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July 6, 2020
This is not a drill. Tesla has released official Short Shorts in its merch store for $69.420. These limited edition red & gold shorts wit 'S3XY' on the butt are an inside joke for Tesla shareholders. Tesla has been one of the most shorted & criticized stocks for years... with numerous billionaire short-sellers/skeptics. Now those haters have been proven wrong, as the stock is up 228% so far in 2020, and 415% in the past year. Tesla now trades at a market valuation of ~$250B, and may be on the cusp of reporting its 4th profitable quarter in a row!! Congrats Tesla & Elon! I hope you were able to snag a pair of Short Shorts, I know I got mine!
July 5, 2020
Amazon has purchased Zoox for $1.2B. The San Francisco based startup is developing autonomous vehicle technology. Zoox has raised more than $1B in funding, and was valued at over $3B in 2018. The question is why did Amazon get the on the cheap and what technology was so valuable? What we do know, is that Amazon continues to vertically integrate its logistics network, and is constantly testing new way to get us packages faster ;)
July 4, 2020
Arcimoto stock has soared more than 450% in the past 3 months, on the back of ramping deliveries and new financing. In June, the company raised $17M, giving them enough funding to put the pedal to the metal. I caught up with CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer, to get his take on the recent Hyrecar partnership & funding news.
July 2, 2020
Tesla beats everyone's estimates and reports deliveries of 90,650 for Q2 2020. Despite over a month of the Fremont factory being shutdown and a global pandemic, Tesla was able to grow its deliveries by 2% sequentially. My projections indicate the company is still on track to hits its annual 2020 delivery guidance of 500,000+ vehicles. This would be 36% growth from 2019, despite the world falling apart. Tesla was able to report a profit last quarter with deliveries of 88,000... the chance of them reporting another GAAP profit is looking good. What are your thoughts on the quarter?
June 29, 2020
Tesla Q2 2020 Deliveries & Production Preview. A strong quarter from Gigafactory Shanghai and Model Y could push Tesla deliveries to 90,000+ (my estimate) for the quarter. This is wayyyy higher than any of us were thinking at the end of Q1, and puts profitability for the quarter within reach!
June 28, 2020
Interview with Vivas Kumar, ex Battery Supply Chain Manager for Tesla, now a Principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Vivas prepared a 34 slide presentation about the state of the Lithium industry, and battery materials supply chain. As EV sales climb from 1M/year to 50M/year over the next decade or two, massive investments need to be made in the raw materials supply chain. This is an in depth look at the mining & lithium industry from now, until 2030.
June 25, 2020
New documents confirm Tesla is expanding battery manufacturing and R&D operations in Palo Alto. This essentially confirms Tesla's 'Project Roadrunner', a top secret initiative with the goal of producing battery cells in house (with a cost below $100kWh). With up to 100 people working in 4 shifts 24/7, it seems like Tesla is truly ramping capacity of these new cells. But many questions remain ... Do these cells use the Maxwell Dry Battery Electrode (DBE) tech? Are these cells going into the new Plaid Model S? How many battery packs can Tesla produce in Palo Alto/Fremont?
June 22, 2020
Update on my Spotify options trade from 3/4 weeks ago. I decided to close out my position with a 110% profit & return to my option retirement! I'm still holding all my Spotify shares and am very pumped about the future they are building. Remember nothing on HyperChange is financial advice!!
June 18, 2020
Tesla has posted it's most in-depth corporate sustainability report yet. This analysis of the company's ever improving carbon emissions per vehicle, shows why Tesla is way ahead of the pack. From tailpipe emissions, to battery efficiency, to water usage, Tesla continues to push the envelope on becoming as sustainable as possible! This makes me so proud to be a shareholder :)
June 16, 2020
Doing a live radio broadcast about Teslaโ€™s ramping Model Y deliveries! I just saw my first two in the wild! This was my first time trying this content format & having people call in, it was so fun, thanks for joining!
June 10, 2020
I caught up with Arcimoto CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer to discuss his new partnership with Sandy Munro, to help bring the FUV into mass production. These are two of my favorite people in the EV/transportation world, and I think Sandy Munro will add a lot of value to Arcimoto's production ramp. His industry expertise can cut costs, improve ramp speed, and bring decades of Detroit experience to Arcimoto's team.
June 8, 2020
Deep dive into Nikola Motors, the hydrogen/electric truck startup that recently completed a reverse merger to list on the NASDAQ, and trades for a valuation of ~$12B ($35.97 per share). I'm joined by Matt Joyce to break down the company's strategy & CEO Trevor Milton's ambitious vision. The company's claims to have breakthrough battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology, seem too good to be true. And a valuation of ~$12B+ for a company with less than $1M in revenue last year and an operating loss of $88M? Only time will tell if Nikola is the real deal. For now, I'm very skeptical.
