Goldman Sachs expects ‘all time high’ oil demand to spur large deficits, boosting priceshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/goldman-sachs-expects-all-time-high-oil-demand-will-boost-prices.html- expect demand to rise by 2 million bpd from India and China- Is this coming from OPEC via China?- IEA says global demand will increase by 2.4 million bpd- Will Saudi Arabia increase production as a result?Oil markets are still volatile, U.S. energy chief says, calling for further supplieshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/22/-we-want-oil-prices-to-come-down-says-us-energy-secretary-general-.html- Prices area actually surprising stable right now- Granholm says Biden wants prices to come down because people "can't afford the premium."Anticipation of Rate Cuts Could Lead Oil Prices Higherhttps://etfdb.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/rate-cut-anticipation-could-lead-oil-prices-higher/- If interest rates fall, companies will borrow more and expand causing demand to rise- If interest rates fall, oil companies might be able to borrow money and expand drilling IF banks are willing to lend to them- Can't depend on the Fed to start cutting interest rates while inflation is above 2%Oil prices rise as tight supply counters expected rate hikeshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-rally-takes-breather-ahead-fed-ecb-rate-hikes-2023-07-24/Russia Defies Sanctions by Selling Oil Above Price Caphttps://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-defies-sanctions-by-selling-oil-above-price-cap-bae1c271- Brent is at $82/barrel. Spread gets too large for people to ignore going to Russia.- Does this mean that the system for selling and transporting Russia oil without touching western entities is well developed enough that the price cap can be totally evaded and it is meaningless? Or does it mean that the penalties for violating the price cap aren't being enforced or aren't strong enough?- Sanctions enforcement isn't immediate - it can take 3+ years to get evidence and apply fines- “The West has true pricing power,” he said, adding that the cap could be lowered to between $20 and $30 a barrel.- But if price cap is set too low, Russia will call the bluff and price oil at what the market is pricing its oil at, and buyers can take it or leave it.Global Hunt for Crude Sends Offshore Oil Stocks Soaringhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/global-hunt-for-crude-sends-offshore-oil-stocks-soaring-8e4f77a9- Exxon, Chevron stocks not doing well, but stocks of offshore exploration and service companies are booming. Noble, Transocean, etc. are booming with lots of offshore exploration. - Can take awhile to find what you need, but good for future, 2026, 2027, 2028Oil and Gas Companies to Face Stricter Regulations and Higher Royalty Rates for Drilling on Public Landshttps://www.energyportal.eu/news/new-rules-for-oil-and-gas-leasing-raise-rates-energy-companies-pay-to-drill-on-public-lands-8/84743/- The increased royalty rate is expected to remain in place until August 2032, with an estimated cost increase of $1.8 billion for oil and gas companies during that period.- The proposed rule, which raises royalty rates to 16.67% from the previous rate of 12.5%Link to Energy Infrastructure Webinar:https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_oyqmDS1aRRaqoUG0-gfVag#/registration This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil slides more than 1% as Chinese GDP dents demand hopeshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-after-libya-resumes-output-china-data-eyed-2023-07-17- GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the 2nd quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of 7.3%- what analysts were forecasting such high growth?- slow correction where expectations come back down to realityChina's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-june-industrial-output-rises-020809002.html- China's industrial output grew 4.4% in June from a year earlier, unexpectedly accelerating from 3.5% seen in May- Retail sales grew 3.1% in June, slowing from a 12.7% jump in May. Analysts had expected growth of 3.2%.- Are the kind of okay numbers from China signals that the Chinese economy is actually much worse?Chinese Oil Demand Doesn’t Make Sensehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-oil-demand-doesnt-make-sense-cbc02a44- "Either China’s economy will accelerate rapidly in the second half—a prospect that currently looks unlikely—or oil demand will revert to more regular patterns, dragging global consumption and, potentially, prices down with it." *** Really???***- Could there be a mismatch between petroleum imports quotas and what they actually need.