The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Tuesday - August 25, 2026
8 minutes Posted Aug 25, 2026 at 9:21 pm.
Welcome and Setup
Market Rally Recap
Rates Oil and Data
Earnings and Multiples
Valuation Reality Check
Rotation to Value
Labor Force Demographics
Wrap Up and Disclosures
0:00
8:02
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Show notes
Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing index, reinforcing macro-driven moves. He notes the S&P is up about 12% YTD while earnings rose around 15–16%, leading to multiple contraction to about 18.8x forward earnings, though other valuation measures (EV/sales, Shiller CAPE, price-to-book/sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow) remain near historically overvalued levels. He also addresses declining prime-age male labor participation and argues immigration trends show little correlation, pointing instead to broader societal and economic factors.
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TheBahnsenGroup.com