June 3, 2020
Zoom reports Q1 FY21 revenue of $328M, up 169%. The company reported record EBIT of $23M, and $251M of free cash flow in the quarter. Revenue guidance for the full year has increased to $1.775-$1.8B, implying 187% growth from last year. With a market capitalization of $60B, this implies a 34X forward price/sales ratio. Will Zoom's fundamentals be able to grow fast enough to justify a $200/share price? I'm torn. On one hand, I see huge potential for Zoom to be a digital communication layer connecting our global economy ... on the other hand I see a company that needs to double revenue for the next 2 years (after FY21) to justify its sky high valuation ... what are your thoughts?
June 1, 2020
Interview with Novonix COO and Co-Founder, Dr. Chris Burns. The former Jeff Dahn researcher turned advanced battery materials entrepreneur, is on the cusp of commercializing a new synthetic graphite called PureGraphite. Tesla battery researcher Jeff Dahn has been touting Novonix's new dry particle microgranulation (DPMG) breakthrough as having huge potential. Panasonic/Sanyo (who supplies Tesla's batteries) and Samsung are already partnered with Novonix and working to commercialize the PureGraphite. Could there be a Tesla/Novonix partnership announced at Battery Investor Day?
May 29, 2020
Could a Department of Energy project known as the Battery 500 Consortium be working with Tesla to commercialize next generation lithium ion batteries? On May 19th, the Battery 500 Consortium released an update about its project, saying they've achieved an energy density of 350 Wh/kg., that can last for 350 charge cycles. This is a huge improvement from a couple years ago, and signals the technology is on the path towards commercialization. Shirley Meng is one of the leading researchers in the group, and has worked with Maxwell Technologies extensively in the past (before Tesla acquired them). Maxwell is also an electrode supplier for the Battery 500 Consortium's project. What do all these clues mean? Is this breakthrough in academia tied to what Tesla will announce at its upcoming battery investor day??
May 28, 2020
Ever since the Joe Rogan news, I've been thinking more and more about Spotify's push into video content later this year. Not only did I buy stock, but. also bought some long-term call options (which I almost never do). In this video I break down the structure of my trade and thoughts behind it! More Spotify videos soon about the valuation!
May 27, 2020
Tesla has dropped the prices of the US made Model 3 by $2,000 and the Model S and X by $5,000. Does this signal that the Model Y is cannibalizing sales of Tesla's other vehicles? Is the global recession finally catching up to Tesla? Or is this just Tesla passing along manufacturing efficiencies to its customers? I think it's a combination of all 3 factors ... and possibly to clear out inventory for a new Plaid Model S coming later this year ;)
May 25, 2020
Electrek, Sandy Munro and Jeff Dahn are all hinting at Tesla's having the capability for bi-directional charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) features. Is Tesla getting ready to announce a new software feature that will allow its vehicles to put energy back on the grid? V2G has long been touted in academic circles as having the potential to stabilize the grid, and solve the expense (and very pollutive) dispatch curve problem. If Tesla succeeds with massive batteries and virtual power plants, peaker plants could be a thing of the past. ARK Invest pegs this as an ~$800B global market opportunity.
May 21, 2020
An interview with Jeremy, the creator of the Financial Education Youtube channel. He is a pioneer of being an independent video creator in the financial space, and inspired me to start HyperChange. Today Jeremy has almost 500,000 subscribers on his main channel, and makes videos about the stocks market and personal finance.
May 19, 2020
Nikola Motors, a battery/fuel-cell startup is getting ready to list on the NASDAQ via a IPO/reverse merger with VectoIQ. While I'm a fan of the company's ambitious vision, after analyzing the business strategy and Founder Trevor Milton's track record, I'm skeptical. What's your take on this IPO? Would you buy in at a $6B+ valuation?
May 18, 2020
Leaked slides from a recent Jeff Dahn presentation imply that Tesla's new 1M mile battery cells, will be capable of vehicle to grid charging. This hardware capability combined with Tesla's new Autobidder software, could generate major revenue from utilities, for Tesla owners. Renewables are causing increasing strain to the grid without storage, and Tesla's vehicles could be the perfect buffer to store this intermittent power. Do you think Tesla will announce V2G at Battery Investor Day??
May 12, 2020
Spotify's new partnership with Cash App, Fundraising for Artists, has got me scheming! This payment layer within the Spotify App could be the future of democratizing/digitizing the record label model, and letting us invest in our favorite musicians & podcasters! I would love to be able to invest in my favorite musician's next big project.
May 7, 2020
Interview with Sandy Munro of Munro & Associates about his Model Y teardown!! We cover the Octovalve, new stamping machine, Cybertruck, Sandy's work on a VTOL jet and his thoughts on Elon Musk's idea for a home HVAC system. Sandy is a Detroit/auto industry legend, it was a pleasure having him on the show and hearing how excited he is about Tesla's technology.
