The RO Show
The RO Show
Rosanna Prestia
How To Read CPI + Macroeconomics Talk | Aahan Menon Ep.5
1 hour 21 minutes Posted Jul 9, 2023 at 4:50 pm.
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Episode 5

On today's show I speak with Aahan, founder of Prometheus Research, a research service with the goal of democratizing finance making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.

1. Background of Macro research

  • Understanding underlying mechanisms over analyzing data
  • Monetary contracts and how we got here
  • Money grows faster than underlying labor and capital
  • Monetary policy - tighter is needed to tame inflation
  • Interest rates need to be higher than CPI to lower future inflation

2. Monetary and cost push inflation

  • Money infused into personal incomes and economy with production and labor
  • Fed tools
  • Lower real growth 
  • GDP growth
  • Nominal spending is greater than real spending

3. Stagflationary Nominal Growth with Tightening liquidity 

  • Returns not a feature of asset class but a feature of sample selection
  • Pressures on production and employment increasing
  • Lower output and less need for employment
  • Returns on assets relative to cash is negative
  • Real incomes and spending weaker so business sales also weaker

4. Allocations

  • Cash, commodities, bonds, dollar

5. Stagflation

 

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