Retail is holding… until it isn't.

March delivered modest growth on paper, but the underlying story tells a very different picture.

In this episode of The Retail Scoreboard Podcast, we break down the March data and unpack why the final weeks of the month saw a sharp shift in momentum across Australian retail.

What we cover:

• March performance:
Like-for-like sales up just 1%, with unit growth (+0.6%) and transactions (+2%) doing the heavy lifting
Discounting increased significantly (+4.1%), putting pressure on margins
Average transaction value and units per transaction both declined

• The real story — the last 2 weeks:
Significant declines across stores, outlets and concessions
Online growth driven largely by heavy discounting
Momentum dropped off sharply heading into month-end

• Channel breakdown:
Outlets and standalone stores led early in the month
Concessions and online remained soft overall
Afterpay sales week underperformed vs last year

• What's driving it:
Fuel prices rising sharply through March
Interest rate increases mid-month
Consumer confidence continuing to fall
Cost-of-living pressure accelerating

• What happens next:
More discounting and promotional activity
Increased focus on cost cutting and productivity
Tighter inventory management
Potential store closures for underperforming locations

The key takeaway?
This isn't a short-term dip. The next 4–6 weeks will be critical in shaping retail sentiment as we move into the new financial year.

Listen to the full episode for a deeper breakdown of the data and what it means for your business.