May 6, 2020
An interview with The Limiting Factor about Tesla's upcoming Battery Investor Day. We analyze the potential for Tesla to bring battery cell production in house, with Maxwell's Dry Battery Electrode technology. These new battery cells can be produced cheaper and faster, while being more efficient, lasting longer and maintaining very little (or no) cobalt. If Tesla announces this it is poised to be a gamechanger for the EV & transportation industry.
April 30, 2020
Full analysis of Tesla's Q1 2020 financial results & conference all. Elon musk hints at a new Gigafactory for the Cybertruck, and says battery investor day will be in late May, in either California or Texas. Overall, Tesla continues to invest rapidly in new growth initiatives as demand is strong, and cashflow improves. Despite a depressing macro situation, the future has never looked brighter for Tesla!
April 27, 2020
Preview of what I'm expecting Tesla to report as part of its Q1 2020 earnings on Wednesday. My estimates are for $5.7B in revenue, and an operating loss of $270M. I also think there is a good chance that Tesla confirms (or at least doesn't drop) its guidance for deliveries of 500,000+ cars in 2020.
April 24, 2020
A conversation with Anthony 'Pomp' Pompliano about Bitcoin. We cover how he got involved with cyrpto, why he is long Bitcoin, whether recent stimulus will lead to inflation, Jack Dorsey + Square's involvement in Bitcoin, how sustainable Bitcoin's energy usage is, whether small countries are getting into Bitcoin mining & so much more! Pomp is one of my favorite crypto content creators and I recommend you follow all his stuff!!
April 23, 2020
SpaceX has successfully completed its 6th Starlink launch. This means they have deployed over 420 low earth orbit satellites. On Twitter, Elon Musk confirmed that Starlink would be launching in a private beta in 3 months, and a public beta in 6 months. I can't believe how fast this is happening! This is a huge inflection in SpaceX's business, as they become their own launch customer (by launching their own satellites). Long-term this has the potential to add $Bs of revenue, and fund SpaceX/Elon Musk's Mars ambitions.
April 23, 2020
A conversation with Turner Novak about Snaps Q1 2020 earnings results, and the company's long term business model. A growing user base combined with increasing ARPU, has the potential to drive revenue growth and improving margins for years to come. Snap's AR features like Lenses and Bitmoji are gaining major traction, and driving engagement. I think Snap's long-term potential remains severely misunderstood, and this was a great quarter.
April 22, 2020
Netflix reported blowout Q1 2020 financials, with subscribers increasing by 15.7M, and positive free cash flow. Although management was very cautious about guidance, and said this bump is temporary, there is a lot to be optimistic about. This quarter proved that Netflix has reached enough scale to be a profitable business. After years of increasingly negative cashflow, many (including myself) were skeptical this would ever happen.
April 22, 2020
Oil futures went negative for the first time in history yesterday, hitting -$37 per barrel. What does this tell us about the state of over supply in the oil industry, and how difficult it will be for companies (like Exxon and Chevron) to compete with nation states (like Russia & Saudi Arabia) in the current price war. Things are so bad Trump is considering a bailout for oil & gas companies.
April 19, 2020
A conversation with Arcimoto CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer. Arcimoto just reported it's full year 2019 financials, and provided us with a business update. The company is launching its first Deliverator pilot program in Q2 with a major national grocery chain, and has delivered its first Rapid Responder to the Eugene-Springfield fire department. Let me know what you think in the comments below! This interview was recorded on 4/17/2020.
April 17, 2020
A conversation with Mayur Thaker (@freshjiva) about Tesla's financial transformation since the launch of the Model 3. Tesla's business model has been significantly de-risked, as cashflow improves, net debt is reduced, and revenue continues to grow. The future has never looked brighter. This deep dive into Tesla's evolving financial picture shows why the stock has outperformed so dramatically over the past year. Huge thanks to Mayur for joining!
April 14, 2020
Amazon shares are out-preforming as the company hires 175,000 additional employees, to handle overwhelming demand. The company is also putting aside $500M to increase employee wages. Jeff Bezos' empire could be a structural winner from this macroeconomic crisis. The transition from brick and mortar to ecommerce is poised to accelerate, given the new normal. What are your thoughts?
April 13, 2020
The Model 3 sold ~44,500 units in the US in Q1, making it BY FAR the best-selling EV, and best-selling small/mid-size luxury vehicle in the United States. On a revenue adjusted basis, The Model 3 was neck and neck with the Toyota Camry, and by my estimates was the #1 selling passenger car in the US by revenue in Q1. This marketshare dominance implies huge sales for the Model Y as production ramps later this year. What are your thoughts on Tesla's US marketshare dominance??
April 10, 2020
Official Q1 2020 sales data from China has been released from the CPCA. Tesla delivered ~16,700 Model 3's in China in March, with ~10K coming just in March. This implies that Gigafactory Shanghai is at a 150K/yr Model 3 production rate TODAY. The Shanghai ramp is progressing way faster than expected. I think this is a an epic storyline that will come to light on Tesla's Q1 earnings call.
