The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Inflation vs. Deflation in an Age of AI
22 minutes Posted Jul 24, 2026 at 4:19 pm.
Welcome and Setup
Inflation Beyond Headlines
The Disinflation Era 1990-2020
Lacy Hunt and Debt Dynamics
Was Globalization the Driver
Is Globalization Really Ending
AI as the New Productivity Wave
Funding the Buildout
Two AI Outcomes Deflation Either Way
Final Takeaways and Signoff
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22:02
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Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh
David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth.
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