The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
"The Most Performative Interest Rate Hike Ever"
23 minutes Posted Sep 18, 2026 at 8:57 am.
Welcome and Fed Week
Why the Fed Matters
Performative Rate Hike
Politics and Independence
Midterms and Next Hike
Unanimous Vote Rationale
Bond Market Reaction
Stocks and Volatility
Practical Takeaways
Closing Thoughts
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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuI
David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Trump, including Trump’s post calling for 1% rates while diverting attention to trade deficits. Bahnsen highlights the unanimous 12–0 vote, the Fed’s focus on price stability amid supply-shock pressures, and the neutral mechanics of paying 3.9% on reserves. He reviews muted bond-market moves, elevated mortgage rates near 7%, and cautions against overreading immediate stock-market reactions, emphasizing earnings, AI, oil, and valuations as bigger drivers than the fed funds rate.
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