April 8, 2020
Just a year ago, Casper was flying high at a private market valuation of $1.1B, hitting unicorn status. Today, after a broken IPO and the economic criss, Casper trades at a market capitalization of just $180M. Can this mattress startup complete its transformation into an encompassing sleep/wellness brand? If CEO Philip Krim is successful, I think the equity price has a lot of upside.
April 7, 2020
Quibi is a mobile-only short form video app that launched yesterday. It's founded by Jeffrey Katzenberg, and run by Meg Whitman. In total, Quibi has raise $1.75B and recruited top Hollywood talent for its content. The problem? Nobody needs what they are building. IMO this is setting up to be one of the biggest tech fails of 2020. What's your take on Quibi?
April 6, 2020
Sandy Munro's Model Y teardown has revealed a new easter egg: The Octovalve. This steampunk-esque Octopus with a snowflake on its forehead, is the new mascot of Tesla's breakthrough thermal management/heat pump in the Model Y. This appears to be the replacement of the Superbottle, that was used for heating/cooling in the Model 3. Could this be a sneak preview of Tesla's ambitions to build a smart home HVAC / AC system? I think this is one of the nerdiest/most exciting Tesla quirks we've seen in 2020!
April 5, 2020
A conversation with George Whitridge & Max Friedrich of ARK Invest's Fintech team. We discuss Square stock, and the company's long-term potential to merge its seller (Square retail POS) and consumer (Cash App) businesses to become a digital bank. The interview was recorded on 03/30/2020.
April 2, 2020
Tesmanian reports that Tesla delivered 9,367 Model 3's in Q1 2020 in China (according to the China Passenger Car Association), with 3,900 alone being delivered in March. This shows that Tesla Shanghai production is hitting record highs. My guess is Tesla could deliver 15-20K 'Made In China' Model 3's in Q2, helping to offset declines in the US and European markets. I think this is a silver lining to the Tesla story right now that not enough people appreciate. Revenue, profits and cashflow from Tesla Shanghai are growing by the day.
April 2, 2020
Tesla reports record Q1 production of 103K vehicles, and record Q1 deliveries of 88K. Model Y production is scaling, and Shanghai Gigafactory output keeps climbing. These numbers were far better than my estimates, and signal Tesla's business was thriving before the economic shutdown. Here's my take on the delivery & production report.
March 31, 2020
I'm conservatively expecting Tesla will deliver ~65,000 cars in Q1, growing about 5% year over year. This factors in the factory shutdown at the end of March, and the macro economic crisis that has been unfolding. I've updated my full year delivery estimates to just 350,000. I hope I'm being too negative, but am preparing for the worst. In this video I show how this level of deliveries will impact Tesla's financials.
March 31, 2020
Is Peloton selling a $2,245 exercise bike? Or democratizing home fitness? A little bit of both. This dynamic business model combination of luxury hardware and premium software streaming classes, is disrupting the fitness industry. I'm a new Peloton shareholder, and think the company has huge potential to expand into new products (like the Tread and rowing machine), lower prices, and expand into digital content (Peloton App).
March 26, 2020
GM and Ford reported huge (and growing) losses in Q4 2019, before the economic crisis began. Both companies have suspended 2020 guidance and have drawn down $15B+ on credit lines. Are we witnessing a slow motion implosion/bankruptcy for America's two largest automakers? It looks like it. Reuters reports, both companies are planning to make 320,000 EVs for North America in 2026 (combined!) ... that would be less than Tesla did in 2019. This is super disappointing, and makes their chance of a turnaround look even lower.
March 24, 2020
I've been adding to my Bitcoin position in the past week. The cryptocurrency currently trades at a network value of $120B, or just about 4.5% of the $2.7T it moves annually. This compares to fintech companies like Paypal, that trade at ~14% of annualized money moved. I think the long-term thesis for Bitcoin to become digital gold, and be worth several $T in network value is more intact than ever. Governmental policies reacting to this economic crisis will fuel more fiat currency printing, and potentially negative interest rates ... these macroeconomic conditions are making more more bullish on the need for Bitcoin than ever. The only way to get out of this crisis will be to print absurd amounts of capital (for both the US and Europe). What are your thoughts about Bitcoin's potential and valuation??
March 23, 2020
S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2020 are dropping rapidly, as analysts price in the impact of this unprecedented economic crisis. Estimates have fallen more than 4% in just the past month, and I think they will fall another 10% (at least) next month. Right now, my rough guesstimate for 2020 S&P 500 EBIT per share is $100 ... about 39% lower than they were in 2019 (~$163). What is your guess? Do you think markets will fall lower?
March 22, 2020
Today on Twitter Donald Trump gave the go ahead to Tesla, GM and Ford to begin manufacturing ventilators, to deal with a potential shortage. Tesla has significant experience building HVAC systems in house, since the days of its original roadster (2008), as well as 'BioWeapon Defense Mode' for the Model X. I think this is an awesome story, and is a reason I'm proud to own Tesla stock!