- "China doesn’t regularly publish petroleum inventory data as the U.S. does, so it is difficult to say for sure how much diesel might be sitting in storage somewhere."Oil Bulls are Getting it All Wrong, Wall Street Veteran Warnshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-bulls-getting-wrong-wall-101242402.html- “The bulls got it all wrong,” said Ed Morse, the bank’s veteran head of commodities research. “The world is still waiting for a real Chinese recovery, Europe is in recession and we still don’t know if the US will have a hard landing.”- Citi's call for oil's summer average was $83/barrel. More realistic that the $97/barrel calls. But it's still off from $78...Japan to Propose Global Natural Gas Reserve to Avoid Shortageshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-propose-global-natural-gas-040004888.html- Can see why indiv countries would want to do this, but will global natural gas supplies be helpful the same way global oil reserves are when natural gas isn't traded like oil is?- Also, higher nat gas prices make Permian wells more valuable- Regional natural gas storage frameworks make much more senseDirty and Sludgy Oil Runs Hot in Asia as Saudis Cut Supply Backhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/dirty-sludgy-oil-runs-hot-051227587.html- Less light oil on the market from Saudi Arabia and UAE has made buyers look for heavy, sour crudes- Urals price is now up close to price cap price- Was this intentional by Saudis? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040- renewable diesel = diesel made from - biodiesel used as well- petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up- unique to west coastNATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4- Gasoline demand soared on July 4 but declined since then- Gasoline prices went down going into July 4 but have basically remained stable since then- "Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, unsurprisingly jumped to 9.6 million barrels as motorists hit the road for July 4."- "gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels" Oil dips on Chinese and U.S. data, but OPEC+ cuts limit fallhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-eases-ahead-china-us-data-opec-cuts-support-market-2023-07-10/- Lots of Chinese data coming out later this week- Will the market tighten in H2 2023? China's economy will turn around at some point, but will it be this year? - China's trade with US and Europe is down but is Russia really a replacement? Depends who you ask.Iran Seizes Commercial Tanker in Persian Gulfhttps://www.voanews.com/a/iran-seizes-commercial-tanker-in-persian-gulf-/7170938.html- Military incident in Persian Gulf including US Navy firing on Iranian vessels did not cause oil market to jump at all- Do people not care about tanker security in the Persian Gulf anymore?Special Guest Kunal Patel from the Dallas FedQ2 Energy Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2023/2302- price forecasts of producers are different from other industries. Think price will be in $80s by end of year- credit conditions: 24% of small E&Ps said credit conditions are having a major impact. Large E&Ps have more sources of credit.- costs in the oilfield: the larger the firm you are, the more pricing power you have, both with services and materials- larger firms can take advantage to get lower costs but smaller E&Ps are still facing higher costs- potential decreases in cost in H2- Contracts with rigs and suppliers are the issue - if firms locked in contracts in 2022 then prices are higher even if prices are going down now. When the contracts were signed is driving the costs- Oil producers in the US think that global oil consumption has slightly underperformed this year what they expected at the start of the year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Oil falls amid China growth uncertaintieshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-come-off-earlier-gains-banks-cut-china-growth-forecasts-2023-06-19/- the issue is headwinds, but is China's economy really that bad- the real issue is that expectations for China's great economic reopening haven't materialized. - China's demand growth was baked in and now that it's coming in below expectations- at the same time...China's refineries processed second most oil in May on recordColumn: China stored massive volume of crude oil in May, giving it optionshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-stored-massive-volume-crude-oil-may-giving-it-options-russell-2023-06-19/- China added to crude oil stockpiles at the fastest rate in nearly three years in May, as robust imports outweighed near-record refinery processing.Toyota unveils sweeping plans for new battery tech, EV innovationhttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-market-next-gen-battery-evs-2026-built-by-new-ev-unit-2023-06-13/- Solid-state batteries can hold more energy than current liquid electrolyte batteries- Toyota said it aims to launch next-generation lithium-ion batteries from 2026 offering longer ranges and quicker charging.- This could be much better for the modern model of driving.