The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Monday - August 17, 2026
14 minutes Posted Aug 17, 2026 at 8:59 pm.
Welcome and Charlottesville
Market Close Recap
AI CapEx and GDP
Yield Curve Steepening
Senate Polling Outlook
Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds
Housing Affordability Chart
Fed Signals and Jackson Hole
Oil Prices and Rig Counts
Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up
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Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m
From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com