March 20, 2020
Tesla has released an official 'Operational Update' about dealing with the current economic crisis. The company is shutting down both its Fremont, CA and Buffalo, NY factories for an indefinite period of time (my guess is at least two weeks). Tesla says it has plenty of cash on hand to "successfully navigate an extended period of uncertainty." I think the silver lining to all of this Tesla news is Shanghai's Gigafactory. It appears to be up and running and producing vehicles at record levels. This should help offset losses from Fremont going forward. At this time, Gigafactory Nevada will remain open.
March 20, 2020
Zoom stock is up 82% in 2020, outperforming nearly every asset in the world. Can this recent video conference IPO live up to the hype of its $40B valuation? In this video, I analyze Zoom's financials, growth rate, and what the long-term potential will be if Eric Yuan's vision is realized. What are your thoughts on Zoom?
March 19, 2020
Elon Musk offered to help make medical supplies for US hospitals (like ventilators, masks, etc) and Mayor de Blasio is taking him up on the offer. After a long twitter exchange (prompted by Nate Silver), it appears as if Tesla/SpaceX are reaching out to the New York City government and may supply them with direly needed medical equipment. I think this is an awesome initiative by Elon, and could be a win/win. NYC gets help, and Tesla's factory employees have something to do.
March 17, 2020
The WSJ reports that US airlines are looking for a ~$50B bailout/stimulus package in this midst of this economic turmoil. This has become a hot topic, as airlines spent tens of billions buying back their own stock during the past decade. Now they are turning to taxpayers to get them out of this rut .. when they should have been fortifying their balance sheets. What do you think? Is this fair? Should we bail them out? I think this is just the beginning of a lot of government stimulus ...
March 16, 2020
The market continues to free-fall as concerns mount about how a prolonged shutdown will impact the global economy. In this video I explore what will happen to Tesla's financials if a multi-quarter slowdown in the global economy unfolds. Will Tesla need more capital? Will they be able to survive?
March 15, 2020
Tesla has reach a production run-rate of 1,000 roofs/week (4MW), for its highly anticipated solarglass roof product. At $30K/roof, this implies a revenue run-rate of $1.5B+, and is likely growing rapidly. This milestone should accelerate energy generation (solar) deployment growth for Tesla in the coming quarters.
March 15, 2020
Waymo has partnered with Transdev to hire a fleet of drivers for its 'robotaxi' network. This deal, potentially in the hundreds of millions, signals Waymo is falling behind on its ambitious plans for Waymo One, its self-driving service. Waymo just raised $2.25B from outside investors at a $30B valuation, another sign Alphabet is distancing itself from the project. I still think Tesla is winning the self-driving race.
March 13, 2020
Sean Mitchell has been on the ground working to pass bill 167, which would allow electric vehicle makers to sell direct to consumers in the state of Colorado. This has gained major traction, and will make it easier for startups like Tesla & Rivian to compete in the state. If this is successful, this could cause a domino effect and allow Tesla to sell direct in other states where its been previously banned (Texas, Connecticut, etc).Thanks to Sean for coming on the show, and props for all of the work on this!
March 11, 2020
Elon Musk has confirmed via Tweet that Tesla is scouting locations for a "central US" gigafactory to build the Cybertruck & Model Y (for the east coast). Initially rumored to be in Texas, reports also indicate Nashville is in the running for this new location. My personal guess is the Austin, TX area will be selected ...
March 10, 2020
Twitter has come to an agreement with activist funds Elliott Management and Silver Lake Partners, that will keep Jack Dorsey on as CEO. Twitter is also issuing 2020 guidance for 20% mDAU growth, and accelerating revenue growth. Additionally, the company is launching a $2B share buyback. What are your thoughts on these changes??
March 9, 2020
Cash App posted Q4 2019 revenue of $361M (+147%) year, and is on pace to post more than $1.5B+ in 2020 revenue. Recent launches of stock investing (with no minimums) and international payments show a rapid pace of innovation & represent exciting new revenue opportunities. Cash App is quietly becoming a digital bank. With 24M MAU's (growing 60%), this is poised to be a growth driver for Square for years to come.
March 5, 2020
Today GM held an 'EV Day' to announce its plans for electrifying it's vehicle lineup. I commend the effort ... but the presentation was full of boring/meaningless business lingo and very short on any details about pricing, timing, specifications or profitability. I'm eagerly awaiting details on the Bolt EUV, Cadillac Lyric & Hummer EV that should be released in the coming months ...
March 4, 2020
According to tweets by Elon Musk, Tesla is poised to release a new 'Plaid' Model S sometime later this year. This new tri-motor powertrain/battery design will improve performance and be the 'next generation' of Tesla's technology. I think there is a huge pent of demand for 'Plaid' and Tesla has an opportunity to make billions in incremental gross profit if they price it accordingly.