- While the range would be longer and the charging time faster and more palatable, but the weight might still be an issueNew Land Grab by Oil Giants Is Deep Undergroundhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/new-land-grab-by-oil-giants-is-deep-underground-34cd5e97Welcome Back Dr. Dean Foreman, Chief Economist for Texas Oil and Gas Association! www.txoga.org- Are we heading towards 13 million barrels per day of oil production from the US? It's not getting there.- Many states don't have the same activity levels as they did pre-pandemic- Texas is more important than ever for oil production - natural decline rates in Texas are less than in other places- Market is structurally tight, esp when you look at inventory levels- Why is OPEC cutting? Each time, Fed Reserve contemplates a rate hike, economic uncertainty results.-  Going back to the OPEC cuts last year was to offset monetary policy from Fed.- The China factor? China's economy is coming back but slowly over the course of the year.- Natural gas production is at all time highs- How much is flowing into global markets? Storage levels of natural gas are high in Europe and the U.S.- Seasonal and regional markets for natural gas remain.- Permian Basin most of the natural gas is associated- How to incentivize natural gas drilling when prices are so low- Appalachian region is constrained by pipelines- Record level of natural gas exports, but really strong production and really strong consumption. Productivity levels have held this up. - US is sitting at under $3 per mbtu, Europe is $9/$10 per mbtu- Hot summer could pressure the LNG situation. But also a comeback in China's economy could pressure the LNG situation. China gave up many cargoes of LNG that it had contracted for to Europe because they were willing to pay super high prices This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Commodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdownhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/commodities-slide-as-investors-bet-on-economic-slowdown-233a6d3- if prices trend down to the $60s or $50s by October then Shale producers might curb production plansSaudi Arabia Springs 1 Million b/d Cut in Opec Megadealhttps://www.energyintel.com/00000188-857f-d6e7-a9ba-efffca560000- will Aramco take oil from storage if customers want more oil than they have available from production?Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output After OPEC Members Clash Over Quotashttps://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-some-opec-members-clash-over-oil-production-quotas-87f43f0c- Angola vs. Saudi Arabia over a reduction in baseline quotas- 2024 new baseline quotas that more accurately reflect capacityWhat oil production cuts were agreed at OPEC+ meeting?https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-opec-deal-cuts-oil-supply-until-end-2024-2023-06-05/#:~:text=The%20OPEC%2B%20alliance%20on%20Sunday,a%20combined%2040.46%20million%20bpd- Does OPEC know something about China's demand that the rest of the market doesn't?China is drilling a 10,000-meter-deep hole into the Earthhttps://www.mining.com/web/china-is-drilling-a-10000-meter-deep-hole-into-the-earth/- "The project will provide data on the Earth’s internal structure, while also testing deep underground drilling technologies, according to China National Petroleum Corp., which is spearheading the project."- Is this REALLY just a scientific and technical venture? Or is it cover for something military?- How much oil and gas would they have to get out of 457 days of drilling?- could it be for rare earths like lithium?An Inflexible EPA Rule Will Hamper Goals to Reduce Methane Emissionshttps://themessenger.com/opinion/an-inflexible-epa-rule-will-hamper-goals-to-reduce-methane-emissions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Ford to charge up EV drive with flurry of battery dealshttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-announce-new-battery-material-deals-investor-event-2023-05-22/- doubts about Ford's ability to actually hit their EV production targets- But do people even WANT to buy F-150?- Ford says its electric vehicle unit is on track to lose $3 billion this year.NATIONAL AVERAGE PRICE OF GASOLINE HITS PAUSE AS MEMORIAL DAY LOOMS- gasoline price are not as high as people thought they were- is this a silver lining on the inflation talk?- Distillate stocks are 1% higher than this week last year- "Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail gasoline consumption, fell 395,000bpd to 8.91 million barrels."