Tesla: Is Elon Musk settling with the SEC really an all-clear?
2) Campbell Soup: As the stock continues to drift back to 2018 lows, the 2018 annual meeting has become an extremely binary event.
3) Athenahealth: What does this mean for the Elliott brand?
4) Papa John's: Will they be the next restaurant to go private?
5) The top-5 biggest investing mistakes i make
On October 17th, marijuana goes fully legal in Canada. This event, combined with the Canopy Growth Corp investment made by Constellation Brands / Stories of Coca-Cola entering CBD beverages have made the cannabis space the most discussed sector in the past few weeks. What events will unfold over the upcoming months that will either continue to validate the sector OR perhaps send these sky-rocketing valuations back down to earth? I sat down with Navy Capital's Sean Stiefel to discuss. Navy was formed in 2014 as a fund specifically designed to participate in the upside from cannabis.
Athenahealth shares have tumbled following recent media coverage that strategics such as UNH and Cerner are walking away from the process. Perhaps Elliott buying ATHN isn't the best-case-scenario for investors, but it's still a scenario that is worth examining.
Yum China plummeted to $30 last week after headlines that Hillhouse is ending its pursuit, but is the process truly over?
CBS: Is it now in play?
In part II of my interview with Bloomberg M&A reporter Ed Hammond, we discuss how deals can get off the ground, and why so many times the process can die out midway through. In "Five Questions" I ask Ed "What's the biggest deal that's NEVER happened?" ..."Has anyone ever approached you with a bribe to reveal information?"...and "What's the most UNUSUAL way you've come across a scoop?"
The event space is littered on a daily basis with rumors of deals and activism, the overwhelming majority of which are false. In Part 1 of what I consider to be a MUST-LISTEN interview, Bloomberg M&A reporter Ed Hammond explains the role journalists play in the deal-process. We discuss how incorrect journalism, for example the Nokia for Juniper story, makes it to press ONLY to be quickly refuted. And lastly we talk sources and their motivations, which can range from vanity, to humanity...to revenge.
But first I discuss how and why I've made Integrated Device Tech (IDTI) my biggest position of the year.
As it's Episode 12, it's time for a quarterly review. I examine the the Top 10 most intriguing situations in the world of deals, activism and merger arbitrage. Companies discussed include Yum China, Tribune, Mattel, Nielson & Arconic.
I reveal my biggest holding, and what I believe to be the most intriguing deal situation on the board.
Lehman Brothers. Allied Capital. Green Mountain Coffee. There was a moment in time where if David Einhorn shorted a stock, it was regarded as a possible death sentence for the shares. However, for both Einhorn and contemporary Bill Ackman, the last few years have proven to be difficult. In part II of my interview with Whitney Tilson, we discuss these two legendary hedge fund managers, and Whitney describes who he believes is the best hedge fund that no one's ever heard of .
Decoding the Short of the Decade: The origins, details, risks and aftermath of perhaps this decade's greatest short: Lumber Liquidators. I sit down with Whitney Tilson to discuss the process, and talk a little Tesla.
Shares of Eli Lilly have exploded 14% since their announcment to spin-out its animal health division "Elanco". However, one of Elanco's divisons, Agri Stats, is at the heart of one of the largest class-action lawsuits in the country. If found guilty Elanco could face billions in damages. In this episode I interview Tim Ramey, analyst at Pivotal Research, who downgraded Tyson Foods in 2016 an lowered his price target from $100 to $40 after reading the accusations involving Agri Stats. Not only do we discuss TSN, but we look back at his time covering Herbalife, and his relationships with Bill Ackman, David Einhorn and Carl Icahn during that time period.
In this in-depth interview, Jason Varano, Executive Director at Nomura Securities who focuses on Special Situations / Risk-Arbitrage sits down to discuss NXPI/QCOM, AABA/BABA, DVMT/VMW, AKRX and a little CBS/VIAB (the interview was conducted July 26th, the day before the New Yorker article on Moonves) Time Cues: Open: Why I'm short CBS 3:47: NXPI/QCOM 16:47: AABA/BABA 21:00 DVMT/VMW 27:00 AKRX 33:00 CBS/VIAB 35:00 5 QUESTIONS
I sit down with Michael Batnick, author of "Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments." Some of Wall Street's greatest missteps are well documented: Bill Ackman's attempt at activism in JC Penny, or Warren Buffet's go-around with Salomon Brothers are two famous examples. However the great investors of the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries ALL have their own investment blunders. Some went on to thrive after, while others called it quits. Michael Batnick and I spend 30 minutes analyzing these infamous lapses in judgement, INCLUDING Mark Twain's (yes the writer!) attempts at venture capitalism (yes he passed on an investment in Alexander Graham Bell's telephone)
A recent change at the CMS (Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services) is going to revise the way medicare pays the HHA's (Home Health Agencies) starting in 2020. One of healthcare's hottest subsectors has seen AMED rise 71% ytd, LHCG +40%, and EHC +38%. However not all HHA's are created equal, and Spencer Pearlman of Veda Partners explains how EHC's revenue stream is MOST at risk.
Hedge fund manager Michael Samuels of Broome Street Capital explores the latest deal situation at Synaptics (SYNA) and examines what the future could hold for Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) now that Irwin Simon is out. Lastly an NXPI update and answers to some twitter questions. TWITER: @accordtosources
This week on According to Sources, I analyze why the Kraft Foods for Campbell Soup story seems to be fairly weak. I explain how a lesson from the past can be a guide for trading Education Realty Trust (EDR). And in my interview with Joshua Goldberg, we do a deep dive into trading Disney / Comcast/ 21st Century Fox, and revisit NXPI/Qualcomm tweet me @accordtosources
Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners joins According to Sources to discuss the important upcoming dates for clarity regarding ZTE sanctions. She handicaps the odds for the Rubio/Schumer bill as it stands in the senate, and I give my take on trading NXPI twitter: @accordtosources email: email@example.com
According to Sources devotes the entire episode to trading strategies ahead of AT&T/Time Warner ruling on June 12. Questions such as "is AT&T a short on both outcomes?" and "where should foxa trade on win/loss?" will be addressed along with many others. Hosted by Mike Samuels, portfolio manager of Broome Street Capital, an event-driven hedge fund focused on merger-arb and m&a. This week's guest: A california-based portfolio manager who oversees close to 900mm in aum. He weighs in on TWX/T/DIS/CMCSA/FOXA
In episode one, i examine why i'm so skeptical of a EVHC takeover. In segment two, I explain why i think Convergys (CVG) will yield Elliott Associates another winner. And in segment three i examine why USG is the safest long on my board