March 3, 2020
Elliott Management/Billionaire Paul Singer have reportedly taken a stake in Twitter, and are pushing for Jack Dorsey to be removed as CEO. This is BS. Elliott Management doesn't even use Twitter, and they are completely ignoring the progress Jack has made since returning to Twitter in late 2015. In this video I break down the metrics justifying Dorsey's success and my argument for why he should remain on as CEO.
March 2, 2020
Interview with Jack Conte, about his journey from creative to CEO/Co-Founder of Patreon. By allowing artists to monetize their work, and build relationships with their closest fans, Patreon is empowering a new generation of creatives. I think the world desperately needs this artistic and creative energy, and Patreon has huge potential to build an incredible business around it. Kevin & I have been huge fans of Jack for years, and we were so thankful for this opportunity to hangout with one of the most inspirational entrepreneurs & creators in the world. Thank you Jack!!
February 25, 2020
Lyft shares are down ~37% from their IPO, as losses keep mounting and competitive pressure increases. Revenue growth has slowed dramatically from 100%+ a year ago, to 54% in Q4, to guidance for just 28% in 2020. Will the company survive and be able to fend off Uber? Or is Lyft a sweet acquisition candidate for Google/Waymo ... or even Amazon?
February 21, 2020
Elon Musk claims Tesla's battery modules are no longer necessary, and hints that cell to pack technology could be the future of batteries. This lines up with an October 2019 "aggregated battery system" patent filed by Tesla Cell Engineer Kevin Matthews. Additionally, Tesla is rumored to be working with CATL on a new battery supply agreement. In late 2019, CATL announced new cell to pack technology that greatly reduced the cost, complexity and increased the energy efficiency of its batteries. My guess is, Tesla will announce a redesigned battery pack without modules at April's Battery & Powertrain investor day.
February 21, 2020
Snap grew its userbase 17% in 2019 to 218M DAUs, revenue hit $1.7B (+45%), and profitability improved. What's next for 2020? If Snap can continue to grow its engagement, it will get very close to profitability. I'm waiting for a new version of Spectacles to be released, with more AR features. Do you think Evan Spiegel can compete with Instagram and TikTok?
February 19, 2020
Reuters is reporting that Tesla is partnering with Chinese battery supplier CATL, to build Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP), Cobalt-free, Prismatic battery cells for the Made In China Model 3. WHAT!? This is huge/totally unexpected news about Tesla's battery supply chains, and brings up far more questions than answers. Why is Tesla using less energy dense cells? Are they that much cheaper? Is Maxwell's DBE tech involved?!
February 14, 2020
Tesla surprises the market and announces a $2B+ capital raise. This will give the company capital to accelerate new Gigafactory plans (Texas?), and ramp battery production (Maxwell?), while only diluting by 1.5%. In its newly release 10K, Tesla has upped its CAPEX guidance to $2.5-$3.5B annually, for the next 2-3 years. Additionally, this raise will give the company a bigger cash cushion if a recession were to hit.
February 12, 2020
Louisville Colorado (just 20 minutes north of Denver), has become a hotbed for next generation EV batteries. Now Tesla is hiring for a 'Cell Technician' in the area to "assist anode development and optimization R&D." Additionally, the candidate is required to understand "electrode fabrication, delicate assembly of coin cells, cell dissection, running cell tests and data analysis & lab-scale electrode slurry mixing and electrode coating" .... Interesting! Could Tesla be partnering with one of these startups, Solid Power, Forge Nano or SilLion?
February 11, 2020
SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell hinted at a potential IPO/spinout of SpaceX's internet satellite project, Starlink, at a recent investor conference. This is incredibly exciting for all Elon Musk supporters, but begs the question ... why not just IPO SpaceX? In this off the cuff podcast, I discuss a potential strategy SpaceX could use to direct list its shares on a new private exchange like Carta, to make its equity accessible to its biggest supporters.
February 8, 2020
A breakdown of Rivian's self-driving hardware, and how the company plans to rollout autonomy features for its customers. With 10 cameras, 4 radars, 2 lidars, ultrasonic sensors and high-precision GPS, each Rivian is equipped with more tech than a Tesla! But does that mean they will be able to compete on true general autonomy???
February 6, 2020
The coronavirus originating in Wuhan China has infected 24,000+ people in 24 countries. If it keeps spreading, this could be a near-term headwind for the macro growth environment. Is this a threat to global financial markets? Will this significantly delay the growth of Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory?
January 30, 2020
Analysis of Tesla's Q4 2019 financials, shareholder letter and conference call. Revenue hit a record high of $$7.4B, EBIT was $359M and Free Cash Flow came in at $1B. Model Y deliveries start in Q1, Demand for the Cybertruck and Made in China Model 3's is overwhelming. Battery investor day will likely be in April, and will have some huge announcements about scaling battery production and Tesla's next generation Plaid powertrain
January 29, 2020
Netflix reported record revenue ($20B) and record earnings ($2.6B) in 2019 ... but also record negative operating cashflow of $2.9B. The company claims cashflow will improve from here as subscriber growth and revenue outpace original content spending. Will this be possible in the wake of massive competition from Disney, Comcast and others ... ?