- Work from home, even just a few days a week, has permanently removed demand- will we see depressed gasoline consumption over the summer driving season despite lower gasoline pricesCourt rejects challenges to FERC approval of Alaska Gasline planhttps://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/14293993/court-rejects-challenges-to-ferc-approval-of-alaska-gasline-plan- FERC approved the plan in 2020- 800 mile natural gas pipeline to bring gas from North Slope, liquefy it and ship it to Asian customers- The environmental groups objected, among other things, to FERC’s failure to calculate greenhouse gas emissions that would occur when customers burned the natural gas.European Gas Prices Drop as Goldman Sees Fuel-Switching Floorhttps://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/european-gas-prices-drop-as-goldman-sees-fuel-switching-floor- "Mild weather and a steady flow of liquefied natural gas have contributed to the decline as Europe recovers from its energy crisis amid severely curtailed pipeline flows from Russia. Stockpiles on the continent are now almost 66% full, well above the seasonal average"- But Goldman could be wrong. Hydropower is still down from last year's drought. Chevron Doubles Down on Shale With $6.3 Billion Dealhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/chevron-to-buy-pdc-energy-in-6-3-billion-stock-swap-d8835eee- Chevron getting acreage in Colorado but perhaps it can more effectively navigate regulations than smaller PDC This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Big Oil Has $150 Billion in Cash and Investors Want a Sharehttps://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-has-150-billion-in-cash-and-investors-want-a-share-b5cdea35- oil companies sitting on cash now, but they may need that cash for when prices are lower- should they return all this cash to shareholders now or keep it to pay out in dividends throughout the next cycle?- what about needing cash to account for uncertainty in regulations?Oil’s sharp slide has surprised markets. But some traders now see a bottom for priceshttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/08/oils-sharp-slide-has-surprised-markets-but-some-traders-now-see-a-bottom-for-prices.html- analysts have "feelings" that oil prices have seen their bottom- what are the signs? expectation that US gasoline demand will be strong this summer? strong jet fuel demand? inventories? industry? Diesel demand? Chinese manufacturing data? Fed is done raising interest rates?- OPEC is a big uncertainty. Will OPEC take action to cut production at its June meeting or keep production stable?- Will OPEC members adhere to their voluntary cuts?- Diesel numbers aren't good for demand- Could hit summer driving season and demand goes up but then OPEC would need to hold production steady- If Russia doesn't actually cut then oil prices could go lower when evidence hits marketOil climbs almost 3% as recession fears begin to fadehttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-inch-up-recession-fears-begin-fade-2023-05-08/- The fears aren't fading, they just aren't as bad as they seemed before.- Was the price slide in oil really overdone?- OPEC to release monthly oil report on Thursday?No more gas stoves? New York is first state to ban gas in new buildingshttps://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2023/0505/No-more-gas-stoves-New-York-is-first-state-to-ban-gas-in-new-buildings- "It’s part of a larger state plan to reach net-zero energy emissions by 2050" but the power plants will probably still be permitted to use natural gas- "By 2026, most new buildings under seven stories will have to use electric heat pumps for controlling air temperatures and for hot water. Larger buildings will have to comply by 2029. Some businesses that require extreme high heat to operate are exempt."- Heat pumps don't work that well. What will cities like Buffalo do?- "The state’s energy cushion could narrow beginning in 2025 as some generators are deactivated and demand grows" according to New York's grid operator. Probably will not take older generators out of commission in order to continue to provide electricity.Special Guest Kunal Patel from Dallas Fed - Q1 Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2023/2301- 200 firms in 11th district registered- data collected March 15-23- Data suggest expansion in upstream over the last 2 years is stalling- supply chain delays eased- employment growth continuing but not as fast as before- executives are not optimistic- expect crude oil to end year at $80/barrel- WTI at $73/barrel but breakeven is around $62/barrel: range of averages from $56 to $66. But that includes different regions, Eagle Ford, Permian, etc. - most firms can profitably drill at current prices but last year breakeven was lower ($56/barrel). Large firms (10,000bpd or more) need $55/ barrel while smaller firms need less).- Generally if executives think the price is currently in a good range they predict that oil will end the year at the same price. Last year they thought prices would come down. Now they think prices will go up.