Anthropic beat OpenAI to the IPO. Step one of going public: write down everything wrong with you and file it with the government. Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC, SpaceX is pricing in the trillions, and the pension funds are along for the ride. Hunter Powers and Daniel Bishop explain what an S-1 actually discloses, then ask whether this is the AI bubble's cash-out moment or the industry growing up. They weigh ChatGPT's claimed billion users against Claude's 56 million, free local models like Google's Gemma 4 against the $200-a-month frontier plans, and DeepSeek V4 at one-hundredth the cost. Plus enterprise AI bills failing the ROI math, the quiet walkback of AI job-loss predictions, and why an AI employee still costs more than the human it would replace.