January 27, 2020
Tesla will report its earnings after the bell on Wednesday. I'm estimating revenue of ~$7B, and EBIT of ~$400M, with exceptionally strong free cash flow ($700M!?). Additionally, I'll be looking for an update on Model Y deliveries, Gigafactory Shanghai production ramp and 2020 delivery guidance. What are your expectations for Tesla's report later this week??
January 19, 2020
An interview with Matt Joyce about Elon Musk's VTOL Electric Jet idea & how it could revolutionize the flying experience. Assuming ~5% annual improvements in battery energy density, this technology could be ready as soon as 2028.
January 8, 2020
At the Model 3 delivery event in Shanghai, Elon Musk hinted at Tesla's future plans in China. The company will set up a new design and engineering center, where they are planning to design a new EV from scratch, for "worldwide consumption." Does this imply Tesla is working on a smaller car/new EV form factor that they will build in China and export around the world? It sounds like it!
January 8, 2020
Apple changed the way we think about phones, and Tesla is going to change the way we think about cars. Software is eating the world, and the automotive market is no exception. Tesla's software-first approach to building EVs & the collection of billions of miles of Autopilot data, is ushering in the future of the transportation industry. This isn't a car company, it's a computer on wheels on company :)
December 29, 2019
Tomorrow (December 30th), Tesla will deliver its first 15 'Made In China' Model 3s! This marks a huge milestone for Gigafactory 3 Shanghai, which began construction in 2019, and has vehicles rolling off the line just 11 months later ... This may be the fastest a factory has been built in the history of the automotive industry. Now the question is how fast will these sales ramp? I'm estimating Tesla will deliver ~80,000 Model 3's in China in 2020, and end the year at a ~150,000 cars/yr production rate.
December 21, 2019
Is your Model 3 a $40,000 electric vehicle, or a $40,000 video game console? Both!! In the past year Tesla has began to launch video games you can play in your car. I think this is a sneak preview of entertainment in a self-driving/autonomous future & an amazing example of the possibilities that over the air software updates enable. In the long-term, Tesla's active user/driver/rider-base will be in the Ms (~800K today) and offer a compelling opportunity for 3rd party app & game developers ... I think video games alone could be a $1B+ business for the company in the long-run ... Am I crazy?
December 19, 2019
Tesla stock hits all-time highs as the market begins to look towards 2020, and the company's growth potential with Gigafactory 3 Shanghai and the Model Y. Per my estimates, Tesla could deliver 615,000 cars in 2020, produce $36B in revenue and be significantly profitable. What are your projections for next year??
December 17, 2019
Exclusive interview with Rahul Sonnad, the CEO/Co-Founder of Tesloop, a Tesla rental service. Tesloop has operated a fleet of 8 Tesla's (and growing) and driven them millions of miles offering rides & rentals to its customers. Through this process, they have incredible data proving the service & maintenance savings of operating an EV versus an ICE car. This conversation is a sneak peak at how Tesla's ride-sharing ambitions will expand, and how the transportation industry will change as a result of self-driving (or even partially self-driving) vehicles.
December 16, 2019
An interview with Arcimoto CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer in LA at the LD Micro conference. Arcimoto is currently ramping production & deliveries of its Fun Utility Vehicle, a 3-wheel, all-electric two-seater that can go 100 miles per charge. In this video we also discuss the company's latest funding round, and the potential for partnerships with bigger companies like Uber & Tesla.
December 8, 2019
A conversation with Alex Heath, reporter with The Information. Alex is a thought leader in the world of augmented reality smartglasses, reporting on Snap Spectacles, Apple's rumored smartglasses, Facebook's mind control device project & more.
November 28, 2019
Tesla has launched the Cybertruck. Available for delivery in late 2021, starting at $39,900, and made out of a steel alloy exoskeleton. This Bladerunner-looking vehicle has taken over the internet and generated 250,000 pre-orders in just 5 days. Are we looking at the future of trucks, or has Elon Musk lost his mind? I think demand will be at least 350,000 units per year, and drive significant shareholder value. If the Cybertruck sells 1M units per year (as much as the Ford F-series), it could generate $50B of incremental revenue & $5B in incremental profit for Tesla.
November 9, 2019
This episode is brought to you by FOUR Organic Lip Balm, use the code 'hyperchange' for 10% off :) https://fourorganicsnyc.com/ My moonshot/conspiracy theory that Tesla has been secretly working with John Goodenough, to commercialize his next generation solid-state lithium-ion glass electrolyte battery. The timeline of the research paper, clues about Tesla testing solid state batteries, and the move into cell production make me think something is up. Am I crazy?