- Question: What West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? AVerage across sample is up by 10% from last year. Suggests increase in cost just to manage existing wells. - Price to complete a DUC has to be between operating expenses and price to put well into production. Completion cost is generally 2/3 of the cost of the well.- $70 oil but $2 gas -- is this an issue? Natural gas and natural gas liquids are seen mostly as an additional uplift. Cost of natural gas mostly impacts the just natural gas drillers.- Push to reduce emissions by moving to electric power is impacting the area. Using electric powered turbines in fracing, for example. More wells mean more electricity needed but often they are away from civilization and its hard to get electricity.- Anger towards BLM - especially regarding permitting rules. Even renewables are having trouble getting permits from BLM. Length of time to get permits is increasing.- Costs continued to rise, but supply chain issues easing. Why? Activity was flat, so maybe supply chain caught up? no, equipment that was ordered a long time ago was finally delivered. Could costs be in labor?Next report coming out June 22!Check out energy indicators and energy slide show! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

China’s mixed economic data fuels concerns about recoveryhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/01/business/china-economic-recovery-concerns/#- Is this something that China can deal with domestically? Or is it the fault of the global economy which isn't ordering as much stuff from China?- China's consumer demand is doing ok, but the industrial side of China is patchy.- Is this just pent up consumer demand and the consumer economy will drop off to match the poor industrial recovery?- "The manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.2 from 51.9 in March — the first time since December it was below the 50 mark, which signals a contraction. Sub-indexes for new orders, new export orders and manufacturing employment were all below 50." - Will the consumer numbers decline once the post-Covid bump is over? If so...oil prices are heading lower.GasBuddy: Decline in retail gasoline prices gaining momentumhttps://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/05/01/gasoline-dehaan-aaa-gasbuddy-oil/5411682948788/- gasoline prices are going down and will go down even more.- result of oil prices declining and wholesale gasoline prices declining and retailers are passing on the savings to consumers.- diesel prices also declining. Is this due to slowing economy, or is it just coming back down after being so high due to Ukraine/Russia issues? Seems like the issue is the economy.First shipment of Russian oil to Pakistan brokered by China scheduled for Mayhttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/first-shipment-of-russian-oil-to-pakistan-brokered-by-china-scheduled-for-may/articleshow/99879550.cms?from=mdr- "The USA may also have given tacit support to this deal as crisis-hit Pakistan remains a key arms supplier to Kiev, ET has further learnt."- Sanctions, etc. give US a way to control who gets what oil based on foreign policy goals.How trading oil in another currency besides the dollar might play outhttps://www.thenationalnews.com/business/comment/2023/05/01/how-trading-oil-in-another-currency-besides-the-dollar-might-play-out/- Saudi Arabia's currency is pegged to the dollar and they can't de-peg it because there would be huge inflation. Can't sell too much oil in currency in non-dollars because yuan, etc. can be devalued.- "Any diminution of the dollar’s global role in favour of the yuan or another currency will be gradual, and will lead, not follow, the oil market."- Saudi Arabia may be willing to accept yuan for oil, but they will likely insist on a set yuan to dollar rate.Biden administration could delay electric vehicles biofuel program decisionhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-could-delay-electric-vehicles-biofuel-program-decision-2023-05-01/- If EV manufactures use renewable "fuels" (energy?) they might get awarded RINs they can sell to gasoline refineries that can't use enough Ethanol? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Biden admin preparing major crackdown on power plants that fuel nation's gridhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-preparing-major-crackdown-power-plants-fuel-nations-grid- EPA planning to issue regulation that would limit emissions from fossil fuel power plants. Basically would require plants to shut down or install costly carbon capture facilities.- Would drive up prices- Is this being done in order to run on it in the next election?China’s EV Love Affair Spells Doom for Gasolinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-21/china-s-ev-shift-spells-doom-for-oil- Can China's "leek futuristic roadsters with hologram wheels" EVs and SUVs that promise "a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) on a single charge" spell the end of gasoline?