On episode #19, the 2023 #bitcoin rally that took price from $16K to $30K appears to finally be collapsing as price technicals suggest more downside and an ETF is far, far away.
JJ opens the pod with a market review, noting BTC's momentum from the Echo Bubble appears to have faded and the hawkish language from the FED will dampen interest for risk assets for the near-term. Without a major catalyst, Bitcoin looks ready ends the year slightly above it's starting point near $20K, as the DXY remains strong and investors continue to invest in safe havens like the TLT ETF for Treasuries.
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Ben Lilly adds that a major move news event, such as the SEC suing #binance, could catalyze a move south. Kodi counters that the $25K zone has remained strong support throughout the year and shouldn't be discounted until it actually breaks.
Next, the team examines #avalanche and asks "Can it be a Beta Play" to #ethereum in the coming cycle. Kodi reviews the Avalanche technology stack, outlining the strengths and weaknesses of the ecosystem. While the system uses subnets and some interesting chain architecture, the review leaves little to suggest #AVAX will outperform #ETH on technology alone.
Next, Ben Lilly reviews the monetary policy and notes several weakness. While #AVAX has some use cases for staking, the supply is too high compared to usage and the ecosystem lacks investment diversity.
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Finally, JJ reviews the price technicals and concludes there is little to no support for the AVAX token. The team concludes unanimously that #AVAX, without significant changes to it's technology and monetary policy, will underperform ETH in the coming cycle.
Next, Kodi reviews three projects in the like or spike segment:
* MKR/ETH and MKR/USDT at 1-year highs
* Botanix announces a layer 2 for bitcoin that runs the EVM
* Eclipse announces a L2 rollup that runs the Solana Virtual Machine, settles to Ethereum and uses Celestia for data availability
The team departs from crypto and discusses the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and what it's price action might suggest for the broader market. While the price has declined significantly over the last year, demand continues to climb. Ben notes that the ETF tracks Treasury yields and the price moves are expected as the Fed attempts to normalize the yield curve. However, if the Fed reverses course, the ETF may witness a powerful move to the upside, becoming a hedge for investors.
Finally, the team answers the question "where would you invest outside of crypto for the next 10 years?" Kodi and JJ both note the investment potential of commodities in a market with continued inflation and excessive fiscal spending. Ben Lilly offers a nuanced approach, suggesting entrepreneurship might be an opportunity to outperform.
TL:DW - as always, we live in interesting and unpredictable times. Be patient, don't overextend yourself, and watch for opportunities on the horizon. And keep some dry powder. -- Marconi
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Disclosure Statement
This content is for entertainment purposes only. Nothing shared during this broadcast is or should be considered financial advice. The views and thoughts shared here are simply opinions. Do your own research and consult a registered financial advisor before making any investments.
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