November 8, 2019
This episode is brought to you by FOUR Organic Lip Balm, use the code 'hyperchange' for 10% off :) https://fourorganicsnyc.com/ Bloomberg reports that Tesla has signed a preliminary partnership with Chinese battery maker CATL, to supply battery cells for the Model 3 at Gigafactory Shanghai. What does this mean for Tesla's relationship with Panasonic, and the company's potential to build there own battery cells??
November 6, 2019
This episode is brought to you by FOUR Organic Lip Balm, use the code 'hyperchange' for 10% off :) https://fourorganicsnyc.com/ An inside look at my (Galileo Russell's) personal investment portfolio. From Tesla, Bitcoin, Maker, Arcimoto to Snap, I walk step-by-step through each of my stocks/cryptoassets and explain my investment thesis.
October 30, 2019
HyperChat #15 - A sit down with Truman's CMO/Co-Founder Alex Reed to talk about disrupting the cleaning market, and entrepreneurship in 'boring' industries. Truman's DTC concentrate products, promise a simpler and more sustainable solution to household cleaning.
October 27, 2019
Tesla's solar roof is ready for primetime. The company has announced the launch of a V3 solar tiles, greatly reducing costs and installation time. Elon Musk claims the company is planning to ramp to installing 1,000 roofs/week in the next few months, and 10-20,000 per week in the long-term. This could be a multi-billion dollar revenue stream for Tesla in the coming years.
October 24, 2019
Full analysis and recap of Tesla's Q3 '19 financial results and conference call. So much news! Model Y is confirmed to arrive early (Summer 2020), Gigafactory 3 Shanghai is already building prototype Model 3s, and there will be a solar roof announcement tomorrow! Financially, the results were also impressive. A strong sequential improvement in gross margin, and tight cost control led to positive operating income of $261M, and free cash flow of $371M. With more cash than ever, and an epic product pipeline, Tesla's future has never been brighter.
October 6, 2019
HyperChat #14 - Arcimoto has began production of its 3-wheel EV, the Fun Utility Vehicle (FUV). This marks a major milestone for the Eugene, Oregon based startup, that has been developing this technology/product for over a decade now. In this episode I talk with CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer about Arcimoto's vision for the future or personal mobility.
September 30, 2019
HyperChat #13 ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ- An interview with Dan Blondal, the CEO of Nano One Materials, a battery manufacturing technology company. The company's patented process allows for faster, cheaper and more efficient production of cathodes (22% of lithium-ion batteries). Will this Canadian startup have success with some of its big name partners like Volkswagen & Pulead in bringing this tech to market?
September 26, 2019
AirBnb has anounced its plans to IPO in 2020. By my estimates the travel startup is on track to hit $10B in revenue in 2021, and could justify a valuation of $100B at the time of IPO. This is one of my favorite companies (and services) in the entire world. AirBnb is democratizing travel, making the world more accessible and empowering underserved communities ... I love it!
September 19, 2019
Tesla's Gigafactory 3 Shanghai continues to make rapid progress. With substation activation on track for the end of September, is the start of production right around the corner? It looks like it. A succesful Gigafactory 3 means Tesla will substantially grow its revenue, profits and cashflow. I think major catalyst is being overlooked by Wall Street & the financial media.
September 9, 2019
WeWork's S-1 IPO filing has been met with huge skepticism. From rapidly growing losses and weak gross margins, to self-dealing real-estate & IP deals with CEO/Founder Adam Neumann, The We Company is a fascinating case study. The company is rumored to be cutting its valuation in half (or more) after tepid demand from Wall Street. What are your thoughts on the IPO? Are we at peak startup bubble, or is this a disrupter??
September 8, 2019
Tesla's rapidly progressing Shanghai Gigafactory couldn't have better timing. As US/China trade war tensions ramp, a 25% automotive import tariff is set to take effect on December 15th. This is right when Tesla's 'Made In China' Model 3 is set to launch. What do you think about Tesla's prospects in China after Giga 3 has been completed?
September 1, 2019
HyperChat #12. I bring on Sean Mitchell, Denver real-estate agent/TeslaTuber to discuss his recent Sandy Munro interview, Tesla's acquisition of Maxwell Technologies, and his life creating EV content for YouTube.
August 30, 2019
Tesla insurance has finally launched! Starting in California and expanding soon to other states, customers have been able to see 20-30% savings over their legacy providers. In this episode I discuss the implications of Tesla's Insurance program, and how it lays a key foundation for the future of autonomy.
August 27, 2019
HyperChat #11. Turner Novak, expert Snap analyst, breaks down the company's future potential and augmented reality vision. From Spectacles 3, to AR Lenses, to Discover, Snapchat is quietly building a camera operating system for Gen Z. Do you think the company will be succesful in competing against the Zuck empire (Instagram & Facebook)? Become a #HyperChanger & support us on Patreon to receive the exclusive weekly HyperChange Newsletter!! https://www.patreon.com/hyperchange
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