The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe
The Bahnsen Group
Monday - May 11, 2026
18 minutes Posted May 11, 2026 at 8:41 pm.
Welcome and Agenda
S&P Valuations Warning
Dividend Yield at Lows
Iran Risk Ignored
Earnings Driving Markets
Earnings Caveat AI
Geopolitics Headlines
Policy and Taxes Update
SEC Reporting Shift
Jobs and Consumers
Beef Tariffs Note
Housing Market Pulse
Fed Leadership Change
Oil Curve Backwardation
Ask TBG and Wrap Up
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Show notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Resx8f
From New York City, this Monday Dividend Cafe covers markets’ growing desensitization to Iran-related news even as oil nears $98.50, the 10-year yield rises to ~4.41%, and major indices sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 appears expensive across valuation metrics, with dividend yield near a historic low (~1.08%), highlighting reliance on price returns versus cash income. The host argues earnings are currently driving markets, but notes a caveat: “other income” was 34% of net income, boosted by hyperscalers marking up private AI holdings. He reviews sector performance (energy best, communication services worst), policy items (possible reconciliation bill ideas like indexing capital gains to inflation; Virginia redistricting ruling; SEC exploring semi-annual reporting), economic data (115k jobs; weak manufacturing; low consumer confidence), housing trends, Fed leadership transition to Kevin Warsh, and rising longer-dated oil price expectations.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com