- Can China maintain baseload energy for all these EVs? Does it want to control people's ability to charge their vehicle?- Just because someone saw lots of sleek EVs at the Shanghai auto show doesn't mean that everyone is buying and using an EV and that the combustion engine is dead in China.- Would think the same about America's auto industry if you watched the commercials from the Super Bowl, where every vehicle advertised was an EV.Column: Oil buying slows amid renewed concerns about economyhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-buying-slows-amid-renewed-concerns-about-economy-2023-04-24/- OPEC has been wrong before, but they aren't ALWAYS wrong.- "But they remain more cautious on refined products owing to continued uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and petroleum consumption."- Will there be a global economic slowdown? Still could be.- OPEC shocked the market with a cut last month but oil prices are only in the low $80s.Exxon Mobil Eyes Potential Megadeal With Shale Driller Pioneerhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-mobil-eyes-potential-mega-deal-with-shale-driller-pioneer-c48a4747- "held preliminary talks with Pioneer Natural Resources Co. about a possible acquisition of the U.S. fracking giant, as the oil major hunts for a blockbuster deal in the shale patch, according to people familiar with the matter."- Pioneer really understands the permian- XOM might be better at managing oil to gas ratio that has caused problems for Pioneer- "Pioneer has some of the best assets in the Permian, according to analysts"-"Pioneer, which only has operations in the Permian, produced an average of about 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day there in 2022"Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) insiders sold US$3.0m worth of stock suggesting impending weakness.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-mobil-corporation-nyse-xom-130046709.html This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Russia forecasts stable oil output to 2025, to set up stockpileshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-forecasts-stable-oil-output-2025-set-up-stockpiles-2023-04-17/- Russia wants to build their stockpiles. Are they taking 500,000bpd off the market and putting it in storage or are they going to cut production in order to keep that oil in the ground and that's storage?- Russia could be planning to not actually cut production but keep those sales on the down lowOpec Chief Pushes Back on IEA's Criticism of Cutshttps://www.energyintel.com/00000187-8e37-dc4f-a7e7-9fb7a32e0000- "First of all, this is not the first time the IEA has criticized Opec and Opec-plus. Unfortunately, it has become like a broken record, yet time and time again, market fundamentals prevail, and Opec’s more accurate forecasts and decisions prove to be the correct ones."- IEA pushes energy transition and then expresses frustration when OPEC cuts oil production- What does the west really WANT from OPEC?- Key differences between IEA and OPEC April Monthly Oil Market Forecasts: "Opec revised its forecast [for China's oil demand growth] upward this month by about 50,000 b/d reaching 760,000 b/d, while the IEA revised it upward by almost 200,000 b/d reaching 1.2 million b/d."OPEC doesn't think China's oil demand growth will be nearly as high as the IEA thinks.Russia’s oil exports are back to pre-war levelshttps://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html- according to IEA, "Moscow’s exports of crude oil and oil products rose in March to their highest level since April 2020, jumping by 600,000 barrels a day"- Russia's overall income plunged nearly 21% compared with the same period in 2022 according to Reuters.Stopping America’s LNG exports would hurt producers and send Beijing to Russia’s doorstephttps://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3933453-stopping-americas-lng-exports-would-hurt-producers-and-send-beijing-to-russias-doorstep/- we should encourage economic relations with China because it has improved diplomacy.- Can't be a free-market and say you want to ban exports to certain placesEurope’s Largest Nuclear Reactor Launches as Continent Splits Over Atomic Energyhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-launches-as-continent-splits-over-atomic-energy-373d6bd4- Divide between European countries that want more nuclear and those that are shutting it down in their countries.- "public support for nuclear power has grown in Finland, with roughly 60% of Finns in favor"- “Finland has a very strong culture of trust in authorities and experts,” said Mr. Tulkki, the nuclear scientist. Public confidence that nuclear waste can be disposed of safely “has enabled people to accept nuclear power,” he said.Check out new column on water futures trading: https://www.investing.com/analysis/saudi-arabia-takes-aim-at-oil-bears-what-traders-should-know-200636964 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com