Theo Jaffee Podcast
Theo Jaffee Podcast
Theo Jaffee
#16: Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen - Manifold, Manifund, Manifest, prediction markets, and EA
1 hour 23 minutes Posted Jun 13, 2024 at 5:49 pm.
Intro
Are prediction markets actually bad?
Would Manifold use real money if allowed?
How Manifold would use real money if allowed
Would Manifold use crypto if allowed?
Can you ever get long-term returns from prediction markets?
Would subsidies ruin markets?
Why Manifold beat real money on predicting the 2022 elections
Would Stephen implement futarchy?
Manifold Love
Bet on Love
Why Manifold is miscalibrated
Insider trading and market manipulation
Is it easier to make money on prediction markets or normal markets?
Good prediction market UI
Why should people trust market creators?
Derivatives on prediction markets
Stephen’s ginseng adventures
Audience Q: why don’t Americans consume American ginseng?
Audience Q: cancel culture and Richard Hanania
Audience Q: why aren’t there more institutional investors in prediction markets?
Audience Q: can journalists help resolve markets?
Audience Q: is there any role for sweepstakes other than regulatory arbitrage?
Are prediction markets insufficiently powerful?
What prediction markets can do if not futarchy
How Manifund was designed
How Manifund chooses regrantors
Why donate to Manifund?
Does Dustin Moskovitz have too much power over EA?
What Manifund would do differently with more money
How Manifest gets so many interesting people
How much did SBF’s fall damage EA?
OpenAI
Is this decade more important than other decades?
Why aren’t more philanthropic organizations open?
Manifund’s best projects
How short AGI timelines would affect Manifund
Audience Q: how Manifold ships fast
Outro
0:00
1:23:12
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Show notes
Stephen Grugett and Austin Chen are co-founders of Manifold Markets, an online play-money prediction market and competitive forecasting platform. Stephen currently serves on the company’s management, while Austin recently stepped down to start Manifund, a unique, open-source grant program. This video is not sponsored in any way by Manifold, Manifund, or Manifest - I just think they’re cool.
Chapters
Part 1: Stephen Grugett
Part 2: Austin Chen
Links
Manifold: https://manifold.markets
Manifund: https://manifund.com
Manifest: https://www.manifest.is
Manifold’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifoldmarkets
Manifund’s Twitter: https://x.com/manifund
Austin’s Twitter: https://x.com/akrolsmir
Transcript: https://www.theojaffee.com/p/16-stephen-grugett-and-austin-chen
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My Substack: https://www.theojaffee.com